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Price discovery in government bond markets

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  • Valseth, Siri

    (University of Stavanger)

Abstract

Price discovery in government bond markets is explored using Norwegian data including trades from both tiers of the market and dealer identities. The results show that while aggregate interdealer order flow explains one-fourth of daily yield changes, aggregate customer order flow has little explanatory power. Dealers are heterogeneously informed and appear to have different sources of information. While some dealers mainly rely on their customer trades, others appear to rely on skill in acquiring and interpreting other relevant information, suggesting that dealers play an independent role in the price discovery process.
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Suggested Citation

  • Valseth, Siri, 2011. "Price discovery in government bond markets," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2011/3, University of Stavanger.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:stavef:2011_003
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    File URL: http://www1.uis.no/ansatt/odegaard/uis_wps_econ_fin/uis_wps_2011_3_valseth.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Martin D.D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2017. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Studies in Foreign Exchange Economics, chapter 6, pages 247-290, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
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    5. Osler, Carol L. & Mende, Alexander & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2011. "Price discovery in currency markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(8), pages 1696-1718.
    6. Sapp, Stephen G., 2002. "Price Leadership in the Spot Foreign Exchange Market," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 37(3), pages 425-448, September.
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    8. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:3:p:1201-1234 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Menkveld, Albert J. & Sarkar, Asani & Wel, Michel van der, 2012. "Customer Order Flow, Intermediaries, and Discovery of the Equilibrium Risk-Free Rate," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 47(4), pages 821-849, August.
    10. Lee, Charles M C & Ready, Mark J, 1991. "Inferring Trade Direction from Intraday Data," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 733-746, June.
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Czech, Robert & Huang, Shiyang & Lou, Dong & Wang, Tianyu, 2021. "Informed trading in government bond markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(3), pages 1253-1274.
    2. Valseth, Siri, 2020. "Informed trading in hybrid bond markets," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 44(C).
    3. Péter Kondor & Gábor Pintér, 2022. "Clients' Connections: Measuring the Role of Private Information in Decentralized Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(1), pages 505-544, February.
    4. Valseth, Siri, 2016. "Informed trading in Hybrid Bond Markets," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2016/13, University of Stavanger.
    5. Valseth, Siri, 2023. "Repo market frictions and intermediation in electronic bond markets," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2023/1, University of Stavanger.
    6. Banerjee, Ameet Kumar & Pradhan, H.K. & Akhtaruzzaman, Md & Sensoy, Ahmet & Dann, Susan, 2024. "Anatomy of sovereign yield behaviour using textual news," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    7. Papavassiliou, Vassilios G. & Kinateder, Harald, 2021. "Information shares and market quality before and during the European sovereign debt crisis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    8. Piccotti, Louis R. & Schreiber, Ben Z., 2020. "Information shares in a two-tier FX market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 19-35.
    9. Carol Osler & Geir Bjonnes & Neophytos Kathitziotis, 2016. "Bid-Ask Spreads in OTC Markets," Working Papers 102, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Business School.
    10. Wu, Lei & Liu, Chunlin & Meng, Qingbin & Zeng, Hongchao, 2018. "Price discovery in China's inter-bank bond market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 84-98.
    11. Alessandro Girardi & Claudio Impenna, 2013. "Price Discovery In The Italian Sovereign Bonds Market: The Role Of Order Flow," Working Papers LuissLab 13108, Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, LUISS Guido Carli.
    12. Geir H. Bjønnes & Carol L. Osler & Dagfinn Rime, 2021. "Price discovery in two‐tier markets," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(2), pages 3109-3133, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Price Discovery; Microstructure; Government Bonds; Norway;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G30 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - General

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