IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/wpaper/hal-01937929.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Bank insolvency risk and Z-score measures: caveats and best practice

Author

Listed:
  • Vincent Bouvatier

    (EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Laetitia Lepetit

    (LAPE - Laboratoire d'Analyse et de Prospective Economique - GIO - Gouvernance des Institutions et des Organisations - UNILIM - Université de Limoges)

  • Pierre-Nicolas Rehault

    (LAPE - Laboratoire d'Analyse et de Prospective Economique - GIO - Gouvernance des Institutions et des Organisations - UNILIM - Université de Limoges)

  • Frank Strobel

    (University of Birmingham [Birmingham])

Abstract

We highlight caveats arising in the application of traditional ROA-based Z-scores for the measurement of bank insolvency risk, develop alternative Z-score measures to resolve these issues , and make recommendations for best practice for the US/Europe based on the experience of the …nancial crisis of 2007-2008. Using a probabilistic approach (i) our novel regulatory capital Z-score dominates traditional Z-score measures for both US/Europe; (ii) Z-scores computed with exponentially weighted moments dominate those with moving moments for the US sample, but not for Europe. For both US/Europe, using a multivariate logit approach (i) allows computation of augmented Z-scores that provide probabilities of distress that better discriminate between distressed/surviving banks than the probabilistic approach; (ii) suggests that the ROA-based Z-score using current values of the capital-asset ratio is best, calculated either with moving or exponentially weighted moments.

Suggested Citation

  • Vincent Bouvatier & Laetitia Lepetit & Pierre-Nicolas Rehault & Frank Strobel, 2018. "Bank insolvency risk and Z-score measures: caveats and best practice," Working Papers hal-01937929, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01937929
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://unilim.hal.science/hal-01937929
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://unilim.hal.science/hal-01937929/document
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. J. A. John & N. R. Draper, 1980. "An Alternative Family of Transformations," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 29(2), pages 190-197, June.
    2. Takaya Saito & Marc Rehmsmeier, 2015. "The Precision-Recall Plot Is More Informative than the ROC Plot When Evaluating Binary Classifiers on Imbalanced Datasets," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(3), pages 1-21, March.
    3. Bertay, Ata Can & Demirgüç-Kunt, Asli & Huizinga, Harry, 2013. "Do we need big banks? Evidence on performance, strategy and market discipline," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 532-558.
    4. Lepetit, Laetitia & Strobel, Frank, 2015. "Bank insolvency risk and Z-score measures: A refinement," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 214-224.
    5. Beck, Thorsten & De Jonghe, Olivier & Schepens, Glenn, 2013. "Bank competition and stability: Cross-country heterogeneity," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 218-244.
    6. Fratianni, Michele & Marchionne, Francesco, 2013. "The banking bailout of the subprime crisis: Was the bang worth the buck?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 240-264.
    7. Lepetit, Laetitia & Strobel, Frank, 2013. "Bank insolvency risk and time-varying Z-score measures," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 73-87.
    8. Vuong, Quang H, 1989. "Likelihood Ratio Tests for Model Selection and Non-nested Hypotheses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 307-333, March.
    9. Kevin A. Clarke, 2003. "Nonparametric Model Discrimination in International Relations," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 47(1), pages 72-93, February.
    10. Emmanuel Farhi & Jean Tirole, 2012. "Collective Moral Hazard, Maturity Mismatch, and Systemic Bailouts," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(1), pages 60-93, February.
    11. Boyd, John H. & Prescott, Edward C., 1986. "Financial intermediary-coalitions," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 211-232, April.
    12. Berger, Allen N. & Goulding, William & Rice, Tara, 2014. "Do small businesses still prefer community banks?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 264-278.
    13. Douglas W. Diamond, 1984. "Financial Intermediation and Delegated Monitoring," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 51(3), pages 393-414.
    14. Nier, Erlend & Baumann, Ursel, 2006. "Market discipline, disclosure and moral hazard in banking," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 332-361, July.
    15. Fukuyama, Hirofumi & Matousek, Roman, 2017. "Modelling bank performance: A network DEA approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 259(2), pages 721-732.
    16. Williamson, Stephen D., 1986. "Costly monitoring, financial intermediation, and equilibrium credit rationing," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 159-179, September.
    17. Gabriel Pino & Subhash C. Sharma, 2019. "On the Contagion Effect in the US Banking Sector," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(1), pages 261-280, February.
    18. Vazquez, Francisco & Federico, Pablo, 2015. "Bank funding structures and risk: Evidence from the global financial crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-14.
    19. Simon H. Kwan, 2004. "Risk and return of publicly held versus privately owned banks," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Sep, pages 97-107.
    20. Tsionas, Mike & Mamatzakis, Emmanuel C., 2017. "Corrigendum to ‘Adjustment costs in the technical efficiency: An application to global banking’ [European Journal of Operational Research 256 (2017) 640–649]," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 257(2), pages 704-704.
    21. David J. Hand, 2012. "Assessing the Performance of Classification Methods," International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, vol. 80(3), pages 400-414, December.
    22. DeYoung, Robert & Torna, Gökhan, 2013. "Nontraditional banking activities and bank failures during the financial crisis," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 397-421.
    23. Han, I & Liang, Hsin-Yu & Chan, Kam C., 2016. "Locational concentration and institutional diversification: Evidence from foreign direct investments in the banking industry," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 185-199.
    24. repec:zbw:bofitp:2014_008 is not listed on IDEAS
    25. Doumpos, Michael & Gaganis, Chrysovalantis & Pasiouras, Fotios, 2015. "Central bank independence, financial supervision structure and bank soundness: An empirical analysis around the crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(S1), pages 69-83.
    26. Hendrik Hakenes & Iftekhar Hasan & PhilIP Molyneux & Ru Xie, 2015. "Small Banks and Local Economic Development," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 19(2), pages 653-683.
    27. Tjur, Tue, 2009. "Coefficients of Determination in Logistic Regression Models—A New Proposal: The Coefficient of Discrimination," The American Statistician, American Statistical Association, vol. 63(4), pages 366-372.
    28. Fang, Yiwei & Hasan, Iftekhar & Marton, Katherin, 2014. "Institutional development and bank stability: Evidence from transition countries," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 160-176.
    29. Tsionas, Euthimios G. & Mamatzakis, Emmanuel C., 2017. "Adjustment costs in the technical efficiency: An application to global banking," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 256(2), pages 640-649.
    30. Berger, Allen N. & Bouwman, Christa H.S. & Kick, Thomas & Schaeck, Klaus, 2016. "Bank liquidity creation following regulatory interventions and capital support," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 115-141.
    31. Lepetit, Laetitia & Strobel, Frank, 2013. "Bank insolvency risk and time-varying Z-score measures," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 73-87.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hafeez, Bilal & Li, Xiping & Kabir, M. Humayun & Tripe, David, 2022. "Measuring bank risk: Forward-looking z-score," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    2. Brogi, Marina & Lagasio, Valentina, 2022. "Better safe than sorry. Bank corporate governance, risk-taking, and performance," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 44(C).
    3. Guo, Lin & Prezas, Alexandros P., 2019. "Market monitoring and influence: evidence from deposit pricing and liability composition from 1986 to 2013," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 146-166.
    4. Daniel Ofori-Sasu & Emmanuel Sarpong-Kumankoma & Saint Kuttu & Elikplimi Komla Agbloyor & Joshua Yindenaba Abor, 2024. "Risk-taking and systemic banking crisis in Africa: do regulatory policy framework provide new insight in threshold models?," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 26(2), pages 1-37, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bouvatier, Vincent & Lepetit, Laetitia & Rehault, Pierre-Nicolas & Strobel, Frank, 2023. "Time-varying Z-score measures for bank insolvency risk: Best practice," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 170-179.
    2. Lepetit, Laetitia & Strobel, Frank, 2015. "Bank insolvency risk and Z-score measures: A refinement," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 214-224.
    3. Schulte, Markus & Winkler, Adalbert, 2019. "Drivers of solvency risk – Are microfinance institutions different?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 403-426.
    4. Hafeez, Bilal & Li, Xiping & Kabir, M. Humayun & Tripe, David, 2022. "Measuring bank risk: Forward-looking z-score," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    5. Nyola, Annick Pamen & Sauviat, Alain & Tarazi, Amine & Danisman, Gamze Ozturk, 2021. "How organizational and geographic complexity influence performance: Evidence from European banks," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    6. Fosu, Samuel & Ntim, Collins G. & Coffie, William & Murinde, Victor, 2017. "Bank opacity and risk-taking: Evidence from analysts’ forecasts," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 81-95.
    7. Papanikolaou, Nikolaos I., 2018. "To be bailed out or to be left to fail? A dynamic competing risks hazard analysis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 61-85.
    8. Unda, Luisa A. & Ranasinghe, Dinithi, 2021. "To pay or not pay: Board remuneration and insolvency risk in credit unions," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    9. Chronopoulos, Dimitris K. & Wilson, John O.S. & Yilmaz, Muhammed H., 2023. "Regulatory oversight and bank risk," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    10. Giuliana Birindelli & Paola Ferretti & Marco Savioli, 2016. "Basel 3: Does One Size Really Fit All Banks' Business Models?," Working Paper series 16-20, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    11. Vincent Bouvatier & Michael Brei & Xi Yang, 2014. "Bank Failures and the Source of Strength Doctrine," Working Papers hal-04141351, HAL.
    12. Leroy, Aurélien & Lucotte, Yannick, 2017. "Is there a competition-stability trade-off in European banking?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 199-215.
    13. Ozili, Peterson K, 2018. "Banking Stability Determinants in Africa," MPRA Paper 101825, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Muhammad Rahat Abbas & Barkat Ullah, 2023. "The Impact of Credit and Liquidity Risk on Bank Performance," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 12(4), pages 205-218.
    15. Matabaro Borauzima, Luc & Muller, Aline, 2023. "Bank risk-taking and competition in developing banking markets: Does efficiency level matter? Evidence from Africa," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    16. Hassan B. Ghassan & Stefano Fachin, 2016. "Time series analysis of financial stability of banks: Evidence from Saudi Arabia," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 31(1), pages 3-17, November.
    17. Abuzayed, Bana & Al-Fayoumi, Nedal & Molyneux, Phil, 2018. "Diversification and bank stability in the GCC," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 17-43.
    18. El Moussawi, Chawki & Mansour, Rana, 2022. "Competition, cost efficiency and stability of banks in the MENA region," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 143-170.
    19. Gulati, Rachita & Singh, Nirmal & Kumar, Sunil & Duppati, Geeta, 2023. "Bank stability in the Indian subcontinent region: Evolution and determinants," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    20. Jeon, Bang Nam & Wu, Ji & Chen, Limei & Chen, Minghua, 2020. "Diversification, efficiency and risk of banks: New consolidating evidence from emerging economies," School of Economics Working Paper Series 2020-10, LeBow College of Business, Drexel University.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Z-score; bank; insolvency risk; risk measure;
    All these keywords.

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-01937929. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.