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Informed trading in government bond markets

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  • Czech, Robert
  • Huang, Shiyang
  • Lou, Dong
  • Wang, Tianyu

Abstract

Using comprehensive administrative data from the UK, we examine trading by different investor types in government bond markets. Our sample covers virtually all secondary market trading in gilts and contains detailed information on each transaction, including the identities of both counterparties. We find that hedge funds' daily trading positively forecasts gilt returns in the following one to five days, which is then fully reversed in the following month. A part of this short-term return predictability is due to hedge funds' ability to predict other investors' future demand. Mutual fund trading also positively predicts gilt returns, but over a longer horizon of one to two months. This return pattern does not revert in the following year and is partly due to mutual funds' ability to forecast changes in short-term interest rates.

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  • Czech, Robert & Huang, Shiyang & Lou, Dong & Wang, Tianyu, 2021. "Informed trading in government bond markets," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 118857, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:118857
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    Cited by:

    1. Czech, Robert & Huang, Shiyang & Lou, Dong & Wang, Tianyu, 2021. "An unintended consequence of holding dollar assets," Bank of England working papers 953, Bank of England.
    2. Gabor Pinter & Chaojun Wang & Junyuan Zou, 2024. "Size Discount and Size Penalty: Trading Costs in Bond Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 37(7), pages 2156-2190.
    3. Kerssenfischer, Mark & Helmus, Caspar, 2024. "Outages in sovereign bond markets," Working Paper Series 2944, European Central Bank.
    4. Péter Kondor & Gábor Pintér, 2022. "Clients' Connections: Measuring the Role of Private Information in Decentralized Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(1), pages 505-544, February.
    5. Fung, Scott & Obaid, Khaled & Tsai, Shih-Chuan, 2024. "Information acquisition and processing skills of institutions and retail investors around information shocks," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    6. Pinter, Gabor & Uslu, Semih, 2023. "Price formation in markets with trading delays," Bank of England working papers 1023, Bank of England.
    7. de Roure, Calebe & Mönch, Emanuel & Pelizzon, Loriana & Schneider, Michael, 2019. "OTC discount," Discussion Papers 42/2019, Deutsche Bundesbank.
      • de Roure, Calebe & Mönch, Emanuel & Pelizzon, Loriana & Schneider, Michael, 2021. "OTC discount," SAFE Working Paper Series 298, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE, revised 2021.
    8. Pinter, Gabor & Uslu, Semih, 2022. "Comparing search and intermediation frictions across markets," Bank of England working papers 974, Bank of England.
    9. Abudy, Menachem Meni & Nathan, Daniel & Wohl, Avi, 2024. "Mutual fund flows and government bond returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    10. Pintér, Gábor & Wang, Chaojun & Zou, Junyuan, 2022. "Information chasing versus adverse selection," Bank of England working papers 971, Bank of England.
    11. Coen, Jamie & Coen, Patrick & Hüser, Anne-Caroline, 2024. "Collateral demand in wholesale funding markets," Bank of England working papers 1082, Bank of England.
    12. Di Gangi, Domenico & Lazarov, Vladimir & Mankodi, Aakash & Silvestri, Laura, 2022. "Links between government bond and futures markets: dealer-client relationships and price discovery in the UK," Bank of England working papers 991, Bank of England.
    13. Czech, Robert & Pintér, Gábor, 2020. "Informed trading and the dynamics of client-dealer connections in corporate bond markets," Bank of England working papers 895, Bank of England, revised 20 Jan 2022.
    14. Bidder, Rhys & Coen, Jamie & Lepore, Caterina & Silvestri, Laura, 2024. "Whose asset sales matter?," Bank of England working papers 1088, Bank of England.
    15. Cunfei Liao & Guohao Tang & Xiaoying Xu, 2024. "Smart money or chasing stars: Evidence from northbound trading in China," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(2), pages 1781-1803, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    government bonds; informed trading; return predictability; asset managers;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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