IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/toueco/v5y1999i3p277-291.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Forecasting Monthly Tourist Departures from Australia

Author

Listed:
  • Jae H. Kim

    (Department of Economics, School of Business, James Cook University, Townsville, Queensland 4811, Australia)

Abstract

This paper builds time series forecasting models for monthly international tourist departures from Australia, categorized by the major destinations and by the main purposes of travel. Descriptive and statistical analyses reveal that strong trend and seasonality are the major features of all time series considered. The seasonal ARIMA model is used as a forecasting tool and its trend and seasonal components are specified based on inferential outcomes of the HEGY test for seasonal unit roots. Other alternative forecasting methods used include Holt-Winters' exponential smoothing method and the regression models that involve deterministic trend or seasonal dummy variables. It is found that forecasts generated from seasonal ARIMA models are more accurate than other alternative forecasts in most cases.

Suggested Citation

  • Jae H. Kim, 1999. "Forecasting Monthly Tourist Departures from Australia," Tourism Economics, , vol. 5(3), pages 277-291, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:toueco:v:5:y:1999:i:3:p:277-291
    DOI: 10.1177/135481669900500304
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/135481669900500304
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/135481669900500304?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Luis Alberiko Gil-Alaña, 2010. "Tourism in South Africa. Time series persistence and the nature of shocks. Are they transitory or permament?," NCID Working Papers 06/2011, Navarra Center for International Development, University of Navarra.
    2. Juncal Cuñado & Alberiko Gil-Alana, Luis & Perez De Gracia, Fernando, 2011. "Modelling International Monthly Tourist in Spain/Modelización de llegadas mensuales de turistas a España," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 29, pages 723-736, Diciembre.
    3. Duro Moreno, Juan Antonio & Turrión Prats, Judith, 2018. "Tourism seasonality worldwide," Working Papers 2072/351586, Universitat Rovira i Virgili, Department of Economics.
    4. Tihomir Stučka, 2002. "A Comparison of Two Econometric Models (OLS and SUR) for Forecasting Croatian Tourism Arrivals," Working Papers 8, The Croatian National Bank, Croatia.
    5. Saroja Selvanathan, 2007. "The effect of war and other factors on Sri Lankan tourism," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(1), pages 35-38.
    6. Christine Lim & Michael McAleer, 2001. "Time Series Forecasts of International Tourism Demand for Australia," ISER Discussion Paper 0533, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
    7. Anappattath Muhammed Salim & Thomas Shiby M., 2023. "Demand for Kerala’s International Tourism by the Top Three Source Markets: A Comparative Analysis," Acta Universitatis Sapientiae, Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 11(1), pages 208-226, October.
    8. Paz Rico & Bernardí Cabrer-Borrás & Francisco Morillas-Jurado, 2021. "Seasonality in Tourism: Do Senior Programs Mitigate It?," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(16), pages 1-27, August.
    9. Ms. Evridiki Tsounta, 2008. "What Attracts Tourists to Paradise?," IMF Working Papers 2008/277, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Nicholas Apergis & Andrea Mervar & James E. Payne, 2017. "Forecasting disaggregated tourist arrivals in Croatia," Tourism Economics, , vol. 23(1), pages 78-98, February.
    11. Song, Haiyan & Qiu, Richard T.R. & Park, Jinah, 2019. "A review of research on tourism demand forecasting," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 338-362.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:toueco:v:5:y:1999:i:3:p:277-291. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.