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Inequality and imbalances: a monetary union agent-based model

Author

Listed:
  • Alberto Cardaci

    (Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore)

  • Francesco Saraceno

    (OFCE-SciencesPo
    LUISS-SEP)

Abstract

Our paper investigates the impact of rising inequality in a two-country macroeconomic model with an agent-based household sector characterized by peer effects in consumption. In particular, the model highlights the role of inequality in determining diverging balance of payments dynamics within a currency union. Inequality may drive the two countries into different growth patterns: where peer effects in consumption interact with higher credit availability, rising income inequality leads to the emergence of a debt-led growth. Where social norms determine weaker emulation and credit availability is lower, an export-led regime arises. Eventually, a crisis emerges endogenously due to the sudden-stop of capital flows from the net lending country, triggered by the excessive risk associated with the dramatic amount of private debt accumulated by households in the borrowing country. Monte Carlo simulations for a wide range of calibrations confirm the robustness of our results.

Suggested Citation

  • Alberto Cardaci & Francesco Saraceno, 2019. "Inequality and imbalances: a monetary union agent-based model," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 853-890, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:joevec:v:29:y:2019:i:3:d:10.1007_s00191-019-00611-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s00191-019-00611-4
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    3. Gräbner-Radkowitsch, Claudius & Heimberger, Philipp & Kapeller, Jakob & Landesmann, Michael & Schütz, Bernhard, 2022. "The evolution of debtor-creditor relationships within a monetary union: Trade imbalances, excess reserves and economic policy," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 262-289.
    4. Bernhard Schuetz, 2022. "Investment booms, diverging competitiveness and wage growth within a monetary union: An AB-SFC model," ICAE Working Papers 138, Johannes Kepler University, Institute for Comprehensive Analysis of the Economy.
    5. Bashir Ahmad Joo & Simtiha Ishaq Mir, 2024. "Evolution of the Household Debt Narrative: A PRISMA-compliant Systematic Literature Review," Paradigm, , vol. 28(1), pages 84-100, June.
    6. Polyzos, Stathis & Samitas, Aristeidis & Katsaiti, Marina-Selini, 2020. "Who is unhappy for Brexit? A machine-learning, agent-based study on financial instability," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    7. Emiliano Brancaccio & Mauro Gallegati & Raffaele Giammetti, 2022. "Neoclassical influences in agent‐based literature: A systematic review," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(2), pages 350-385, April.
    8. Alberto Cardaci & Francesco Saraceno, 2019. "Between Scylla And Charybdis: Income Distribution, Consumer Credit, And Business Cycles," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 57(2), pages 953-971, April.
    9. Caiani, Alessandro & Catullo, Ermanno & Gallegati, Mauro, 2019. "The effects of alternative wage regimes in a monetary union: A multi-country agent based-stock flow consistent model," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 389-416.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inequality; Current account; Currency union; Agent-based model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies

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