IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hbs/wpaper/17-088.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Survival of the Fittest: The Impact of the Minimum Wage on Firm Exit

Author

Listed:
  • Dara Lee Luca

    (Mathematica Policy Research)

  • Michael Luca

    (Harvard Business School, Negotiation, Organizations & Markets Unit)

Abstract

We study the impact of the minimum wage on firm exit in the restaurant industry, exploiting recent changes in the minimum wage at the city level. We find that the impact of the minimum wage depends on whether a restaurant was already close to the margin of exit. Restaurants with lower ratings are closer to the margin of exit at all observed minimum wage levels, and are disproportionately driven out of business by increases to the minimum wage. Our point estimates suggest that a one dollar increase in the minimum wage leads to a 14 percent increase in the likelihood of exit for a 3.5-star restaurant (which is the median rating on Yelp), but has no discernible impact for a 5-star restaurant (on a 1 to 5 star scale). Looking at data from delivery orders, we find that lower rated restaurants also increase prices in response to minimum minimum wage increases. Overall, our analysis also highlights how digital data can be used to shed new light on labor policy and the economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Dara Lee Luca & Michael Luca, 2017. "Survival of the Fittest: The Impact of the Minimum Wage on Firm Exit," Harvard Business School Working Papers 17-088, Harvard Business School, revised Aug 2018.
    • Handle: RePEc:hbs:wpaper:17-088
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.hbs.edu/faculty/pages/download.aspx?name=17-088.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lawrence Katz & Alan Krueger, 1992. "The Effect of the Minimum Wage on the Fast Food Industry," Working Papers 678, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Industrial Relations Section..
    2. Card, David & Krueger, Alan B, 1994. "Minimum Wages and Employment: A Case Study of the Fast-Food Industry in New Jersey and Pennsylvania," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(4), pages 772-793, September.
    3. Edward L. Glaeser & Scott Duke Kominers & Michael Luca & Nikhil Naik, 2018. "Big Data And Big Cities: The Promises And Limitations Of Improved Measures Of Urban Life," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(1), pages 114-137, January.
    4. Lawrence F. Katz & Alan B. Krueger, 1992. "The Effect of the Minimum Wage on the Fast-Food Industry," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 46(1), pages 6-21, October.
    5. Christopher J. Flinn, 2006. "Minimum Wage Effects on Labor Market Outcomes under Search, Matching, and Endogenous Contact Rates," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(4), pages 1013-1062, July.
    6. Alan B. Krueger & David Card, 2000. "Minimum Wages and Employment: A Case Study of the Fast-Food Industry in New Jersey and Pennsylvania: Reply," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1397-1420, December.
    7. Jan Eeckhout & Philipp Kircher, 2011. "Identifying Sorting--In Theory," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 78(3), pages 872-906.
    8. John Horton, 2017. "Price Floors and Employer Preferences: Evidence from a Minimum Wage Experiment," CESifo Working Paper Series 6548, CESifo.
    9. Mendes, Rute & van den Berg, Gerard J. & Lindeboom, Maarten, 2010. "An empirical assessment of assortative matching in the labor market," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(6), pages 919-929, December.
    10. Daniel Aaronson & Sumit Agarwal & Eric French, 2008. "The consumption response to minimum wage increases," Working Paper Series WP-07-23, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    11. Dale Belman & Paul J. Wolfson, 2014. "What Does the Minimum Wage Do?," Books from Upjohn Press, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, number wdmwd.
    12. Daniel Aaronson, 2001. "Price Pass-Through And The Minimum Wage," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(1), pages 158-169, February.
    13. Allegretto, Sylvia & Reich, Michael, 2016. "Are Local Minimum Wages Absorbed by Price Increases? Estimates from Internet-based Restaurant Menus," Institute for Research on Labor and Employment, Working Paper Series qt1b8985k3, Institute of Industrial Relations, UC Berkeley.
    14. Daniel Aaronson & Eric French & James MacDonald, 2008. "The Minimum Wage, Restaurant Prices, and Labor Market Structure," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 43(3), pages 688-720.
    15. repec:fth:prinin:298 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Sumit Agarwal & Dan Aaronson & Eric French, 2008. "The Consumption Response to Minimum Wage Hikes," 2008 Meeting Papers 379, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    17. Arindrajit Dube & T. William Lester & Michael Reich, 2010. "Minimum Wage Effects Across State Borders: Estimates Using Contiguous Counties," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(4), pages 945-964, November.
    18. French, Eric Baird & Aaronson, Daniel & Sorkin, Isaac, 2016. "Industry Dynamics and the Minimum Wage: A Putty-Clay Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 11097, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    19. Michael Luca & Georgios Zervas, 2016. "Fake It Till You Make It: Reputation, Competition, and Yelp Review Fraud," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 62(12), pages 3412-3427, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sudheer Chava & Alexander Oettl & Manpreet Singh, 2023. "Does a One-Size-Fits-All Minimum Wage Cause Financial Stress for Small Businesses?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(11), pages 7095-7117, November.
    2. Nikhil Vellodi, 2018. "Ratings Design and Barriers to Entry," Working Papers 18-13, NET Institute.
    3. Yuci Chen, 2019. "What Do Establishments Do When Wages Increase? Evidence from Minimum Wages in the United States," Working Papers 19-31, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    4. Ekaterina Jardim & Emma van Inwegen, 2019. "Payroll, Revenue, and Labor Demand Effects of the Minimum Wage," Upjohn Working Papers 19-298, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Dara Lee Luca & Michael Luca, 2019. "Survival of the Fittest: The Impact of the Minimum Wage on Firm Exit," NBER Working Papers 25806, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Arindrajit Dube & Attila Lindner, 2024. "Minimum Wages in the 21st Century," RF Berlin - CReAM Discussion Paper Series 2425, Rockwool Foundation Berlin (RF Berlin) - Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM).
    3. Arindrajit Dube & Attila Lindner, 2024. "Minimum Wages in the 21st Century," RF Berlin - CReAM Discussion Paper Series 2425, Rockwool Foundation Berlin (RF Berlin) - Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM).
    4. Dale Belman & Paul Wolfson & Kritkorn Nawakitphaitoon, 2015. "Who Is Affected by the Minimum Wage?," Industrial Relations: A Journal of Economy and Society, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(4), pages 582-621, October.
    5. Medrano-Adán, Luis & Salas-Fumás, Vicente, 2023. "Do minimum wages deliver what they promise? Effects of minimum wage on employment, output, and income inequality from occupational choice theory," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 366-383.
    6. Allegretto, Sylvia & Reich, Michael, 2016. "Are Local Minimum Wages Absorbed by Price Increases? Estimates from Internet-based Restaurant Menus," Institute for Research on Labor and Employment, Working Paper Series qt1b8985k3, Institute of Industrial Relations, UC Berkeley.
    7. Sudheer Chava & Alexander Oettl & Manpreet Singh, 2023. "Does a One-Size-Fits-All Minimum Wage Cause Financial Stress for Small Businesses?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(11), pages 7095-7117, November.
    8. John Schmitt, 2015. "Explaining the Small Employment Effects of the Minimum Wage in the United States," Industrial Relations: A Journal of Economy and Society, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 54(4), pages 547-581, October.
    9. William E. Even & David A. Macpherson, 2014. "The Effect of the Tipped Minimum Wage on Employees in the U.S. Restaurant Industry," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 80(3), pages 633-655, January.
    10. Cuong Viet Nguyen, 2017. "Do minimum wages affect firms’ labor and capital? Evidence from Vietnam," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(2), pages 291-308, April.
    11. Laura Giuliano, 2013. "Minimum Wage Effects on Employment, Substitution, and the Teenage Labor Supply: Evidence from Personnel Data," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 31(1), pages 155-194.
    12. Matthew T. Gustafson & Jason D. Kotter, 2023. "Higher Minimum Wages Reduce Capital Expenditures," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(5), pages 2933-2953, May.
    13. Micheli, Martin, 2016. "Minimum wage: Redistributive or discriminatory policy?," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145830, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    14. Sebastian Link, 2019. "The Price and Employment Response of Firms to the Introduction of Minimum Wages," CESifo Working Paper Series 7575, CESifo.
    15. Nguyen, Cuong, 2012. "Do Minimum Wages Affect Firms’ Labor and Capital? Evidence from Vietnam," MPRA Paper 48656, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Arpaia, Alfonso & Cardoso, Pedro & Kiss, Aron & Van Herck, Kristine & Vandeplas, Anneleen, 2017. "Statutory Minimum Wages in the EU: Institutional Settings and Macroeconomic Implications," IZA Policy Papers 124, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    17. Marianna Kudlyak & Murat Tasci & Didem Tuzemen, 2019. "Minimum Wage Increases and Vacancies," Working Papers 19-30R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 21 Apr 2022.
    18. Mayneris, Florian & Poncet, Sandra & Zhang, Tao, 2018. "Improving or disappearing: Firm-level adjustments to minimum wages in China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 20-42.
    19. Addison, John T. & Blackburn, McKinley L. & Cotti, Chad D., 2009. "Do minimum wages raise employment? Evidence from the U.S. retail-trade sector," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 397-408, August.
    20. Campos Vázquez, Raymundo Miguel & Rodas Milián, James Alexis, 2020. "El efecto faro del salario mínimo en la estructura salarial: evidencias para México," El Trimestre Económico, Fondo de Cultura Económica, vol. 87(345), pages 51-97, enero-mar.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hbs:wpaper:17-088. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: HBS (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/harbsus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.