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Analysing Mechanisms for Meeting Global Emissions Target - A Dynamical Systems Approach

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  • Ranganathan, Shyam

    (Department of Mathematics)

  • Bali Swain, Ranjula

    (Department of Economics)

Abstract

Global emissions beyond 44 gigatonnes of carbondioxide equivalent (GtCO2e) in 2020 can potentially lead the world to an irreversible climate change. Employing a novel dynamical system modeling approach, we predict that in a business-asusual scenario, it will reach 61 GtCO2e by 2020. Testing estimated parameters, we nd that limiting the burden of emission reduction to the top 25 global emitters, does not increase their encumbrance. In absence of emission cuts, technology and preferences for environmental quality have to improve by at least 2.6 percent and 3.5 percent if the emission target has to be met by 2020.

Suggested Citation

  • Ranganathan, Shyam & Bali Swain, Ranjula, 2014. "Analysing Mechanisms for Meeting Global Emissions Target - A Dynamical Systems Approach," Working Paper Series 2014:10, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:uunewp:2014_010
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sustainable Development Goals; dynamical systems; Bayesian; greenhouse gases;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • Q01 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Sustainable Development
    • Q50 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - General

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