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EU-Osterweiterung: Beachtliche Gewinne für die deutsche Volkswirtschaft

Author

Listed:
  • Baas, Timo
  • Brücker, Herbert

    (Institute for Employment Research (IAB), Nuremberg, Germany)

  • Hönekopp, Elmar

Abstract

"Seit der EU-Erweiterung im Jahr 2004 gehören acht neue mittel- und osteuropäische Mitgliedsstaaten (NMS-8) zur Europäischen Union. Am 1. Januar 2007 kamen Bulgarien und Rumänien dazu. Die Entwicklung von Handel, Kapitalverkehr und Migration zwischen Deutschland und den NMS-8 ist seither durchweg günstig verlaufen: Bei dynamischer Entwicklung des Außenhandels verzeichnet Deutschland hohe Überschüsse in der Handels- und Leistungsbilanz. Die befürchtete Billiglohnkonkurrenz auf den Gütermärkten hat nur marginale Preisänderungen verursacht. Der reglementierte Arbeitsmarktzugang für Arbeitskräfte aus den NMS-8 hat zu einer moderaten Nettozuwanderung geführt. Das IAB hat die positiven Wirkungen der EU-Osterweiterung nun mit Modellrechnungen bis zum Jahr 2011 bestätigt. Es wurden drei Szenarien simuliert, die folgende Effekte zeigen: - Auch bei Freizügigkeit der Arbeitskräfte ist mit hohen Wohlfahrtsgewinnen durch Handel und Kapitalverkehr zu rechnen. - Freizügigkeit erhöht BIP und Beschäftigung in Deutschland zusätzlich. - Lohnwachstum und Rückgang der Arbeitslosigkeit sind mit Freizügigkeit etwas geringer als ohne, aber immer noch spürbar. - Von der Veränderung der Sektorstruktur bei Freizügigkeit sind auch positive Arbeitsmarkteffekte zu erwarten. Insgesamt kann eine positive Bilanz der EU-Osterweiterung für Deutschland gezogen werden." (Autorenreferat, IAB-Doku)

Suggested Citation

  • Baas, Timo & Brücker, Herbert & Hönekopp, Elmar, 2007. "EU-Osterweiterung: Beachtliche Gewinne für die deutsche Volkswirtschaft," IAB-Kurzbericht 200706, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].
    • Handle: RePEc:iab:iabkbe:200706
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    File URL: https://doku.iab.de/kurzber/2007/kb0607.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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