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Bank opacity and risk-taking: Evidence from analysts’ forecasts

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  • Fosu, Samuel
  • Ntim, Collins G.
  • Coffie, William
  • Murinde, Victor

Abstract

We depart from existing literature by invoking analysts’ forecasts to measure banking system opacity and then investigate the impact of such opacity on bank risk-taking, using a large panel of US bank holding companies, over the 1995–2013 period. We uncover three new results. Firstly, we find that opacity increases insolvency risks among banks. Secondly, we establish that the relationship between opacity and bank risk-taking is accentuated by the degree of banking market competition. Thirdly, we show that the bank business model moderates the risk-taking incentives of opaque banks, albeit only marginally. Overall, these findings suggest that the analysts forecast measure of bank opacity is useful for understanding risk-taking by publicly-traded banks, with important implications for bank stability.

Suggested Citation

  • Fosu, Samuel & Ntim, Collins G. & Coffie, William & Murinde, Victor, 2017. "Bank opacity and risk-taking: Evidence from analysts’ forecasts," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 81-95.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finsta:v:33:y:2017:i:c:p:81-95
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jfs.2017.10.009
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bank opacity; Analysts’ forecasts; Bank stability; Banking market competition; Bank business models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C72 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Noncooperative Games
    • C78 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Bargaining Theory; Matching Theory
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior

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