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Forecast robustness in macroeconometric models

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  • Gunnar Bårdsen
  • Dag Kolsrud
  • Ragnar Nymoen

Abstract

The paper investigates explanations for forecasting invariance to structural breaks. After highlighting the role of policy, we isolate possible structural invariance in a simplified dynamic macro model that nevertheless has features in common with the standard model of aggregate demand and aggregate supply. We find, as expected, that structural breaks in growth rates and in the means of cointegrating relationships will always damage some of the variables. But we also find examples of "insulation" from shocks. The results about partial robustness is a property of the economy itself (here represented by the DGP) and not of the forecasts.
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Suggested Citation

  • Gunnar Bårdsen & Dag Kolsrud & Ragnar Nymoen, 2017. "Forecast robustness in macroeconometric models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(6), pages 629-639, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jforec:v:36:y:2017:i:6:p:629-639
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    1. Bardsen, Gunnar & Eitrheim, Oyvind & Jansen, Eilev S. & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2005. "The Econometrics of Macroeconomic Modelling," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199246502.
    2. Bårdsen, Gunnar & den Reijer, Ard & Jonasson, Patrik & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2012. "MOSES: Model for studying the economy of Sweden," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2566-2582.
    3. Dag Kolsrud & Ragnar Nymoen, 2014. "Macroeconomic Stability or Cycles? The Role of the Wage-Price Spiral," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(1-2), pages 41-68, June.
    4. Q. Farooq Akram & Ragnar Nymoen, 2009. "Model Selection for Monetary Policy Analysis: How Important is Empirical Validity?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(1), pages 35-68, February.
    5. Barkbu, Bergljot Bjornson & Nymoen, Ragnar & Roed, Knut, 2003. "Wage coordination and unemployment dynamics in Norway and Sweden," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 37-58, March.
    6. Clements Michael P. & Hendry David F., 2008. "Economic Forecasting in a Changing World," Capitalism and Society, De Gruyter, vol. 3(2), pages 1-20, October.
    7. Skrove Falch, Nina & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2011. "The accuracy of a forecast targeting central bank," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 5, pages 1-36.
    8. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Pick, Andreas & Pranovich, Mikhail, 2013. "Optimal forecasts in the presence of structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(2), pages 134-152.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jennifer L. Castle & Michael P. Clements & David F. Hendry, 2016. "An Overview of Forecasting Facing Breaks," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 12(1), pages 3-23, September.
    2. Vassilios Bazinas & Bent Nielsen, 2022. "Causal Transmission in Reduced-Form Models," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-25, March.
    3. Bårdsen, Gunnar & den Reijer, Ard & Jonasson, Patrik & Nymoen, Ragnar, 2012. "MOSES: Model for studying the economy of Sweden," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2566-2582.

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