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Macro économie du court terme et politique climatique: Quelques leçons d'un modèle d'offre et demande globales

Author

Listed:
  • Jean-François Fagnart

    (UCL IRES - Institut de recherches économiques et sociales - UCL - Université Catholique de Louvain = Catholic University of Louvain)

  • Marc Germain

    (EQUIPPE - Economie Quantitative, Intégration, Politiques Publiques et Econométrie - Université de Lille, Sciences et Technologies - Université de Lille, Sciences Humaines et Sociales - PRES Université Lille Nord de France - Université de Lille, Droit et Santé)

Abstract

Nous introduisons le concept d'empreinte carbone dans un mod èle o ffre globale et demande globale avec formation imparfaitement concurrentielle des prix et salaires et en examinons les propriétés de l' équilibre en présence d'une politique climatique. Nous étudions deux instruments possibles de cette politique, une taxe carbone ou un quota de permis de pollution. Nous montrons qu' a court terme la politique climatique (ou son durcissement) constitue à la fois un choc d'off re globale négatif et un choc de demande globale positif. Elle provoque donc des effets inflationnistes mais a un impact ambigu sur l'activité économique, l'emploi et le chômage. Ce n'est que dans une économie avec des rigidités nominales de salaire suffisantes que la politique climatique stimulera -sous certaines conditions- l'activité à court terme. Dans tous les cas de figure, elle p èsera négativement sur les salaires réels. Nous étudions encore les interactions entre la politique climatique et les politiques macro économiques traditionnelles de demande (stimulus budgetaire ou moné taire) et d'off re (baisse des cotisations sociales). Les eff ets multiplicateurs de ces politiques sont influencés par l'existence d'une politique climatique et diff èrent selon l'instrument choisi (taxe ou permis). Nous montrons les conditions sous lesquelles une réforme combinant durcissement de la politique climatique et baisse des cotisations sociales sur le travail peut engendrer un double dividende (réduction de l'empreinte carbone, baisse du chômage), sans p pénaliser les salaires r réels des travailleurs. Une telle politique a toutefois des e ffets incertains sur le solde des fi nances publiques.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-François Fagnart & Marc Germain, 2012. "Macro économie du court terme et politique climatique: Quelques leçons d'un modèle d'offre et demande globales," Working Papers hal-00992050, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00992050
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.univ-lille.fr/hal-00992050
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    References listed on IDEAS

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