IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hit/hitcei/2018-3.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Dynamics of Informal Employment in Urban China

Author

Listed:
  • Deng, Quheng
  • Ma, Xinxin

Abstract

Utilizing the rotating panel data based on the Urban Household Surveys from 2002 to 2007 conducted by National Bureau of Statistics of China , this study investigates the dynamics of informal employment in urban China. It is found that the proportion of informal employment to the total employment increases continuously from 2002 to 2007. Transition rates between the informal and formal employment status indicate the probability of persistence in the informal employment is great. To consider that there may exists spurious state dependence which may overestimate the persistence in informal employment, this study utilizes the random-effects dynamic probit models to address the unobserved heterogeneity problem, and deals with the initial condition problem and the serial correlation of transitory shocks. Based on these regression results, this study disentangles the genuine from spurious state dependence. It is found that the genuine state dependence accounts for the majority of the persistence in informal employment. Genuine state dependence patterns for various subgroups are also examined.

Suggested Citation

  • Deng, Quheng & Ma, Xinxin, 2018. "The Dynamics of Informal Employment in Urban China," CEI Working Paper Series 2018-3, Center for Economic Institutions, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    • Handle: RePEc:hit:hitcei:2018-3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hermes-ir.lib.hit-u.ac.jp/hermes/ir/re/29246/wp2018-3.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gong, Xiaodong & Van Soest, Arthur & Villagomez, Elizabeth, 2004. "Mobility in the Urban Labor Market: A Panel Data Analysis for Mexico," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 53(1), pages 1-36, October.
    2. Mark B. Stewart & Joanna K. Swaffield, 1999. "Low Pay Dynamics and Transition Probabilities," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 66(261), pages 23-42, February.
    3. Cappellari, Lorenzo & Jenkins, Stephen P., 2008. "The Dynamics of Social Assistance Receipt: Measurement and Modelling Issues, with an Application to Britain," IZA Discussion Papers 3765, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Wiji Arulampalam, 1999. "A Note on Estimated Coefficients in Random Effects Probit Models," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(4), pages 597-602, November.
    5. Jeffrey M. Wooldridge, 2005. "Simple solutions to the initial conditions problem in dynamic, nonlinear panel data models with unobserved heterogeneity," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(1), pages 39-54, January.
    6. Feng, Shuaizhang & Hu, Yingyao & Moffitt, Robert, 2017. "Long run trends in unemployment and labor force participation in urban China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 304-324.
    7. Xin Meng, 2012. "Labor Market Outcomes and Reforms in China," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 26(4), pages 75-102, Fall.
    8. Mark B. Stewart, 2007. "The interrelated dynamics of unemployment and low-wage employment," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(3), pages 511-531.
    9. Dean R. Hyslop, 1999. "State Dependence, Serial Correlation and Heterogeneity in Intertemporal Labor Force Participation of Married Women," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(6), pages 1255-1294, November.
    10. Nguimkeu, Pierre, 2014. "A structural econometric analysis of the informal sector heterogeneity," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 175-191.
    11. Alpaslan Akay, 2012. "Finite‐sample comparison of alternative methods for estimating dynamic panel data models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(7), pages 1189-1204, November.
    12. Zhang, Junsen & Zhao, Yaohui & Park, Albert & Song, Xiaoqing, 2005. "Economic returns to schooling in urban China, 1988 to 2001," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 730-752, December.
    13. repec:bla:ecorec:v:78:y:2002:i:242:p:284-98 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Mundlak, Yair, 1978. "On the Pooling of Time Series and Cross Section Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 69-85, January.
    15. Fabián Slonimczyk & Vladimir Gimpelson, 2015. "Informality and mobility," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 23(2), pages 299-341, April.
    16. Chi, Wei & Li, Bo, 2008. "Glass ceiling or sticky floor? Examining the gender earnings differential across the earnings distribution in urban China, 1987-2004," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 243-263, June.
    17. Flaig, Gebhard & Licht, Georg & Steiner, Viktor, 1993. "Testing for state dependence effects in a dynamic model of male unemployment behaviour," ZEW Discussion Papers 93-07, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    18. Xue, Jinjun & Gao, Wenshu & Guo, Lin, 2014. "Informal employment and its effect on the income distribution in urban China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 84-93.
    19. Maloney, William F, 1999. "Does Informality Imply Segmentation in Urban Labor Markets? Evidence from Sectoral Transitions in Mexico," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 13(2), pages 275-302, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mark B. Stewart, 2007. "The interrelated dynamics of unemployment and low-wage employment," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(3), pages 511-531.
    2. Manudeep Bhuller & Christian N. Brinch & Sebastian Königs, 2017. "Time Aggregation and State Dependence in Welfare Receipt," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 127(604), pages 1833-1873, September.
    3. Wiji Arulampalam & Mark B. Stewart, 2009. "Simplified Implementation of the Heckman Estimator of the Dynamic Probit Model and a Comparison with Alternative Estimators," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(5), pages 659-681, October.
    4. Kostas Mavromaras & Darcy Fitzpatrick, 2017. "Self-employment Dynamics in Australia and the Importance of State Dependence," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 93, pages 144-170, June.
    5. Andreas Knabe & Alexander Plum, 2013. "Low-wage Jobs — Springboard to High-paid Ones?," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 27(3), pages 310-330, September.
    6. Sebastian Königs, 2013. "The Dynamics of Social Assistance Benefit Receipt in Germany: State Dependence Before and After the Hartz Reforms," OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers 136, OECD Publishing.
    7. Francesco Bartolucci & Claudia Pigini, 2017. "Granger causality in dynamic binary short panel data models," Working Papers 421, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    8. Arne Uhlendorff, 2006. "From No Pay to Low Pay and Back Again?: A Multi-State Model of Low Pay Dynamics," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 648, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    9. Lucchetti, Riccardo & Pigini, Claudia, 2017. "DPB: Dynamic Panel Binary Data Models in gretl," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 79(i08).
    10. Schnitzlein, Daniel D. & Stephani, Jens, 2016. "Locus of Control and low-wage mobility," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 164-177.
    11. Pere Arqué-Castells, 2013. "Persistence in R&D Performance and its Implications for the Granting of Subsidies," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 43(3), pages 193-220, November.
    12. Nisar Ahmad, 2014. "State Dependence in Unemployment," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 4(1), pages 93-106.
    13. Clark, Ken & Kanellopoulos, Nikolaos C., 2013. "Low pay persistence in Europe," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 122-134.
    14. Okamura, Kazuaki & Islam, Nizamul, 2021. "Multinomial employment dynamics with state dependence and heterogeneity: Evidence from Japan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    15. Alexander Mosthaf & Thorsten Schank & Claus Schnabel, 2014. "Low-wage employment versus unemployment: Which one provides better prospects for women?," IZA Journal of European Labor Studies, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 3(1), pages 1-17, December.
    16. Picchio, Matteo & van Ours, Jan C., 2013. "Retaining through training even for older workers," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 29-48.
    17. Ha Trong Nguyen & Luke B. Connelly, 2017. "The Dynamics of Informal Care Provision in an Australian Household Panel Survey: Previous Work Characteristics and Future Care Provision," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 93(302), pages 395-419, September.
    18. Herwig Immervoll & Stephen P. Jenkins & Sebastian Königs, 2015. "Are Recipients of Social Assistance 'Benefit Dependent'?: Concepts, Measurement and Results for Selected Countries," OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers 162, OECD Publishing.
    19. Syamsul Hidayat Pasaribu, 2016. "Persistence of Individual Unemployment in Indonesia: Dynamic Probit Analysis from Panel SUSENAS 2008-2010," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 6(3), pages 1239-1246.
    20. Joaquín Prieto, 2021. "Poverty traps and affluence shields: Modelling the persistence of income position in Chile," Working Papers 576, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    dynamics; informal employment; persistence; spurious state dependence; genuine state dependence;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hit:hitcei:2018-3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Reiko Suzuki (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cehitjp.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.