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Regulation Risk

Author

Listed:
  • Olivier Le Courtois

    (EM - EMLyon Business School)

  • Jacques Lévy-Véhel
  • Christian Walter

    (LAP - Laboratoire d’anthropologie politique – Approches interdisciplinaires et critiques des mondes contemporains, UMR 8177 - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

Market risk regulations adopted in response to recent crises aim to reduce financial risks. Nevertheless, a large number of practitioners feel that even, if these rules seem to succeed in lowering volatility, they appear to rigidify the financial structure of the economic system and tend to increase the probability of large jumps: prudential rules seem to produce an unexpected effect, the swap between volatility risk and jump risk. The attempt at reduction in volatility is accompanied by an increase in the intensity of jumps. The new regulations seem create a new risk. This article discusses this idea in three ways. First, we introduce a conventionalist framework to shed some light on this unexpected effect. Second, we precisely define volatility risk and the intensity of jumps to document the risk swap effect by analyzing a daily time series of the S&P 500. Third, we propose a model that allows one to appreciate a practical consequence of this swap on the risk measures. We conclude by challenging the main objective of regulation: we argue that concentrating on reducing volatility can create a new type of risk that increases the potential losses, which we term regulation risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Olivier Le Courtois & Jacques Lévy-Véhel & Christian Walter, 2020. "Regulation Risk," Post-Print halshs-04500907, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-04500907
    DOI: 10.1080/10920277.2019.1679189
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-04500907v1
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Olivier Le Courtois & Christian Walter, 2014. "Extreme Financial Risks and Asset Allocation," World Scientific Books, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., number p907, September.
    2. Peter Carr & Liuren Wu, 2003. "The Finite Moment Log Stable Process and Option Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(2), pages 753-777, April.
    3. Danielsson, Jon, 2002. "The emperor has no clothes: Limits to risk modelling," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1273-1296, July.
    4. Fabian Muniesa, 2014. "The Provoked Economy: Economic Reality and the Performative Turn," Post-Print halshs-00989576, HAL.
    5. Peter Carr & Helyette Geman, 2002. "The Fine Structure of Asset Returns: An Empirical Investigation," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75(2), pages 305-332, April.
    6. repec:bla:jfinan:v:58:y:2003:i:2:p:753-778 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Donald MacKenzie, 2006. "An Engine, Not a Camera: How Financial Models Shape Markets," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262134608, December.
    8. Benoit Mandelbrot, 2015. "The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Anastasios G Malliaris & William T Ziemba (ed.), THE WORLD SCIENTIFIC HANDBOOK OF FUTURES MARKETS, chapter 3, pages 39-78, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
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