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Macroeconomic Stability or Cycles? The Role of the Wage-price Spiral

Author

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  • Kolsrud, Dag

    (Statistics Norway)

  • Nymoen, Ragnar

    (Dept. of Economics, University of Oslo)

Abstract

We derive aggregate supply (AS) relationships for an intermediate-run macro model. The wage-price spiral provides the conceptual framework for a synthesis of different contesting theoretical and empirical perspectives on the AS curve: the Phillips curve model (PCM) and the wage-price equilibrium correction model (WPECM). The generalized AS curve is grafted into a small macro model. We analyze stability conditions, steady states, and dynamic solutions, using a combination of algebra and simulations. The specification of the AS curve, as a PCM or a WPECM, is shown to be important for all aspects of the model’s solution, but within each model also the detailed parameterization is of qualitative importance. For example, endogenous cyclical fluctuations are typical for both nominal and real variables, e.g. inflation and unemployment.

Suggested Citation

  • Kolsrud, Dag & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2010. "Macroeconomic Stability or Cycles? The Role of the Wage-price Spiral," Memorandum 06/2010, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:osloec:2010_006
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Gunnar Bårdsen & Dag Kolsrud & Ragnar Nymoen, 2017. "Forecast robustness in macroeconometric models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(6), pages 629-639, September.
    2. Binh Thai Pham & Hector Sala, 2023. "Fiscal deficits and the socioeconomic consequences of rebalancing: Insights from a TVP‐VAR with stochastic volatility," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 62(2), pages 214-235, June.
    3. Marit Gjelsvik & Ragnar Nymoen & Victoria Sparrman, 2020. "Cointegration and Structure in Norwegian Wage–Price Dynamics," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 8(3), pages 1-15, July.
    4. KARGI, Bilal, 2013. "Ücret Yapışkanlığı Hipotezi'nin Test Edilmesi: Türkiye'de Asgari Ücret ve Büyüme Üzerine Zaman Serileri Analizi (2005-2012) [Testing Wage Rigidity Stickiness Hypothesis: Time Series Analysis on the," MPRA Paper 55695, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Nymoen, Ragnar & Sparrman, Victoria, 2012. "Panel Data Evidence on the Role of Institutions and Shocks for Unemployment Dynamics and Equilibrium," Memorandum 20/2012, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    6. Ragnar Nymoen, 2017. "Between Institutions and Global Forces: Norwegian Wage Formation Since Industrialisation," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 5(1), pages 1-54, January.
    7. Jean-Marc Ginoux & Franck Jovanovic, 2022. "Solving Vincent Carret's Puzzle: A Rebuttal of Carret's Fallacies and Errors," Working Papers hal-03849582, HAL.
    8. Dag Kolsrud & Ragnar Nymoen, 2012. "Modelling the heuristic dynamics of the wage and price curve model of equilibrium unemployment," Discussion Papers 671, Statistics Norway, Research Department.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    AS-AD; cycles; dynamics; equilibrium correction; macroeconomics; nominal rigidity; Phillips curve; unemployment; wage-price spiral;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • J50 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Labor-Management Relations, Trade Unions, and Collective Bargaining - - - General

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