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What if supply-side policies are not enough ? The perverse interaction of flexibility and austerity

Author

Listed:
  • Giovanni Dosi

    (LEM - Laboratory of Economics and Management - SSSUP - Scuola Universitaria Superiore Sant'Anna = Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies [Pisa])

  • Marcelo Pereira

    (UNICAMP - Universidade Estadual de Campinas = University of Campinas)

  • Andrea Roventini

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Maria Enrica Virgillito

    (SSSUP - Scuola Universitaria Superiore Sant'Anna = Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies [Pisa])

Abstract

In this work we develop a set of labour market and fiscal policy experiments upon the labour and credit augmented "Schumpeter meeting Keynes" agent-based model. The labour market is declined under two institutional variants, the "Fordist" and the "Competitive" set-ups meant to capture the historical transition from the Fordist toward the post "Thatcher- Reagan" period. Inside these two regimes, we study the different effects of supply-side active labour market policies (ALMPs) vs. demand-management passive labour market ones (PLMPs). In particular, we analyse the effects of ALMPs aimed at promoting job search, and at providing training to unemployed people. Next, we compare the effects of these policies with unemployment benefits simply meant to sustain income and therefore aggregate demand. Considering the burden of unemployment benefits in terms of public budget, we link such provision with the objectives of the European Stability and Growth Pact. Our results show that (i) an appropriate level of skills is not enough to sustain growth when workers face adverse labour demand; (ii) supply-side policies are not able to reverse the perverse interaction between flexibility and austerity; (iii) PLMPs outperform ALMPs in reducing unemployment and workers' skills deterioration; and (iv) demand-management policies are better suited to mitigate inequality and to improve and sustain long-run growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Giovanni Dosi & Marcelo Pereira & Andrea Roventini & Maria Enrica Virgillito, 2018. "What if supply-side policies are not enough ? The perverse interaction of flexibility and austerity," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03458460, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-03458460
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    6. Bauermann, Tom & Roos, Michael W. M. & Schaff, Frederik, 2020. "POSA: Policy implementation sensitivity analysis," Ruhr Economic Papers 854, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
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    10. Mario Martinoli & Alessio Moneta & Gianluca Pallante, 2022. "Calibration and Validation of Macroeconomic Simulation Models by Statistical Causal Search," LEM Papers Series 2022/33, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    11. Nathalie Lazaric & Pasquale Tridico & Sebastiano Fadda, 2020. "Governing structural changes and sustainability through (new) institutions and organizations," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 30(5), pages 1267-1273, November.
    12. Giovanni Dosi & Andrea Roventini & Emmanuele Russo, 2020. "Public Policies And The Art Of Catching Up," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03242369, HAL.
    13. Silvano Cincotti & Wolfram Elsner & Nathalie Lazaric & Anastasia Nesvetailova & Engelbert Stockhammer, 2020. "Towards an evolutionary political economy. Editorial to the inaugural issue of the Review of Evolutionary Political Economy REPE," Review of Evolutionary Political Economy, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 1-12, May.
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    16. Sebastian Gechert, 2022. "Reconsidering macroeconomic policy prescriptions with meta-analysis [Statistical nonsignificance in empirical economics]," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 31(2), pages 576-590.

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    Keywords

    Industrial -relation Regimes; Flexibility; Active Labour Market Policies; Austerity; Agent-based models;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • H53 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Welfare Programs
    • J88 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Labor Standards - - - Public Policy

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