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Fertility and early-life mortality: Evidence from smallpox vaccination in Sweden

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  • Philipp Ager

    (University of Southern Denmark)

  • Casper Worm Hansen

    (Aarhus University)

  • Peter Sandholt Jensen

    (University of Southern Denmark)

Abstract

We examine how the introduction of smallpox vaccination affected early-life mortality and fertility in Sweden during the first half of the 19th century. We demonstrate that parishes in counties with higher levels of smallpox mortality prior to the introduction of vaccination experienced a greater decline in infant mortality afterwards. Exploiting this finding in an instrumental-variable approach reveals that this decline had a negative effect on the birth rate, while the number of surviving children and population growth remained unaffected. These results suggest that the decline in early-life mortality cannot account for the onset of the fertility decline in Sweden.

Suggested Citation

  • Philipp Ager & Casper Worm Hansen & Peter Sandholt Jensen, 2014. "Fertility and early-life mortality: Evidence from smallpox vaccination in Sweden," Working Papers 0058, European Historical Economics Society (EHES).
    • Handle: RePEc:hes:wpaper:0058
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    2. Marcos A. Rangel & Jenna Nobles & Amar Hamoudi, 2020. "Brazil’s Missing Infants: Zika Risk Changes Reproductive Behavior," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 57(5), pages 1647-1680, October.
    3. Schneider, Eric & Edvinsson, Sören & Ogasawara, Kota, 2022. "Did Smallpox Cause Stillbirths? Maternal Smallpox Infection, Vaccination and Stillbirths in Sweden, 1780-1839," CEPR Discussion Papers 17274, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Santos Silva, Manuel & Alexander, Amy C. & Klasen, Stephan & Welzel, Christian, 2023. "The roots of female emancipation: Initializing role of Cool Water," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 133-159.
    5. Stefan Bauernschuster & Anastasia Driva & Erik Hornung, 2020. "Bismarck’s Health Insurance and the Mortality Decline [Disease and Development: The Effect of Life Expectancy on Economic Growth]," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 18(5), pages 2561-2607.
    6. Rangel, Marcos & Nobles, Jenna & Hamoudi, Amar, 2019. "Brazil's Missing Infants: Zika Risk Changes Reproductive Behavior," SocArXiv fu8bp, Center for Open Science.
    7. Manuel Hoffmann & Roberto Mosquera & Adrian Chadi, 2019. "Vaccines at Work," TWI Research Paper Series 116, Thurgauer Wirtschaftsinstitut, Universität Konstanz.
    8. Mounir Karadja & Erik Prawitz, 2019. "Exit, Voice, and Political Change: Evidence from Swedish Mass Migration to the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 127(4), pages 1864-1925.
    9. Brian Beach & W. Walker Hanlon, 2019. "Censorship, Family Planning, and the Historical Fertility Transition," NBER Working Papers 25752, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Peter Juul Egedesø & Casper Worm Hansen & Peter Sandholt Jensen, 2020. "Preventing the White Death: Tuberculosis Dispensaries," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 130(629), pages 1288-1316.
    11. Katharina Mühlhoff, 2022. "Darwin beats malthus: evolutionary anthropology, human capital and the demographic transition," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 16(3), pages 575-614, September.
    12. Mühlhoff, Katharina, 2022. "Convincing the “Herd” of immunity: Lessons from smallpox vaccination in 19th century Germany," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 47(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fertility transition; infant mortality; smallpox vaccine;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • I15 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health and Economic Development

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