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The emergence of debt and secular stagnation in an unequal society: a stockflow consistent agent-based approach

Author

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  • Claudius Graebner-Radkowitsch

    (Institute for Socio-Economics, University of Duisburg-Essen, Germany; Institute for Comprehensive Analysis of the Economy, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria; ZOE Institute for future-fit Economies, Bonn, Germany; International lnstitute of Management and Economic Education, Europa-Universitaet Flennsburg, Germany)

  • Anna Hornykewycz

    (Institute for Comprehensive Analysis of the Economy, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria)

  • Bernhard Schuetz

    (Institute for Comprehensive Analysis of the Economy, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria)

Abstract

We use an agent-based stock-flow consistent model of a closed economy without technological change that considers different classes of households, status consumption and a Minskyan banking sector to analyze the relationship between rising saving rates, the accumulation and distribution of private financial wealth and the evolution of public debt. Conducting a series of experiments, we find evidence for Keynes’ famous claim that a rise in the propensity to save will not necessarily be matched by a rise in the propensity to invest, culminating in either chronic government deficits or consistently high unemployment rates if the government refuses to accept those deficits. The result emerges endogenously from the interaction of fully decentralized agents. The model indicates that promoting consumer credit can at best provide a very short-lived relief to this problem.

Suggested Citation

  • Claudius Graebner-Radkowitsch & Anna Hornykewycz & Bernhard Schuetz, 2022. "The emergence of debt and secular stagnation in an unequal society: a stockflow consistent agent-based approach," ICAE Working Papers 135, Johannes Kepler University, Institute for Comprehensive Analysis of the Economy.
    • Handle: RePEc:ico:wpaper:135
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Bernhard Schuetz, 2022. "Investment booms, diverging competitiveness and wage growth within a monetary union: An AB-SFC model," ICAE Working Papers 138, Johannes Kepler University, Institute for Comprehensive Analysis of the Economy.
    2. Branimir Jovanović & Michael Landesmann & Oliver Reiter & Bernhard Schütz, 2023. "Structural Change, Income Distribution and Unemployment Related to COVID-19: An Agent-based Model," wiiw Working Papers 223, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.

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    Keywords

    propensity to save; wealth accumulation; public debt; unequal distribution of income and wealth; consumer credit; household bankruptcy; agent-based stock-flow consistent modeling;
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