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Time-Dependent Analysis for International Hotel Demand in Seoul

Author

Listed:
  • Youngtae Kim

    (Department of Hospitality Management, Pai-Chai University, 439-6, Doma-2 Dong, Seo-Gu, Taejun 302-735, Republic of Korea)

  • Muzaffer Uysal

    (Department of Hospitality and Tourism Management, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, 355 Wallace Hall, Blacksburg, VA 24060-0429, USA)

Abstract

The primary objective of this study is to develop an empirical model that accounts for factors affecting the demand for international tourist hotels, and that enables demand estimation and projection in the context of the Seoul metropolitan area. International hotel demand for a metropolitan area such as Seoul is hypothesized as a function of the price of hotel rooms, the number of events such as international conventions, seminars and exhibitions; and total trade volume of the destination country. The dependent variable is the number of bed nights occupied by foreign guests in a given period. The study discusses a procedure for correctly estimating a time-series regression model. Consideration is given to the possibility that errors in the model are generated by a time-dependent process more than by a first-order autoregressive process. The findings of the study revealed that own price, the number of events and the trade volume directly affected demand. Some factors were proven to affect the demand indirectly through adjustment of price in the short run. Further the study revealed that demand is a function of the entire market mechanism, which is the inter-relationship of demand and price among different market segments.

Suggested Citation

  • Youngtae Kim & Muzaffer Uysal, 1998. "Time-Dependent Analysis for International Hotel Demand in Seoul," Tourism Economics, , vol. 4(3), pages 253-263, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:toueco:v:4:y:1998:i:3:p:253-263
    DOI: 10.1177/135481669800400304
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    Cited by:

    1. Song, Haiyan & Qiu, Richard T.R. & Park, Jinah, 2019. "A review of research on tourism demand forecasting," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 338-362.
    2. Tihomir Stučka, 2002. "A Comparison of Two Econometric Models (OLS and SUR) for Forecasting Croatian Tourism Arrivals," Working Papers 8, The Croatian National Bank, Croatia.

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