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Expectations and Investment

In: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2015, Volume 30

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  • Nicola Gennaioli
  • Yueran Ma
  • Andrei Shleifer

Abstract

Using micro data from Duke University quarterly survey of Chief Financial Officers, we show that corporate investment plans as well as actual investment are well explained by CFOs' expectations of earnings growth. The information in expectations data is not subsumed by traditional variables, such as Tobin's Q or discount rates. We also show that errors in CFO expectations of earnings growth are predictable from past earnings and other data, pointing to extrapolative structure of expectations and suggesting that expectations may not be rational. This evidence, like earlier findings in finance, points to the usefulness of data on actual expectations for understanding economic behavior.
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Suggested Citation

  • Nicola Gennaioli & Yueran Ma & Andrei Shleifer, 2015. "Expectations and Investment," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2015, Volume 30, pages 379-431, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:13589
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E03 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Macroeconomics
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • G3 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance

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