IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/hal-04285763.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Time-varying Z-score measures for bank insolvency risk: Best practice

Author

Listed:
  • Vincent Bouvatier

    (ERUDITE - Equipe de Recherche sur l’Utilisation des Données Individuelles en lien avec la Théorie Economique - UPEC UP12 - Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12 - Université Gustave Eiffel)

  • Laetitia Lepetit

    (LAPE - Laboratoire d'Analyse et de Prospective Economique - GIO - Gouvernance des Institutions et des Organisations - UNILIM - Université de Limoges)

  • Pierre-Nicolas Rehault

    (LAPE - Laboratoire d'Analyse et de Prospective Economique - GIO - Gouvernance des Institutions et des Organisations - UNILIM - Université de Limoges)

  • Frank Strobel

    (University of Birmingham [Birmingham])

Abstract

We evaluate several alternative approaches to constructing time-varying Z-scores as bank insolvency risk measures. Focusing on US and European banks during the financial crisis of 2007–2008, we compare the different measures considered using a range of alternative testing procedures. For both US and European data, Z-scores computed with the exponentially weighted moments method are shown to be preferable to those computed with the more commonly used moving moments approach. Generally, or if only simple moving moments are used, Z-scores computed with current values of the capital-asset ratio are recommended.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Vincent Bouvatier & Laetitia Lepetit & Pierre-Nicolas Rehault & Frank Strobel, 2023. "Time-varying Z-score measures for bank insolvency risk: Best practice," Post-Print hal-04285763, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04285763
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2023.06.002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. J. A. John & N. R. Draper, 1980. "An Alternative Family of Transformations," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 29(2), pages 190-197, June.
    2. Lepetit, Laetitia & Strobel, Frank, 2015. "Bank insolvency risk and Z-score measures: A refinement," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 214-224.
    3. Delis, Manthos D. & Hasan, Iftekhar & Tsionas, Efthymios G., 2014. "The risk of financial intermediaries," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 1-12.
    4. Beltratti, Andrea & Paladino, Giovanna, 2016. "Basel II and regulatory arbitrage. Evidence from financial crises," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PB), pages 180-196.
    5. Fratianni, Michele & Marchionne, Francesco, 2013. "The banking bailout of the subprime crisis: Was the bang worth the buck?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 240-264.
    6. Lepetit, Laetitia & Strobel, Frank, 2013. "Bank insolvency risk and time-varying Z-score measures," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 73-87.
    7. Bertay, Ata Can & Demirgüç-Kunt, Asli & Huizinga, Harry, 2013. "Do we need big banks? Evidence on performance, strategy and market discipline," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 532-558.
    8. Gabriel Pino & Subhash C. Sharma, 2019. "On the Contagion Effect in the US Banking Sector," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(1), pages 261-280, February.
    9. Delis, Manthos D. & Hasan, Iftekhar & Tsionas, Efthymios G., 2014. "The risk of financial intermediaries," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 1-12.
    10. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2014_018 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. David J. Hand, 2012. "Assessing the Performance of Classification Methods," International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, vol. 80(3), pages 400-414, December.
    12. DeYoung, Robert & Torna, Gökhan, 2013. "Nontraditional banking activities and bank failures during the financial crisis," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 397-421.
    13. Hendrik Hakenes & Iftekhar Hasan & PhilIP Molyneux & Ru Xie, 2015. "Small Banks and Local Economic Development," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 19(2), pages 653-683.
    14. Tsionas, Euthimios G. & Mamatzakis, Emmanuel C., 2017. "Adjustment costs in the technical efficiency: An application to global banking," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 256(2), pages 640-649.
    15. Nguyen, Tu, 2013. "The disciplinary effect of subordinated debt on bank risk taking," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 117-141.
    16. Berger, Allen N. & Bouwman, Christa H.S. & Kick, Thomas & Schaeck, Klaus, 2016. "Bank liquidity creation following regulatory interventions and capital support," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 115-141.
    17. Lepetit, Laetitia & Strobel, Frank, 2013. "Bank insolvency risk and time-varying Z-score measures," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 73-87.
    18. Takaya Saito & Marc Rehmsmeier, 2015. "The Precision-Recall Plot Is More Informative than the ROC Plot When Evaluating Binary Classifiers on Imbalanced Datasets," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(3), pages 1-21, March.
    19. Beck, Thorsten & De Jonghe, Olivier & Schepens, Glenn, 2013. "Bank competition and stability: Cross-country heterogeneity," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 218-244.
    20. Vuong, Quang H, 1989. "Likelihood Ratio Tests for Model Selection and Non-nested Hypotheses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 307-333, March.
    21. Nyola, Annick Pamen & Sauviat, Alain & Tarazi, Amine & Danisman, Gamze Ozturk, 2021. "How organizational and geographic complexity influence performance: Evidence from European banks," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    22. Harris, Richard D. F. & Tzavalis, Elias, 1999. "Inference for unit roots in dynamic panels where the time dimension is fixed," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 201-226, August.
    23. Tjur, Tue, 2009. "Coefficients of Determination in Logistic Regression Models—A New Proposal: The Coefficient of Discrimination," The American Statistician, American Statistical Association, vol. 63(4), pages 366-372.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Wang Ying & Igor A. Mayburov & Yulia V. Leontyeva, 2024. "Assessing the Bankruptcy Risks of China's Emerging Port Industries: Modeling and Early Warning," Journal of Applied Economic Research, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Ural Federal University, vol. 23(3), pages 776-800.
    2. Laetitia Lepetit & Frank Strobel & Laurent Weill, 2024. "Do risky banks pay their employees more?," Working Papers of LaRGE Research Center 2024-09, Laboratoire de Recherche en Gestion et Economie (LaRGE), Université de Strasbourg.
    3. Mamonov, Mikhail & Parmeter, Christopher F. & Prokhorov, Artem B., 2024. "Bank cost efficiency and credit market structure under a volatile exchange rate," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Vincent Bouvatier & Laetitia Lepetit & Pierre-Nicolas Rehault & Frank Strobel, 2018. "Bank insolvency risk and Z-score measures: caveats and best practice," Working Papers hal-01937929, HAL.
    2. Lepetit, Laetitia & Strobel, Frank, 2015. "Bank insolvency risk and Z-score measures: A refinement," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 214-224.
    3. Hafeez, Bilal & Li, Xiping & Kabir, M. Humayun & Tripe, David, 2022. "Measuring bank risk: Forward-looking z-score," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    4. Nyola, Annick Pamen & Sauviat, Alain & Tarazi, Amine & Danisman, Gamze Ozturk, 2021. "How organizational and geographic complexity influence performance: Evidence from European banks," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    5. Schulte, Markus & Winkler, Adalbert, 2019. "Drivers of solvency risk – Are microfinance institutions different?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 403-426.
    6. Papanikolaou, Nikolaos I., 2018. "To be bailed out or to be left to fail? A dynamic competing risks hazard analysis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 61-85.
    7. Ngambou Djatche, Melchisédek Joslem, 2019. "Re-exploring the nexus between monetary policy and banks' risk-taking," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 294-307.
    8. Unda, Luisa A. & Ranasinghe, Dinithi, 2021. "To pay or not pay: Board remuneration and insolvency risk in credit unions," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    9. Paola Bongini & Małgorzata Iwanicz-Drozdowska & Paweł Smaga & Bartosz Witkowski, 2018. "In search of a measure of banking sector distress: empirical study of CESEE banking sectors," Risk Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 20(3), pages 242-257, August.
    10. IJtsma, Pieter & Spierdijk, Laura & Shaffer, Sherrill, 2017. "The concentration–stability controversy in banking: New evidence from the EU-25," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 273-284.
    11. Chronopoulos, Dimitris K. & Wilson, John O.S. & Yilmaz, Muhammed H., 2023. "Regulatory oversight and bank risk," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    12. Giuliana Birindelli & Paola Ferretti & Marco Savioli, 2016. "Basel 3: Does One Size Really Fit All Banks' Business Models?," Working Paper series 16-20, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    13. Guidi, Francesco, 2021. "Concentration, competition and financial stability in the South-East Europe banking context," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 639-670.
    14. Smaoui, Houcem & Mimouni, Karim & Miniaoui, Héla & Temimi, Akram, 2020. "Funding liquidity risk and banks' risk-taking: Evidence from Islamic and conventional banks," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    15. Naaman, Christine & Magnan, Michel & Hammami, Ahmad & Yao, Li, 2021. "Credit unions vs. commercial banks, who takes more risk?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    16. Hamid Mohtadi & Stefan Ruediger, 2014. "Volatility and Transparency of Financial Markets in the MENA Region," BIFEC Book of Abstracts & Proceedings, Research and Business Development Department, Borsa Istanbul, vol. 1(2), pages 173-195, March.
    17. Mehmet Balcilar & Riza Demirer, 2014. "The Effect of Global Shocks and Volatility on Herd Behavior in Borsa Istanbul," BIFEC Book of Abstracts & Proceedings, Research and Business Development Department, Borsa Istanbul, vol. 1(2), pages 142-172, March.
    18. Miguel Sarmiento, 2016. "Market Discipline and Liquidity Risk: Evidence from the Interbank Funds Market," IHEID Working Papers 14-2016, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    19. Ryu, Doojin & Yu, Jinyoung, 2021. "Nonlinear effect of subordinated debt changes on bank performance," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    20. Bongiovanni, Alessio & Reghezza, Alessio & Santamaria, Riccardo & Williams, Jonathan, 2021. "Do negative interest rates affect bank risk-taking?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 350-364.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04285763. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.