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Modeling travel time reliability of freeways using risk assessment techniques

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  • Tu, Huizhao
  • Li, Hao
  • van Lint, Hans
  • van Zuylen, Henk

Abstract

Travel time reliability is considered to be one of the key indicators for the performance of transport systems and is measured in various ways. This paper synthesizes both reliability concepts: traffic breakdown, the indicator of the instability of travel times, is treated as the risk, whereas travel time variability, the indicator of the uncertainty of travel times, is considered as the consequence of this risk. An analytical formula, using risk assessment technique, explicitly expresses the cost of travel time unreliability as the sum of the products of the consequences (i.e. variability) and the corresponding probabilities of breakdown. It provides a novel measure of travel time reliability and is applicable in network performance evaluations. An empirical example based on a large dataset of freeway traffic flow data from loop detectors shows that the developed travel time reliability measure is both intuitively logical and consistent.

Suggested Citation

  • Tu, Huizhao & Li, Hao & van Lint, Hans & van Zuylen, Henk, 2012. "Modeling travel time reliability of freeways using risk assessment techniques," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 46(10), pages 1528-1540.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:46:y:2012:i:10:p:1528-1540
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2012.07.009
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    2. Zhaoqi Zang & Xiangdong Xu & Kai Qu & Ruiya Chen & Anthony Chen, 2022. "Travel time reliability in transportation networks: A review of methodological developments," Papers 2206.12696, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2022.
    3. Li, Hao & Yu, Lu & Chen, Yu & Tu, Huizhao & Zhang, Jun, 2023. "Uncertainty of available range in explaining the charging choice behavior of BEV users," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    4. Muriel-Villegas, Juan E. & Alvarez-Uribe, Karla C. & Patiño-Rodríguez, Carmen E. & Villegas, Juan G., 2016. "Analysis of transportation networks subject to natural hazards – Insights from a Colombian case," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 151-165.
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    6. Krier, Betty & Liu, Chia-Mei & McNamara, Brian & Sharpe, Jerrod, 2014. "Individual freight effects, capacity utilization, and Amtrak service quality," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 163-175.
    7. Changyin Dong & Hao Wang & Quan Chen & Daiheng Ni & Ye Li, 2019. "Simulation-Based Assessment of Multilane Separate Freeways at Toll Station Area: A Case Study from Huludao Toll Station on Shenshan Freeway," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-22, May.
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    9. Li, Hao & Tu, Huizhao & Hensher, David A., 2016. "Integrating the mean–variance and scheduling approaches to allow for schedule delay and trip time variability under uncertainty," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 151-163.
    10. Sjoerd van der Spoel & Chintan Amrit & Jos van Hillegersberg, 2017. "Predictive analytics for truck arrival time estimation: a field study at a European distribution centre," International Journal of Production Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(17), pages 5062-5078, September.
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