IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/wpaper/hal-03103775.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Trend of Core inflation in DRCongo : a model based on the Structural VAR approach
[TENDANCE DE L'INFLATION SOUS-JACENTE EN RDC : une modélisation à partir de l'approche VAR Structurelle ]

Author

Listed:
  • Pacifique K. Murhula

    (Université évangélique en Afrique)

Abstract

In diesem Beitrag schätzen wir ein strukturelles autoregressives Modell (SVAR), um den Trend der zugrunde liegenden Inflation in der Demokratischen Republik Kongo zu analysieren, und folgen dem Identifikationsansatz von Blanchard und Quah (1989), um langfristige Restriktionen auf der Grundlage der Wirtschaftstheorie aufzuerlegen. Tatsächlich wird die Inflation im Lichte der Lehren der Monetaristen als ein rein monetäres Phänomen wahrgenommen, und die Neuausrichtung der Geldpolitik auf das Ziel der Preisstabilität entspringt der fast einhelligen Ansicht von Ökonomen und Zentralbankern, dass die Geldpolitik die Aktivität langfristig nicht beeinflusst. Daher haben mehrere Zentralbanken Preisstabilität als oberstes Ziel ihrer Geldpolitik festgelegt. Diese wichtige Rolle können die Zentralbanken jedoch nicht in vollem Umfang wahrnehmen, ohne die Kerninflation zu kontrollieren, da nur diese auf monetäre Faktoren zurückzuführen ist. Zu diesem Zweck verwenden wir kongolesische Daten zur Wachstumsrate der Aktivität und der Inflationsrate von 2002Q1 bis 2019Q4. Unsere Ergebnisse bestätigen im Großen und Ganzen die in der Literatur gefundenen und zeigen, dass der monetäre Schock in Übereinstimmung mit der Identifikationsbeschränkung fast keine Auswirkungen auf die Wirtschaftstätigkeit hat, was dazu tendiert, die Vertikalität der Phillips-Kurve zu bestätigen und die Persistenz des negativen realen Schocks erklärt die Volatilität der Inflation in der Demokratischen Republik Kongo (DRK) erheblich.

Suggested Citation

  • Pacifique K. Murhula, 2021. "Trend of Core inflation in DRCongo : a model based on the Structural VAR approach [TENDANCE DE L'INFLATION SOUS-JACENTE EN RDC : une modélisation à partir de l'approche VAR Structurelle ]," Working Papers hal-03103775, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03103775
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-03103775
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hal.science/hal-03103775/document
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-673, September.
    2. Ryadh M. Alkhareif & William A. Barnett, 2015. "Core Inflation Indicators for Saudi Arabia," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 62(3), pages 257-266, June.
    3. Michael F. Bryan & Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1994. "Measuring Core Inflation," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy, pages 195-219, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Michael F. Bryan & Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1993. "The consumer price index as a measure of inflation," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 29(Q IV), pages 15-24.
    5. Ryadh M. Alkhareif & William A. Barnett, 2015. "Core Inflation Indicators for Saudi Arabia," Panoeconomicus, Savez ekonomista Vojvodine, Novi Sad, Serbia, vol. 62(3), pages 257-266.
    6. Sajad Boroumand & Teimour Mohammadi & Jamshid Pajooyan & Abbas Memarnejad, 2019. "The Effect of Exchange Rate, Oil Prices and Global Inflation Shocks on Macroeconomic Variables for the Iranian Economy in the form of a DSGE Model," Iranian Economic Review (IER), Faculty of Economics,University of Tehran.Tehran,Iran, vol. 23(4), pages 1057-1083, Autumn.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Murhula, Pacifique, 2020. "Tendance de l'inflation sous-jacente en RDC: une modélisation à partir de l'approche VAR structurelle [Trend of Core inflation in DRCongo: a model based on the Structural VAR approach]," MPRA Paper 105005, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 08 Jan 2021.
    2. Sahu, Priyanka, 2018. "The Impact of Shocks on Core Inflation; Evidence from India," MPRA Paper 86588, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Landau, Bettina, 2000. "Core inflation rates: a comparison of methods based on west German data," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2000,04, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    4. George Kapetanios & Gonzalo Camba-Mendez, 2005. "Forecasting euro area inflation using dynamic factor measures of underlying inflation," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(7), pages 491-503.
    5. Priyanka Sahu, 2021. "A Study on the Dynamic Behaviour of Headline Versus Core Inflation: Evidence from India," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 22(6), pages 1574-1593, December.
    6. Paulo Picchetti & Fabio Kanczuk, 2001. "An Application of Quah And Vaheys Svar Methodology for Estimating Core Inflation in Brazil," Anais do XXIX Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 29th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 019, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    7. repec:fgv:epgrbe:v:65:n:2:a:5 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Mio, Hitoshi, 2002. "Identifying Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply Components of Inflation Rate: A Structural Vector Autoregression Analysis for Japan," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 20(1), pages 33-56, January.
    9. Mark A. Wynne, 2008. "Core inflation: a review of some conceptual issues," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 90(May), pages 205-228.
    10. Iris Claus, 1997. "A Measure of Underlying Inflation in the United States," Staff Working Papers 97-20, Bank of Canada.
    11. Durai, S. Raja Sethu & Ramachandran, M., 2007. "Core inflation for India," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 365-383, April.
    12. Ashima Goyal & Ayan Kumar Pujari, 2005. "Analyzing Core Inflation in India: A Structural VAR Approach," The IUP Journal of Monetary Economics, IUP Publications, vol. 0(2), pages 76-90, May.
    13. Alkhareif, Ryadh, 2016. "Are there significant premiums in the Saudi stock market?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 108-115.
    14. Javier Escobal & Marco Castillo del Castillo, 1994. "Sesgos en la medición de la inflación en contextos inflacionarios: El caso peruano," Documentos de Investigación dt21, Grupo de Análisis para el Desarrollo (GRADE).
    15. Dowd, Kevin & Cotter, John & Loh, Lixia, 2011. "U.S. Core Inflation: A Wavelet Analysis," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(4), pages 513-536, September.
    16. Scott Roger, 1998. "Core inflation: concepts, uses and measurement," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G98/9, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    17. Bagliano, Fabio C. & Morana, Claudio, 2003. "Measuring US core inflation: A common trends approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 197-212, June.
    18. Robert C. Feenstra & Erwin W. Diewert, "undated". "Imputation and Price Indexes: Theory and Evidence from the International Price Program," Department of Economics 00-12, California Davis - Department of Economics.
    19. da Silva Filho, Tito Nícias Teixeira & Figueiredo, Francisco Marcos Rodrigues, 2011. "Has Core Inflation Been Doing a Good Job in Brazil?," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 65(2), June.
    20. Carlos Felipe Jaramillo, 1998. "Improving the Measurement of Core Inflation in Colombia Using Asymmetric Trimmed Means," Borradores de Economia 091, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    21. Riccardo Cristadoro & Giuseppe Saporito & Fabrizio Venditti, 2013. "Forecasting inflation and tracking monetary policy in the euro area: does national information help?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 1065-1086, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-03103775. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.