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Coronavirus and Social Distancing: Do Non-Pharmaceutical-Interventions Work (at least) in the Short Run?

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Listed:
  • David Bardey
  • Manuel Fernández
  • Alexis Gravel

Abstract

Using detailed daily information covering 100 countries and an event-study approach, we estimate the short run effects of implementing Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) on the spread of the COVID-19 virus at the early stages of the pandemic. We study the impact of two NPIs -stay-at-home requirements and workplace closures - on three outcomes: daily residential and workplace mobility; the daily growth rate of cases; and the daily growth rate of fatalities. Acknowledging that we observe a mobility reduction in countries before they implemented NPIs, we find that immediately after NPIs were implemented, mobility declined by 0.2 standard deviation (SD), and two weeks afterwards it was down by 0.7 SDs. 25 days after the NPIs were implemented, the daily growth rate of cases and deaths was lower by 10% and 8.4% respectively. Our results reveal that between 53 and 72 percent of the reduction of the daily growth rate of cases and deaths associated with a reduction of mobility is caused by NPIs.

Suggested Citation

  • David Bardey & Manuel Fernández & Alexis Gravel, 2021. "Coronavirus and Social Distancing: Do Non-Pharmaceutical-Interventions Work (at least) in the Short Run?," Documentos CEDE 18729, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000089:018729
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Andrés Rodríguez-Pose & Miquel Vidal-Bover, 2022. "Decentralisation, unfunded mandates, and the regional response to the covid-19 pandemic," Working Papers. Collection A: Public economics, governance and decentralization 2214, Universidade de Vigo, GEN - Governance and Economics research Network.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions; Pandemic.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs

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