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Experts' Earning Forecasts: Bias, Herding And Gossamer Information

Author

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  • OLIVIER GUEDJ

    (Science & Finance, Capital Fund Management, 6-8 Bvd Haussmann, 75 009 Paris, France)

  • JEAN-PHILIPPE BOUCHAUD

    (Science & Finance, Capital Fund Management, 6-8 Bvd Haussmann, 75 009 Paris, France)

Abstract

We study the statistics of earning forecasts of US, EU, UK and JP stocks during the period 1987–2004. We confirm, on this large data set, that financial analysts are on average over-optimistic and show a pronounced herding behavior. These effects are time dependent, and were particularly strong in the early 1990s and during the Internet bubble. We furthermore find that their forecast ability is, in relative terms, quite poor and comparable in quality, a year ahead, to the simplest "no change" forecast. As a result of herding, analysts agree with each other five to ten times more than with the actual result. We have shown that significant differences exist between US stocks and EU stocks, that may partly be explained as a company size effect. Interestingly, herding effects appear to be stronger in the US than in the Eurozone. Finally, we study the correlation of errors across stocks and show that significant sectorization occurs, some sectors being easier to predict than others. These results add to the list of arguments suggesting that the tenets of Efficient Market Theory are untenable.

Suggested Citation

  • Olivier Guedj & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2005. "Experts' Earning Forecasts: Bias, Herding And Gossamer Information," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 8(07), pages 933-946.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:ijtafx:v:08:y:2005:i:07:n:s0219024905003281
    DOI: 10.1142/S0219024905003281
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Shleifer, Andrei, 2000. "Inefficient Markets: An Introduction to Behavioral Finance," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198292272.
    2. Bouchaud,Jean-Philippe & Potters,Marc, 2003. "Theory of Financial Risk and Derivative Pricing," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521819169, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Armand Joulin & Augustin Lefevre & Daniel Grunberg & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2008. "Stock price jumps: news and volume play a minor role," Papers 0803.1769, arXiv.org.
    2. Christian Borghesi & Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2007. "Of songs and men: a model for multiple choice with herding," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 41(4), pages 557-568, August.
    3. Alexander T. Nicolai & Ann‐Christine Schulz & Thomas W. Thomas, 2010. "What Wall Street Wants – Exploring the Role of Security Analysts in the Evolution and Spread of Management Concepts," Journal of Management Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(1), pages 162-189, January.
    4. Jun-ichi Maskawa, 2016. "Collective Behavior of Market Participants during Abrupt Stock Price Changes," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(8), pages 1-18, August.
    5. Kourtidis, Dimitrios & Šević, Željko & Chatzoglou, Prodromos, 2011. "Investors’ trading activity: A behavioural perspective and empirical results," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 40(5), pages 548-557.
    6. Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Ciliberti Stefano & Augustin Landier & Guillaume Simon & David Thesmar, 2016. "The Excess Returns of 'Quality' Stocks: A Behavioral Anomaly," Working Papers hal-01993422, HAL.
    7. Wyart, Matthieu & Bouchaud, Jean-Philippe, 2007. "Self-referential behaviour, overreaction and conventions in financial markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 1-24, May.
    8. Nigel Barradale & Thomas Plenborg & Simone Staehr, 2022. "Investor feedback: impact on analyst biases and investor critical evaluation," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 62(1), pages 767-803, March.
    9. Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & J. Doyne Farmer & Fabrizio Lillo, 2008. "How markets slowly digest changes in supply and demand," Papers 0809.0822, arXiv.org.
    10. Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, 2012. "Crises and collective socio-economic phenomena: simple models and challenges," Papers 1209.0453, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2012.

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