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A micro-data analysis of households’ expectations of mortgage rates

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  • Hjalmarsson, Erik
  • Österholm, Pär

Abstract

We analyse micro-level survey data, ranging from 2010 to 2017, on Swedish households’ mortgage-rate expectations. Our key finding is that expectations at the longest horizon are significantly related to age, where the youngest age group has the lowest expectations.

Suggested Citation

  • Hjalmarsson, Erik & Österholm, Pär, 2019. "A micro-data analysis of households’ expectations of mortgage rates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:185:y:2019:i:c:s0165176519303453
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2019.108693
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lena Dräger, 2015. "Inflation perceptions and expectations in Sweden – Are media reports the missing link?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 77(5), pages 681-700, October.
    2. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller & Anne K. Thompson, 2012. "What Have They Been Thinking? Homebuyer Behavior in Hot and Cold Markets," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 43(2 (Fall)), pages 265-315.
    3. Lambertini, Luisa & Mendicino, Caterina & Punzi, Maria Teresa, 2013. "Expectation-driven cycles in the housing market: Evidence from survey data," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 518-529.
    4. Gelain, Paolo & Lansing, Kevin J., 2014. "House prices, expectations, and time-varying fundamentals," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 3-25.
    5. Hjalmarsson, Erik & Österholm, Pär, 2017. "Households’ Mortgage-Rate Expectations: More Realistic than at First Glance?," Working Papers 2017:9, Örebro University, School of Business.
    6. Jonung, Lars, 1981. "Perceived and Expected Rates of Inflation in Sweden," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(5), pages 961-968, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hjalmarsson, Erik & Österholm, Pär, 2020. "Heterogeneity in households’ expectations of housing prices – evidence from micro data," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    2. Kladivko, Kamil & Österholm, Pär, 2020. "Can Households Predict where the Macroeconomy is Headed?," Working Papers 2020:11, Örebro University, School of Business.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Survey data;

    JEL classification:

    • G41 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making in Financial Markets
    • R20 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - General

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