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Assessing Alternative Indicators for Covid-19 Policy Evaluation, with a Counterfactual for Sweden

Author

Listed:
  • Spagnolo, Giancarlo

    (Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics)

  • Latour, Chiara

    (Stockholm University)

  • Peracchi, Franco

    (University of Rome Tor Vergata and EIEF)

Abstract

We compare different indicators of the spread and consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic, developing a novel method to adjust daily COVID-19 deaths to match weekly excess mortality. Focusing on Sweden, the only country that has good data and did not impose a lockdown, we construct counterfactuals for what would have happened if it had imposed a lockdown, using a synthetic control method. Correcting for data problems and optimizing the synthetic control for each indicator considered, we find stronger effects than previously estimated. Most importantly, studying the ratio of positives to the number of tests, we find that a lockdown would have had sizable effects already after a week. The 3–4 weeks delay highlighted in previous studies appears mainly driven by the large changes in testing frequency that occurred in Sweden during the period considered.

Suggested Citation

  • Spagnolo, Giancarlo & Latour, Chiara & Peracchi, Franco, 2021. "Assessing Alternative Indicators for Covid-19 Policy Evaluation, with a Counterfactual for Sweden," SITE Working Paper Series 55, Stockholm School of Economics, Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:hasite:0055
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    3. James H Fowler & Seth J Hill & Remy Levin & Nick Obradovich, 2021. "Stay-at-home orders associate with subsequent decreases in COVID-19 cases and fatalities in the United States," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(6), pages 1-15, June.
    4. Benjamin Born & Alexander M Dietrich & Gernot J Müller, 2021. "The lockdown effect: A counterfactual for Sweden," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(4), pages 1-13, April.
    5. Sang-Wook (Stanley) Cho, 0. "Quantifying the impact of nonpharmaceutical interventions during the COVID-19 outbreak: The case of Sweden," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 23(3), pages 323-344.
    6. Sang-Wook (Stanley) Cho, 2020. "Quantifying the impact of nonpharmaceutical interventions during the COVID-19 outbreak: The case of Sweden," The Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 23(3), pages 323-344.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19 indicators; excess deaths; COVID-19 deaths; containment policies; lockdown; synthetic control method; Sweden;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

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