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Core Inflation Indicators For Saudi Arabia

Author

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  • William A. Barnett

    (Department of Economics, University of Kansas; Center for Financial Stability, New York City; IC2 Institute, University of Texas at Austin)

  • Ryadh M. Alkhareif

    (Economic Research Department, Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency)

Abstract

This paper constructs and analyzes core inflation indicators for Saudi Arabia for the period of March 2012 to May 2014 using two alternative approaches: the Exclusion Method (ex food and housing/rent) and the Statistical Method. The findings of the analysis suggest that the ex food and housing/rent inflation is more volatile than the overall CPI inflation over the sample period. In contrast, the statistical core inflation is relatively more stable and less volatile. Moreover, the ex food and housing/rent inflation is only weakly correlated with headline inflation, whereas the statistical core inflation exhibits a stronger correlation. This combination of lower volatility and higher correlation with headline inflation makes the statistical method a much better choice for policymakers. From a monetary policy standpoint, using a bundle of core inflation measures, including both properly constructed Exclusion and Statistical methods, is more desirable, especially when variation across measures is widespread, as is the case in Saudi Arabia.

Suggested Citation

  • William A. Barnett & Ryadh M. Alkhareif, 2015. "Core Inflation Indicators For Saudi Arabia," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 201410, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Mar 2015.
    • Handle: RePEc:kan:wpaper:201410
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    File URL: http://www2.ku.edu/~kuwpaper/2014Papers/201410.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ryadh M. Alkhareif & William A. Barnett, 2012. "Divisia Monetary Aggregates for the GCC Countries," International Symposia in Economic Theory and Econometrics, in: Recent Developments in Alternative Finance: Empirical Assessments and Economic Implications, pages 1-37, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    2. William A. Barnett & Ryadh M. Alkhareif, 2015. "Modern and Traditional Methods for Measuring Money Supply: The Case of Saudi Arabia," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 3(1), pages 1-7, February.
    3. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2003. "Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why?," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2002, Volume 17, pages 159-230, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Mark A. Wynne, 2008. "Core inflation: a review of some conceptual issues," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 90(May), pages 205-228.
    5. Michael F. Bryan & Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1994. "Measuring Core Inflation," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy, pages 195-219, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark, 2011. "Dynamic Factor Models," Scholarly Articles 28469541, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    7. Cristadoro, Riccardo & Forni, Mario & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Veronese, Giovanni, 2005. "A Core Inflation Indicator for the Euro Area," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 539-560, June.
    8. Filippo Altissimo & Riccardo Cristadoro & Mario Forni & Marco Lippi & Giovanni Veronese, 2010. "New Eurocoin: Tracking Economic Growth in Real Time," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(4), pages 1024-1034, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Priyanka Sahu, 2021. "A Study on the Dynamic Behaviour of Headline Versus Core Inflation: Evidence from India," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 22(6), pages 1574-1593, December.
    2. Alkhareif, Ryadh, 2016. "Are there significant premiums in the Saudi stock market?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 108-115.
    3. Pacifique K. Murhula, 2021. "Trend of Core inflation in DRCongo : a model based on the Structural VAR approach [TENDANCE DE L'INFLATION SOUS-JACENTE EN RDC : une modélisation à partir de l'approche VAR Structurelle ]," Working Papers hal-03103775, HAL.
    4. Sahu, Priyanka, 2018. "The Impact of Shocks on Core Inflation; Evidence from India," MPRA Paper 86588, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Murhula, Pacifique, 2020. "Tendance de l'inflation sous-jacente en RDC: une modélisation à partir de l'approche VAR structurelle [Trend of Core inflation in DRCongo: a model based on the Structural VAR approach]," MPRA Paper 105005, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 08 Jan 2021.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    consumer price index; core inflation; generalized dynamic factor model; monetary policy.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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