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Interest premium and external position: a time varying approach

Author

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  • Istvan Konya

    (Center of Economics and Regional Sciences – Institute of Economics, Hungarian Academy of Sciences and University of Pecs, and Central European University)

  • Franklin Maduko

    (Central European University, Economics Department)

Abstract

The paper reexamines the empirical relationship between external indebtedness and the interest premium on government bonds. We use a broad sample of countries between 1980-2017 that includes advanced, emerging and less-developed economies. We show that the relationship is strongly state-dependent, and it varies both with the international financial climate, and with the level of development. Moreover, while we find some evidence for non-linearity, this is mostly driven by turbulent periods. We carry out a number of robustness exercises, which highlight issues related to sample composition, the choice of the debt measure, and the definition of crisis events.

Suggested Citation

  • Istvan Konya & Franklin Maduko, 2018. "Interest premium and external position: a time varying approach," CERS-IE WORKING PAPERS 1829, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:has:discpr:1829
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Evgenia Passari & Hélène Rey, 2015. "Financial Flows and the International Monetary System," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0(584), pages 675-698, May.
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    4. Cavallo, Eduardo & Powell, Andrew & Pedemonte, Mathieu & Tavella, Pilar, 2015. "A new taxonomy of Sudden Stops: Which Sudden Stops should countries be most concerned about?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 47-70.
    5. Salvatore Dell’Erba & Ricardo Hausmann & Ugo Panizza, 2013. "Debt levels, debt composition, and sovereign spreads in emerging and advanced economies," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 29(3), pages 518-547, AUTUMN.
    6. Comelli, Fabio, 2012. "Emerging market sovereign bond spreads: Estimation and back-testing," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 598-625.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    interest premium; net foreign assets; estimation; country panel; state dependence;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

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