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How Tight is the Labour Market? A Micro-Based Macro Indicator

Author

Listed:
  • Gaure, Simen

    (Ragnar Frisch Centre for Economic Research)

  • Røed, Knut

    (Ragnar Frisch Centre for Economic Research)

Abstract

We develop a new indicator of labour market tightness, based on the pure calendar time changes in individuals’ transition rates from unemployment to employment.Based on Norwegian register data from the 1989-2002 period, we show that this indicator,in contrast to the aggregate rate of unemployment, correlates well with an expost-calculated GDP-based business cycle indicator, even around the time of business cycle turning points. The indicator can be calculated just as quickly as the unemployment rate, both at an aggregate and a disaggregate level, and hence improve policy makers ability to assess current labour market developments.

Suggested Citation

  • Gaure, Simen & Røed, Knut, 2003. "How Tight is the Labour Market? A Micro-Based Macro Indicator," Memorandum 09/2003, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:osloec:2003_009
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    File URL: http://www.sv.uio.no/econ/english/research/unpublished-works/working-papers/pdf-files/2003/Memo-09-2003.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Abbring, Jaap H. & van den Berg, Gerard J. & van Ours, Jan C., 2002. "The anatomy of unemployment dynamics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(10), pages 1785-1824, December.
    2. Olympia Bover & Manuel Arellano & Samuel Bentolila, 2002. "Unemployment Duration, Benefit Duration and the Business Cycle," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(479), pages 223-265, April.
    3. An, Mark Yuying, 1998. "Logconcavity versus Logconvexity: A Complete Characterization," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 350-369, June.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Røed, Knut & Westlie, Lars, 2007. "Unemployment Insurance in Welfare States: Soft Constraints and Mild Sanctions," IZA Discussion Papers 2877, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Fredrik Carlsen & Kåre Johansen & Knut RØed, 2006. "Wage Formation, Regional Migration and Local Labour Market Tightness," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 68(4), pages 423-444, August.
    3. Gaure, Simen & Roed, Knut & Zhang, Tao, 2007. "Time and causality: A Monte Carlo assessment of the timing-of-events approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 1159-1195, December.
    4. Ekhaugen, Tyra, 2007. "Long-term Outcomes of Vocational Rehabilitation Programs: Labor Market Transitions and Job Durations for Immigrants," Memorandum 10/2007, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    5. Zhang, Tao, 2003. "A Monte Carlo study on non-parametric estimation of duration models with unobserved heterogeneity," Memorandum 25/2003, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    6. Nordberg, Morten & Kverndokk, Snorre, 2009. "Absenteeism, Health Insurance, and Business Cycles," HERO Online Working Paper Series 2003:17, University of Oslo, Health Economics Research Programme.
    7. Knut Røed & Oddbjørn Raaum, 2006. "Do Labour Market Programmes Speed up the Return to Work?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 68(5), pages 541-568, October.
    8. Carlsen, Fredrik & Johansen, Kare, 2005. "Regional wages and subjective measures of employment opportunities," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 377-400, May.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Labour market tightness; Business cycles; Unemployment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

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