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Has China replaced colonial trade?

Author

Listed:
  • Laurent Didier

    (CEMOI - Centre d'Économie et de Management de l'Océan Indien - UR - Université de La Réunion)

  • Pamina Koenig

    (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CREAM - Centre de Recherche en Economie Appliquée à la Mondialisation - UNIROUEN - Université de Rouen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université - IRIHS - Institut de Recherche Interdisciplinaire Homme et Société - UNIROUEN - Université de Rouen Normandie - NU - Normandie Université)

Abstract

China is often suspected of taking over the extraordinary trade relationships that former colonies had within colonial empires. Besides preferential bilateral relationships built after independence, the two other potential determinants of the increase in trade with China are the improvement in China's export capacity and the natural redirection caused by independence. We investigate and quantify the three reasons that explain the level of former colonies' trade flows with China. Using structural gravity equations, we show that methodological issues can be largely responsible for displaying and estimating abnormally high trade levels between former colonies and China. Increased trade between these pairs of countries is the result of unilateral factors rather than more intense bilateral preferences. We then measure the reorientation of trade flows from former colonies' metropoles towards China and show that independence has produced the expected redistribution: trade flows with China would be 15% lower, had former colonies not become independent.

Suggested Citation

  • Laurent Didier & Pamina Koenig, 2019. "Has China replaced colonial trade?," Post-Print halshs-02084348, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-02084348
    DOI: 10.1007/s10290-018-0334-4
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    2. Alejandro Ayuso-Díaz & Antonio Tena-Junguito, 2024. "US and Japan rivalry in Philippine interwar import manufactures market. Power politics, trade cost and competitiveness," Working Papers 0265, European Historical Economics Society (EHES).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bilateral effects; China Multilateral resistance; Colonial trade; Gravity equation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F54 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - Colonialism; Imperialism; Postcolonialism

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