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Le retour au plein emploi ?

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Listed:
  • Valérie Chauvin
  • Gaël Dupont
  • Éric Heyer
  • Xavier Timbeau

Abstract

From 1997 to 2001, the French unemployment rate fell by around 4 points. We show it can reach 5 % in 2005 under favorable but realistic assumptions. Lower interest rates could imply a higher investment rate, which would however remain under its level in the 60s. This would allow a 1.1 point fall of the unemployment rate. The external trade could contribute positively to growth and account for a 0.9 point fall of the unemployment rate, despite a slowing down international trade. Working time reduction and a neutral Fiscal Policy are also important assumptions. More over, the NAIRU, estimated at 9 % at least, should fall. We draw alternative scenarios where full employment is reached later because of an less favorable international environment and where the unemployment rate remains over 7 %, because the NAIRU doesn?t diminish.

Suggested Citation

  • Valérie Chauvin & Gaël Dupont & Éric Heyer & Xavier Timbeau, 2001. "Le retour au plein emploi ?," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 79(4), pages 195-233.
    • Handle: RePEc:cai:reofsp:reof_079_0195
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