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Net-zero Deep Decarbonization Pathways in Latin America: Challenges and Opportunities

Author

Listed:
  • Bataille, Christopher
  • Waisman, Henri
  • Vogt-Schilb, Adrien
  • Jaramillo, Marcela
  • Delgado, Ricardo
  • Arguello, Ricardo
  • Clarke, Leon
  • Wild, Thomas
  • Lallana, Francisco
  • Bravo, Gonzalo
  • Le Treut, Gaëlle
  • Nadal, Gustavo
  • Godinez, Guido
  • Quirós-Tortos, Jairo
  • Pereira, Eunice
  • Howells, Mark
  • Buira, Daniel
  • Tovilla, Jordi
  • Farbes, Jamil
  • Ryan, Jones
  • De La Torre Ugarte, Daniel
  • Collado, Mauricio
  • Requejo, Fernando
  • Gómez, Ximena
  • Soria, Rafael
  • Villamar, Daniel
  • Rochedo, Pedro
  • Imperio, Mariana
  • Briand, Yann
  • Svensson, Johannes

Abstract

This synthesis paper presents the objectives, approach and cross-cutting results of the Latin American Deep Decarbonization Pathways project (DDPLAC). It synthesizes and compares detailed national and sectoral deep decarbonization pathways (DDPs) to 2050 compatible with the Paris Agreement objectives and domestic development priorities in Argentina, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Mexico and Peru. The first five countries analysed in detail the energy system and agriculture, forestry and land use (AFOLU) at a high level, while Peru focussed on a detailed analysis of AFOLU given its predominance in its GHG emissions. While economy-wide results were produced, this paper focuses on the electricity, passenger transport, and AFOLU results because of their current emissions, potential to grow, and identification of successful strategies for decarbonization (e.g. switching to clean electricity and switching to other net- zero fuels across the economy; urban planning, mode shifting, and electrification in passenger transport; and intensive sustainable agriculture, assignment of land use rights and their enforcement and afforestation in AFOLU). It also highlights where significant emissions remain in 2050, notably in industry, AFOLU, freight, and oil and gas production, all areas for future research. It also derives insights for the design of domestic policy packages and identifies priorities for international cooperation. This analysis provides critical information for Long-Term Strategies, Nationally Determined Contributions and Global Stocktaking in the context of the Paris Agreement.

Suggested Citation

  • Bataille, Christopher & Waisman, Henri & Vogt-Schilb, Adrien & Jaramillo, Marcela & Delgado, Ricardo & Arguello, Ricardo & Clarke, Leon & Wild, Thomas & Lallana, Francisco & Bravo, Gonzalo & Le Treut,, 2020. "Net-zero Deep Decarbonization Pathways in Latin America: Challenges and Opportunities," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 10702, Inter-American Development Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:idb:brikps:10702
    DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.18235/0002717
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Gaëlle Le Treut & Julien Lefevre & Francisco Lallana & Gonzalo Bravo, 2021. "The multi-level economic impacts of deep decarbonization strategies for the energy system," Post-Print hal-03663085, HAL.
    2. Le Treut, Gaëlle & Lefèvre, Julien & Lallana, Francisco & Bravo, Gonzalo, 2021. "The multi-level economic impacts of deep decarbonization strategies for the energy system," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    3. Dan Welsby & Baltazar Solano Rodriguez & Pye Steve & Adrien Vogt-Schilb, 2022. "High and Dry: Stranded Natural Gas Reserves and Fiscal Revenues in Latin America and the Caribbean," Working Papers halshs-03410049, HAL.
    4. Janeth Carolina Godoy & Daniel Villamar & Rafael Soria & César Vaca & Thomas Hamacher & Freddy Ordóñez, 2021. "Preparing the Ecuador’s Power Sector to Enable a Large-Scale Electric Land Transport," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(18), pages 1-22, September.
    5. Daniel Neves Schmitz Gonçalves & George Vasconcelos Goes & Márcio de Almeida D’Agosto & Emilio Lebre La Rovere, 2022. "Development of Policy-Relevant Dialogues on Barriers and Enablers for the Transition to Low-Carbon Mobility in Brazil," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(24), pages 1-17, December.
    6. Espinoza, Vicente Sebastian & Fontalvo, Javier & Martí-Herrero, Jaime & Miguel, Luis Javier & Mediavilla, Margarita, 2022. "Analysis of energy future pathways for Ecuador facing the prospects of oil availability using a system dynamics model. Is degrowth inevitable?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).
    7. Bryan K. Mignone & Leon Clarke & James A. Edmonds & Angelo Gurgel & Howard J. Herzog & Jeremiah X. Johnson & Dharik S. Mallapragada & Haewon McJeon & Jennifer Morris & Patrick R. O’Rourke & Sergey Pal, 2024. "Drivers and implications of alternative routes to fuels decarbonization in net-zero energy systems," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-14, December.
    8. Xin Su & Frédéric Ghersi & Fei Teng & Gaëlle Le Treut & Meicong Liang, 2022. "The economic impact of a deep decarbonisation pathway for China: a hybrid model analysis through bottom-up and top-down linking," Post-Print hal-03897206, HAL.
    9. Victor-Gallardo, Luis & Zúñiga, Mónica Rodríguez & Quirós-Tortós, Jairo & Jaramillo, Marcela & Vogt-Schilb, Adrien, 2024. "Policy options to mitigate the fiscal impact of road transport decarbonization: Application to Costa Rica," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    10. Francisco Lallana & Gonzalo Bravo & Gaëlle Le Treut & Julien Lefevre & Gustavo Nadal & Nicolás Di Sbroiavacca, 2021. "Exploring deep decarbonization pathways for Argentina," Post-Print hal-03663087, HAL.
    11. Plazas-Niño, F.A. & Ortiz-Pimiento, N.R. & Montes-Páez, E.G., 2022. "National energy system optimization modelling for decarbonization pathways analysis: A systematic literature review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    12. Yang, Xi & Pang, Jun & Teng, Fei & Gong, Ruixin & Springer, Cecilia, 2021. "The environmental co-benefit and economic impact of China's low-carbon pathways: Evidence from linking bottom-up and top-down models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Energy; Development; decarbonization; AFOLU; decarbonization pathways;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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