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Customer Order Flow, Intermediaries, and Discovery of the Equilibrium Risk-Free Rate

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  • Menkveld, Albert J.
  • Sarkar, Asani
  • Wel, Michel van der

Abstract

Macro announcements change the equilibrium risk-free rate. We find that Treasury prices reflect part of the impact instantaneously, but intermediaries rely on their customer order flow after the announcement to discover the full impact. This customer flow informativeness is strongest when analyst macro forecasts are most dispersed. The result holds for 30-year Treasury futures trading in both electronic and open-outcry markets. We further show that intermediaries benefit from privately recognizing informed customer flow, as their own-account trading profitability correlates with customer order access.

Suggested Citation

  • Menkveld, Albert J. & Sarkar, Asani & Wel, Michel van der, 2012. "Customer Order Flow, Intermediaries, and Discovery of the Equilibrium Risk-Free Rate," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 47(4), pages 821-849, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:47:y:2012:i:04:p:821-849_00
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    1. repec:uts:finphd:39 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Guillermo Llorente & Jiang Wang, 2020. "Trading and information in futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(8), pages 1231-1263, August.
    3. Piccotti, Louis R., 2018. "Jumps, cojumps, and efficiency in the spot foreign exchange market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 49-67.
    4. Kurov, Alexander & Olson, Eric & Zaynutdinova, Gulnara R., 2022. "When does the fed care about stock prices?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    5. van der Wel, M., 2020. "Connecting Silos : On linking macroeconomics and finance, and the role of econometrics therein," ERIM Inaugural Address Series Research in Management 124748, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam..
    6. Piccotti, Louis R. & Schreiber, Ben Z., 2020. "Information shares in a two-tier FX market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 19-35.
    7. Wu, Lei & Liu, Chunlin & Meng, Qingbin & Zeng, Hongchao, 2018. "Price discovery in China's inter-bank bond market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 84-98.
    8. George Jiang & Ingrid Lo & Giorgio Valente, 2014. "High-Frequency Trading around Macroeconomic News Announcements: Evidence from the U.S. Treasury Market," Staff Working Papers 14-56, Bank of Canada.
    9. Deuskar, Prachi & Johnson, Timothy C., 2021. "Funding liquidity and market liquidity in government bonds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    10. Opschoor, Anne & Taylor, Nick & van der Wel, Michel & van Dijk, Dick, 2014. "Order flow and volatility: An empirical investigation," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 185-201.
    11. Valseth, Siri, 2013. "Price discovery in government bond markets," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 127-151.
    12. Fei Su, 2018. "Essays on Price Discovery and Volatility Dynamics in the Foreign Exchange Market," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 2-2018, January-A.
    13. Brunetti, Celso & Harris, Jeffrey H. & Mankad, Shawn, 2022. "Sidedness in the interbank market," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 59(PA).
    14. Tarun Chordia & Alexander Kurov & Dmitriy Muravyev & Avanidhar Subrahmanyam, 2021. "The joint cross section of stocks and options," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(3), pages 1758-1778, March.
    15. Su, Fei & Zhang, Jingjing, 2018. "Global price discovery in the Australian dollar market and its determinants," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 35-55.
    16. repec:uts:finphd:38 is not listed on IDEAS

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