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Macroéconomie du court terme et politique climatique : Quelques leçons d'un modèle d'offre et demande globales

Author

Listed:
  • Jean-François FAGNART

    (Facultés universitaires Saint-Louis , CEREC et UCLouvain, IRES)

  • Marc GERMAIN

    (Université de Lille 3, EQUIPPE et UCLouvain, IRES)

Abstract

Nous introduisons le concept d'empreinte carbone dans un modèle offre globale et demande globale avec formation imparfaitement concurrentielle des prix et salaires et en examinons les propriétés de l'équilibre en présence d'une politique climatique. Nous étudions deux instruments possibles de cette politique, une taxe carbone ou un quota de permis de pollution. Nous montrons qu'à court terme la politique climatique (ou son durcissement) constitue à la fois un choc d'offre globale négatif et un choc de demande globale positif. Elle provoque donc des effets inflationnistes mais a un impact ambigu sur l'activité économique, l'emploi et le chômage. Ce n'est que dans une économie avec des rigidités nominales de salaire suffisantes que la politique climatique stimulera - sous certaines conditions - l'activité à court terme. Dans tous les cas de figure, elle pèsera négativement sur les salaires réels. Nous étudions encore les interactions entre la politique climatique et les politiques macroéconomiques traditionnelles de demande (stimulus budgétaire ou monétaire) et d'offre (baisse des cotisations sociales). Les effets multiplicateurs de ces politiques sont influencés par l'existence d'une politique climatique et diffèrent selon l'instrument choisi (taxe ou permis). Nous montrons les conditions sous lesquelles une réforme combinant durcissement de la politique climatique et baisse des cotisations sociales sur le travail peut engendrer un double dividende (réduction de l'empreinte carbone, baisse du chômage), sans pénaliser les salaires réels des travailleurs. Une telle politique a toutefois des effets incertains sur le solde des finances publiques.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-François FAGNART & Marc GERMAIN, 2012. "Macroéconomie du court terme et politique climatique : Quelques leçons d'un modèle d'offre et demande globales," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2012021, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    • Handle: RePEc:ctl:louvir:2012021
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    offre et demande globales; politique climatique; taxe carbone; permis de pollution; aggregate demand and supply; climate policy; carbon tax; pollution permits;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy

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