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Modeling Passenger Train Delay Distributions - Evidence and Implications

Author

Listed:
  • Bergström, Anna

    (Dept. of Economics)

  • Krüger, Niclas

    (Swedish National Road and Transport Research Institute)

Abstract

This paper addresses the lack of reliability within the Swedish rail network by identifying passenger train delay distributions. Arrival delays are analyzed in detail using data provided by the Swedish Transport Administration, covering all train departures and arrivals during 2008 and 2009. The paper identifies vulnerabilities by size, space and time in the network. Our results show that the delay distribution seems to be plagued by low probability high impact events. A major share of all delay time is associated with the tail of the delay distribution, indicating that extreme delays cannot be neglected when prioritizing between measures improving rail infrastructure. Delays are not only concentrated in size, but also concentrated in space and time and seem to follow a precise power law with respect to days and an exponential distribution with regard to stations. Moreover, we also examine the link between capacity usage and expected delay over different time scales.

Suggested Citation

  • Bergström, Anna & Krüger, Niclas, 2013. "Modeling Passenger Train Delay Distributions - Evidence and Implications," Karlstad University Working Papers in Economics 10, Karlstad University, Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:kaunek:0010
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Delay; Reliability; Passenger trains; Delay distribution; Value of time; Cost-benefit analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H54 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Infrastructures
    • R42 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Government and Private Investment Analysis; Road Maintenance; Transportation Planning

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