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The Excess Returns of 'Quality' Stocks: A Behavioral Anomaly

Author

Listed:
  • Jean-Philippe Bouchaud

    (CFM - Capital Fund Management)

  • Ciliberti Stefano
  • Augustin Landier

    (TSE-R - Toulouse School of Economics - UT Capitole - Université Toulouse Capitole - UT - Université de Toulouse - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Guillaume Simon

    (UT2J - Université Toulouse - Jean Jaurès - UT - Université de Toulouse)

  • David Thesmar

    (GREGH - Groupement de Recherche et d'Etudes en Gestion à HEC - HEC Paris - Ecole des Hautes Etudes Commerciales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

This note investigates the causes of the quality anomaly, which is one of the strongest and most scalable anomalies in equity markets. We explore two potential explanations. The "risk view", whereby investing in high quality firms is somehow riskier, so that the higher returns of a quality portfolio are a compensation for risk exposure. This view is consistent with the Efficient Market Hypothesis. The other view is the "behavioral view", which states that some investors persistently underestimate the true value of high quality firms. We find no evidence in favor of the "risk view": The returns from investing in quality firms are abnormally high on a risk-adjusted basis, and are not prone to crashes. We provide novel evidence in favor of the "behavioral view": In their forecasts of future prices, and while being overall overoptimistic, analysts systematically underestimate the future return of high quality firms, compared to low quality firms.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Ciliberti Stefano & Augustin Landier & Guillaume Simon & David Thesmar, 2016. "The Excess Returns of 'Quality' Stocks: A Behavioral Anomaly," Working Papers hal-01993422, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01993422
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Olivier Guedj & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2005. "Experts' Earning Forecasts: Bias, Herding And Gossamer Information," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(07), pages 933-946.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Thillaikkoothan Palanichamy & Parthajit Kayal, 2022. "Multiple Dimensions of Cyclicality in Investing," Working Papers 2022-216, Madras School of Economics,Chennai,India.
    3. Rizzo, Emanuele, 2018. "Essays on corporate governance and the impact of regulation on financial markets," Other publications TiSEM b5158260-ea13-4763-b992-6, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    4. Rai, Anish & Mahata, Ajit & Nurujjaman, Md & Majhi, Sushovan & Debnath, Kanish, 2022. "A sentiment-based modeling and analysis of stock price during the COVID-19: U- and Swoosh-shaped recovery," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 592(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Quality anomaly; financial analysts misplaced focus; behavioral biases;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G00 - Financial Economics - - General - - - General
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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