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Towards a "sophisticated" model of belief dynamics

Author

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  • Brian Hill

    (GREGH - Groupement de Recherche et d'Etudes en Gestion à HEC - HEC Paris - Ecole des Hautes Etudes Commerciales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

It is well-known that classical models of belief are not realistic representations of human doxastic capacity; equally, models of actions involving beliefs, such as decisions based on beliefs, or changes of beliefs, suffer from similar inaccuracies. In this paper, a general framework is presented which permits a more realistic modelling both of instantaneous states of belief, and of the operations involving them. This framework is motivated by the inadequacies of existing models, which it overcomes, whilst retaining technical rigour in so far as it relies on known, natural logical and mathematical notions. As an illustration of this framework, it will be applied to the particular case of belief revision. A model of belief revision shall be obtained which, rstly, recovers the Gärdenfors postulates in a well-speci ed, natural yet simple class of particular circumstances; secondly, can accommodate iterated revisions, recovering several proposed revision operators for iterated revision as special cases; and nally, offers an analysis of Rott's recent counterexample to several Gärdenfors postulates [23], elucidating in what sense it fails to be one of the special cases to which these postulates apply.

Suggested Citation

  • Brian Hill, 2006. "Towards a "sophisticated" model of belief dynamics," Working Papers hal-00582664, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-00582664
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tversky, Amos & Kahneman, Daniel, 1986. "Rational Choice and the Framing of Decisions," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(4), pages 251-278, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Brian Hill, 2009. "Living without state-independence of utilities," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 67(4), pages 405-432, October.
    2. Brian, HILL, 2007. "Dynamic Awareness," HEC Research Papers Series 881, HEC Paris.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Representations of belief; bounded rationality; logical omniscience; awareness; logical locality; belief dynamics; iterated revision; Gärdenfors postulates; rational choice theory; framing effect.; framing effect;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C44 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Operations Research; Statistical Decision Theory
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • D90 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - General

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