IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hnb/wpaper/8.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A Comparison of Two Econometric Models (OLS and SUR) for Forecasting Croatian Tourism Arrivals

Author

Listed:
  • Tihomir Stučka

Abstract

Tourism receipts have a large impact on the Croatian economy. The large inflow of foreign exchange during the summer season provides not just income but also a stabilising effect on the local currency, the kuna. The author compares two demand models using OLS and SUR estimation techniques. The model is a system of equations covering five countries, which represent around 72%-78% of total foreign annual arrivals. The model describes arrivals to be a function of the home country’s real GDP and the real exchange rate. Based on estimates of forecasting accuracy, it seems that the SUR model yields more precise predictions of foreign arrivals.

Suggested Citation

  • Tihomir Stučka, 2002. "A Comparison of Two Econometric Models (OLS and SUR) for Forecasting Croatian Tourism Arrivals," Working Papers 8, The Croatian National Bank, Croatia.
    • Handle: RePEc:hnb:wpaper:8
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.hnb.hr/repec/hnb/wpaper/pdf/w-008.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Blough, Stephen R, 1992. "The Relationship between Power and Level for Generic Unit Root Tests in Finite Samples," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(3), pages 295-308, July-Sept.
    2. Raymond Y.C. Tse, 1999. "A Simultaneous Model of Tourism Flow, Spending and Receipts," Tourism Economics, , vol. 5(3), pages 251-260, September.
    3. Ron Ayres, 1998. "Demand Theory Reconsidered: Reflections on the Demand for Tourism in Cyprus," Tourism Economics, , vol. 4(4), pages 353-365, December.
    4. Jae H. Kim, 1999. "Forecasting Monthly Tourist Departures from Australia," Tourism Economics, , vol. 5(3), pages 277-291, September.
    5. Nada Kulendran & Kenneth Wilson, 2000. "Modelling Business Travel," Tourism Economics, , vol. 6(1), pages 47-59, March.
    6. Petros Lathiras & Costas Siriopoulos, 1998. "The Demand for Tourism to Greece: A Cointegration Approach," Tourism Economics, , vol. 4(2), pages 171-185, June.
    7. Jae Min Kim, 2000. "Report: A Study of Tourist Demand and Accommodation in the Mt Paekdusan/Changbaishan Area," Tourism Economics, , vol. 6(1), pages 73-83, March.
    8. Raymond Y.C. Tse, 1998. "Do More Tourists Lead to Higher Levels of Consumption?," Tourism Economics, , vol. 4(3), pages 233-240, September.
    9. Youngtae Kim & Muzaffer Uysal, 1998. "Time-Dependent Analysis for International Hotel Demand in Seoul," Tourism Economics, , vol. 4(3), pages 253-263, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ms. Evridiki Tsounta, 2008. "What Attracts Tourists to Paradise?," IMF Working Papers 2008/277, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Serdar Ongan & Cem Işik & Dilek Özdemir, 2017. "The Effects of Real Exchange Rates and Income on International Tourism Demand for the USA from Some European Union Countries," Economies, MDPI, vol. 5(4), pages 1-11, December.
    3. Song, Haiyan & Qiu, Richard T.R. & Park, Jinah, 2019. "A review of research on tourism demand forecasting," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 338-362.
    4. Ketenci, Natalya, 2009. "The ARDL Approach to Cointegration Analysis of Tourism Demand in Turkey: with Greece as the substitution destination," MPRA Paper 86602, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Christopher J. Neely & Lucio Sarno, 2002. "How well do monetary fundamentals forecast exchange rates?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 84(Sep), pages 51-74.
    6. Kenichi Shimamoto, 2019. "Examining the Seasonality of Travel-Related Expenditure by Travel Purpose: The Case of Japan," Academica Turistica - Tourism and Innovation Journal, University of Primorska Press, vol. 12(1), pages 55-72.
    7. Allison Zhou & Carl Bonham & Byron Gangnes, 2007. "Modeling the supply and demand for tourism: a fully identified VECM approach," Working Papers 200717, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
    8. Wu, Jyh-Lin, 1999. "A re-examination of the exchange rate-interest differential relationship: evidence from Germany and Japan," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 319-336, February.
    9. Jean-Marie Dufour, 2003. "Identification, weak instruments, and statistical inference in econometrics," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 36(4), pages 767-808, November.
    10. Ioannis Chatziantoniou & Stavros Degiannakis & Bruno Eeckels & George Filis, 2016. "Forecasting tourist arrivals using origin country macroeconomics," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(27), pages 2571-2585, June.
    11. Jefferson, Philip N., 2000. "'Home' base and monetary base rules: elementary evidence from the 1980s and 1990s," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 161-180.
    12. Dollar Case, 1998. "Testing the long-run validity of the monetary approach to the exchange rate: the won-US," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(8), pages 507-511.
    13. Hernán Rincón, 1999. "Testing the Short-Long-Run Exchange Rate Effects on Trade Balance: The Case of Colombia," Borradores de Economia 120, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    14. Dan H. Andersen & Hans-Joachim Voth, 1997. "Neutrality and Mediterranean Shipping Under Danish Flag, 1750-1807," Oxford University Economic and Social History Series _018, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    15. David Tan & Kan Tsui, 2017. "Investigating causality in international air freight and business travel: The case of Australia," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 54(5), pages 1178-1193, April.
    16. Rui Menezes & Andreia Dioniso, 2011. "Globalization and long-run co-movements in the stock market for the G7: an application of VECM under structural breaks," Papers 1101.4093, arXiv.org.
    17. Engel, Charles, 2000. "Long-run PPP may not hold after all," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 243-273, August.
    18. Long Wen & Chang Liu & Haiyan Song, 2019. "Forecasting tourism demand using search query data: A hybrid modelling approach," Tourism Economics, , vol. 25(3), pages 309-329, May.
    19. Zhang, Yishuo & Li, Gang & Muskat, Birgit & Law, Rob & Yang, Yating, 2020. "Group pooling for deep tourism demand forecasting," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    20. Ghassan, Hassan B., 2007. "La condition de Marshall-Lerner-Robinson est-elle stable ? Approche par le test GLS cointégration à niveau et puissance améliorés [Does the Marshall-Lerner-Robinson condition verify the stability? ," MPRA Paper 56354, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Jan 2008.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    tourism demand; forecasting; Croatia;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hnb:wpaper:8. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Romana Sinković (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.hnb.hr .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.