IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/wpaper/hal-03460143.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Wage Posting and Business Cycles: a Quantitative Exploration

Author

Listed:
  • Giuseppe Moscarini

    (Yale University [New Haven])

  • Fabien Postel-Vinay

    (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CREST - Centre de Recherche en Économie et Statistique - ENSAI - Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse de l'Information [Bruz] - X - École polytechnique - IP Paris - Institut Polytechnique de Paris - ENSAE Paris - École Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Économique - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, LEA - Laboratoire d'Economie Appliquée - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique, Department of Economics - UCL - University College of London [London], PSE - Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CEPR - Center for Economic Policy Research, University of Bristol [Bristol], IZA - Institute for the Study of Labor - Institute for the Study of Labor, DELTA - Département et Laboratoire d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, INRA)

Abstract

We provide a quantitative exploration of business cycles in a frictional labor market under contract-posting. The steady-state random search and wage-posting model of Burdett and Mortensen (1998) has become the canonical structural framework for empirical analysis of worker turnover and equilibrium wage dispersion. In this paper, we provide an efficient algorithm to simulate a dynamic stochastic equilibrium version of this model, the Stochastic Burdett-Mortensen (SBM) model, and evaluate its performance against empirical evidence on fluctuations in unemployment, vacancies and wages.

Suggested Citation

  • Giuseppe Moscarini & Fabien Postel-Vinay, 2014. "Wage Posting and Business Cycles: a Quantitative Exploration," Working Papers hal-03460143, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03460143
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-03460143
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://sciencespo.hal.science/hal-03460143/document
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jean-Marc Robin, 2011. "On the Dynamics of unemployment and wage Distributions," SciencePo Working papers hal-01024463, HAL.
    2. Giuseppe Moscarini & Fabien Postel-Vinay, 2013. "Stochastic Search Equilibrium," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 80(4), pages 1545-1581.
    3. Marcus Hagedorn & Iourii Manovskii, 2008. "The Cyclical Behavior of Equilibrium Unemployment and Vacancies Revisited," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1692-1706, September.
    4. Bils, Mark & Chang, Yongsung & Kim, Sun-Bin, 2012. "Comparative advantage and unemployment," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 150-165.
    5. Jean‐Marc Robin, 2011. "On the Dynamics of Unemployment and Wage Distributions," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(5), pages 1327-1355, September.
    6. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/eu4vqp9ompqllr09j003nctkn is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Daniel Borowczyk-Martins & Grégory Jolivet & Fabien Postel-Vinay, 2013. "Accounting for Endogeneity in Matching Function Estimation," SciencePo Working papers hal-03473875, HAL.
    8. Mortensen, Dale & Pissarides, Christopher, 2011. "Job Creation and Job Destruction in the Theory of Unemployment," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 1, pages 1-19.
    9. Bontemps, Christian & Robin, Jean-Marc & van den Berg, Gerard J, 2000. "Equilibrium Search with Continuous Productivity Dispersion: Theory and Nonparametric Estimation," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 41(2), pages 305-358, May.
    10. Christopher A. Pissarides & Barbara Petrongolo, 2001. "Looking into the Black Box: A Survey of the Matching Function," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 39(2), pages 390-431, June.
    11. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/eu4vqp9ompqllr09j003nctkn is not listed on IDEAS
    12. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/4l136f59vb8mcalu5p6p5li007 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/c8dmi8nm4pdjkuc9g8grh35j2 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Fabien Postel-Vinay & Jean-Marc Robin, 2002. "Equilibrium Wage Dispersion with Worker and Employer Heterogeneity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(6), pages 2295-2350, November.
    15. Gregory Jolivet & Fabien Postel-Vinay & Jean-Marc Robin, 2006. "The Empirical Content of the Job Search Model: Labor Mobility and Wage Distributions in Europe and the U.S.$," Contributions to Economic Analysis, in: Structural Models of Wage and Employment Dynamics, pages 269-308, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    16. Guido Menzio & Shouyong Shi, 2011. "Efficient Search on the Job and the Business Cycle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(3), pages 468-510.
    17. Giuseppe Moscarini & Fabien Postel-Vinay, 2016. "Did the Job Ladder Fail after the Great Recession?," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34(S1), pages 55-93.
    18. Daniel Borowczyk-Martins & Gregory Jolivet & Fabien Postel-Vinay, 2013. "Accounting For Endogeneity in Matching Function Estimation," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 16(3), pages 440-451, July.
    19. Giuseppe Moscarini & Fabien Postel-Vinay, 2012. "The Contribution of Large and Small Employers to Job Creation in Times of High and Low Unemployment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(6), pages 2509-2539, October.
    20. Diamond, Peter A, 1982. "Aggregate Demand Management in Search Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(5), pages 881-894, October.
    21. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/6smk3sindo94e9l730pea1ea5e is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Fabien Postel-Vinay & Jean-Marc Robin, 2002. "Equilibrium Wage Dispersion with Worker and Employer Heterogeneity," Post-Print hal-03458567, HAL.
    23. Shigeru Fujita & Giuseppe Moscarini, 2017. "Recall and Unemployment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(12), pages 3875-3916, December.
    24. Robert Shimer, 2005. "The Cyclical Behavior of Equilibrium Unemployment and Vacancies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 25-49, March.
    25. Robert E. Hall, 2017. "High Discounts and High Unemployment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(2), pages 305-330, February.
    26. Christopher A. Pissarides, 2009. "The Unemployment Volatility Puzzle: Is Wage Stickiness the Answer?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(5), pages 1339-1369, September.
    27. Giuseppe Moscarini & Fabien Postel-Vinay, 2013. "Stochastic Search Equilibrium," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 80(4), pages 1545-1581.
    28. Robert Shimer, 2012. "Reassessing the Ins and Outs of Unemployment," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 15(2), pages 127-148, April.
    29. Thomas Lemieux, 2006. "Increasing Residual Wage Inequality: Composition Effects, Noisy Data, or Rising Demand for Skill?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(3), pages 461-498, June.
    30. Coles, Melvyn & Mortensen, Dale T., 2011. "Equilibrium Wage and Employment Dynamics in a Model of Wage Posting without Commitment," IZA Discussion Papers 5900, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    31. Burdett, Kenneth & Mortensen, Dale T, 1998. "Wage Differentials, Employer Size, and Unemployment," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(2), pages 257-273, May.
    32. Lisa B. Kahn & Erika McEntarfer, 2014. "Employment Cyclicality and Firm Quality," NBER Working Papers 20698, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    33. Stephen E. Spear & Sanjay Srivastava, 1987. "On Repeated Moral Hazard with Discounting," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 54(4), pages 599-617.
    34. Andreas Hornstein & Per Krusell & Giovanni L. Violante, 2011. "Frictional Wage Dispersion in Search Models: A Quantitative Assessment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(7), pages 2873-2898, December.
    35. Diamond, Peter A., 1971. "A model of price adjustment," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 156-168, June.
    36. Kjetil Storesletten & Chris I. Telmer & Amir Yaron, 2004. "Cyclical Dynamics in Idiosyncratic Labor Market Risk," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(3), pages 695-717, June.
    37. John G. Fernald, 2012. "A quarterly, utilization-adjusted series on total factor productivity," Working Paper Series 2012-19, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    38. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/59cr4u3mmr9pobrceptvua5g8c is not listed on IDEAS
    39. Coase, Ronald H, 1972. "Durability and Monopoly," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 15(1), pages 143-149, April.
    40. Burgess, Simon & Turon, Hélène, 2010. "Worker flows, job flows and unemployment in a matching model," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 393-408, April.
    41. Pissarides, Christopher A, 1985. "Short-run Equilibrium Dynamics of Unemployment Vacancies, and Real Wages," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(4), pages 676-690, September.
    42. Giuseppe Moscarini & Fabien Postel-Vinay, 2009. "The Timing of Labor Market Expansions: New Facts and a New Hypothesis," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2008, Volume 23, pages 1-51, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    43. Grégory Jolivet & Fabien Postel-Vinay & Jean-Marc Robin, 2006. "The empirical content of the job search model: labor mobility and wage distributions in Europe and the US," SciencePo Working papers hal-03587657, HAL.
    44. Sargent, Thomas & Ljungqvist, Lars, 2015. "The Fundamental Surplus in Matching Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 10489, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    45. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/dc0ckec3fcb29ms985085gkbp is not listed on IDEAS
    46. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/22qd4iha9ql84kd2t534hdeb is not listed on IDEAS
    47. Giuseppe Moscarini & Fabien Postel-Vinay, 2012. "The Contribution of Large and Small Employers to Job Creation in Times of High and Low Unemployment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(6), pages 2509-2539, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Marta Lachowska & Alexandre Mas & Raffaele Saggio & Stephen A. Woodbury, 2022. "Wage Posting or Wage Bargaining? A Test Using Dual Jobholders," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 40(S1), pages 469-493.
    2. Isabel Cairó & Shigeru Fujita & Camilo Morales-Jimenez, 2020. "The Cyclicality of Labor Force Participation Flows: The Role of Labor Supply Elasticities and Wage Rigidity," Working Papers 20-23, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    3. Jacek Suda, 2016. "On the job search and working capital," IBS Working Papers 06/2016, Instytut Badan Strukturalnych.
    4. Andreas I. Mueller, 2017. "Separations, Sorting, and Cyclical Unemployment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(7), pages 2081-2107, July.
    5. Andrew Coleman & Guanyu Zheng, 2020. "Job-to-job transitions and the regional job ladder," Working Papers 2020/01, New Zealand Productivity Commission.
    6. Isabel Cairo & Shigeru Fujita & Camilo Morales-Jimenez, 2022. "The Cyclicality of Labor Force Participation Flows: The Role of Labor," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 43, pages 197-216, January.
    7. Yuhang Zheng & Zhehao Huang & Tianpei Jiang, 2020. "Will the Economic Recession Inhibit the Out-of-Pocket Payment Willingness for Health Care?," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(3), pages 1-16, January.
    8. Pereira, João & Ramos, Raul & Martins, Pedro S., 2024. "Wage cyclicality and labour market institutions," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1469, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    9. Clémence Berson & Marta de Philippis & Eliana Viviano, 2020. "Job-to-Job Flows and Wage Dynamics in France and Italy," Working papers 756, Banque de France.
    10. Chiara Mussida & Luca Zanin, 2020. "I found a better job opportunity! Voluntary job mobility of employees and temporary contracts before and after the great recession in France, Italy and Spain," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(1), pages 47-98, July.
    11. Giuseppe Moscarini & Fabien Postel-Vinay, 2016. "Wage Posting and Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(5), pages 208-213, May.
    12. Guido Menzio & Randall Wright, 2016. "Introduction to the Special Issue in Honor of Dale Mortensen," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 19, pages 1-3, January.
    13. Guo, Angela & Krolikowski, Pawel & Yang, Meifeng, 2023. "Displaced workers and the pandemic recession," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    14. James Bessen & Erich Denk & Chen Meng, 2024. "Perpetuating wage inequality: evidence from salary history bans," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 22(3), pages 709-733, September.
    15. Jacek Suda & Marek Antosiewicz, 2016. "Business cycles and on the job search," IBS Working Papers 07/2016, Instytut Badan Strukturalnych.
    16. GORYUNOV, Maxim, 2017. "Sorting when firms have size," Economics Working Papers MWP 2017/09, European University Institute.
    17. Cynthia L. Doniger, 2021. "What Can We Learn from Asynchronous Wage Changes?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-055r1, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), revised 31 Mar 2022.
    18. Michał Brzoza-Brzezina & Jacek Suda, 2021. "Are DSGE models irreparably flawed?," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 52(3), pages 227-252.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/5taek6gt3k8m0r69e1j1ombcc5 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5taek6gt3k8m0r69e1j1ombcc5 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Giuseppe Moscarini & Fabien Postel-Vinay, 2016. "Wage Posting and Business Cycles: a Quantitative Exploration," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 19, pages 135-160, January.
    4. Giuseppe Moscarini & Fabien Postel-Vinay, 2024. "On the Job Search and Business Cycles," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 75(1), pages 73-112.
    5. Rogerson, Richard & Shimer, Robert, 2011. "Search in Macroeconomic Models of the Labor Market," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 7, pages Pages: 61, Elsevier.
    6. Leo Kaas & Philipp Kircher, 2015. "Efficient Firm Dynamics in a Frictional Labor Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(10), pages 3030-3060, October.
    7. Andreas Hornstein & Per Krusell & Giovanni L. Violante, 2011. "Frictional Wage Dispersion in Search Models: A Quantitative Assessment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(7), pages 2873-2898, December.
    8. Giuseppe Moscarini & Fabien Postel-Vinay, 2016. "Did the Job Ladder Fail after the Great Recession?," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34(S1), pages 55-93.
    9. Violante, Giovanni & Hornstein, Andreas, 2006. "Frictional Wage Dispersion in Search Models: A Quantitative Approach," CEPR Discussion Papers 5935, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Giuseppe Moscarini & Fabien Postel-Vinay, 2013. "Stochastic Search Equilibrium," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 80(4), pages 1545-1581.
    11. Murtin, Fabrice & Robin, Jean-Marc, 2018. "Labor market reforms and unemployment dynamics," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 3-19.
    12. Wolthoff, Ronald P., 2011. "It's About Time: Implications of the Period Length in an Equilibrium Job Search Model," IZA Discussion Papers 6002, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    13. Ronald Wolthoff, 2014. "It'S About Time: Implications Of The Period Length In An Equilibrium Search Model," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 55(3), pages 839-867, August.
    14. Etienne Lalé, 2019. "Search and Multiple Jobholding," Upjohn Working Papers 19-305, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
    15. Peter Diamond, 2011. "Unemployment, Vacancies, Wages," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(4), pages 1045-1072, June.
    16. Philip Jung & Moritz Kuhn, 2019. "Earnings Losses and Labor Mobility Over the Life Cycle," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 17(3), pages 678-724.
    17. R. Jason Faberman & Andreas I. Mueller & Ayşegül Şahin & Giorgio Topa, 2022. "Job Search Behavior Among the Employed and Non‐Employed," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 90(4), pages 1743-1779, July.
    18. Ryan Michaels & David Ratner & Michael Elsby, 2016. "Vacancy Chains," 2016 Meeting Papers 753, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    19. Cahuc, Pierre, 2014. "Search, flows, job creations and destructions," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 22-29.
    20. Pissarides, Christopher A., 2015. "Dale Mortensen: An appreciation," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 1-6.
    21. Ortego-Marti, Victor, 2016. "Unemployment history and frictional wage dispersion," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 5-22.
    22. Steven J. Davis & Till Von Wachter, 2011. "Recessions and the Costs of Job Loss," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 42(2 (Fall)), pages 1-72.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Equilibrium Job Search; Dynamic Contracts; Stochastic Dynamics; Business Cycles;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03460143. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.