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Shanghai's Trade, China's Growth: Continuity, Recovery, and Change since the Opium War

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  • Wolfgang Keller
  • Ben Li
  • Carol H. Shiue

Abstract

In this paper, we provide aggregate trends in China's trade performance from the 1840s to the present. Based on historical benchmarks, we argue that China's recent gains are not exclusively due to the reforms since 1978. Rather, foreign economic activity can be understood by developments that were set in motion in the 19th century. We turn our focus to Shanghai, currently the world's largest port. Shanghai began direct trade relations with western nations starting in 1843. By 1853, Shanghai already accounted for more than half of China's foreign trade. In tracking the levels and growth rates of the city's net and gross imports and exports, foreign direct investment, and foreign residents over more than a century, we find that Shanghai's level of bilateral trade today with the United States, the United Kingdom, or Japan, for example, are by no means high given Shanghai's 19th century experience. This paper argues that a regional approach that embeds national trading destinations within an international trading system provides a meaningful approach to understanding the history of China's trade.

Suggested Citation

  • Wolfgang Keller & Ben Li & Carol H. Shiue, 2012. "Shanghai's Trade, China's Growth: Continuity, Recovery, and Change since the Opium War," NBER Working Papers 17754, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17754
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. James R. MARKUSEN, 2021. "Multinationals, Multi-Plant Economies, And The Gains From Trade," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: BROADENING TRADE THEORY Incorporating Market Realities into Traditional Models, chapter 1, pages 3-24, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
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    Cited by:

    1. Yang, Junping & Zhang, Mengjie & Ballester-Miquel, José Carlos & Ribeiro-Navarrete, Samuel, 2022. "Exploring what drives entrepreneurs: Intergenerational differences between entrepreneurs born in the 1980s and 1990s," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    2. Lisha Mengge, 2024. "Foreign trade and economic performance in China, 1860–1911," French Stata Users' Group Meetings 2024 14, Stata Users Group.
    3. Laurent Didier & Pamina Koenig, 2019. "Has China replaced colonial trade?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 155(2), pages 199-226, May.
    4. Laura Alfaro & Cathy Ge Bao & Maggie X. Chen & Junjie Hong & Claudia Steinwender, 2022. "Omnia Juncta in Uno: Foreign Powers and Trademark Protection in Shanghai’s Concession Era," NBER Working Papers 29721, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Rafael, Dobado-González & Alfredo, García-Hiernaux & David, Guerrero-Burbano, 2013. "West versus East: Early Globalization and the Great Divergence," MPRA Paper 48773, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Loren Brandt & Debin Ma & Thomas G. Rawski, 2014. "From Divergence to Convergence: Reevaluating the History behind China's Economic Boom," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(1), pages 45-123, March.
    7. Keller, Wolfgang & Andres Santiago, Javier & Shiue, Carol H., 2017. "China's domestic trade during the Treaty-Port Era," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 26-43.
    8. Loïc Charles & Guillaume Daudin, 2015. "Eighteenth-Century International Trade Statistics. Sources and Methods," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(4), pages 7-36.
    9. Cheng Yang, 2022. "A new estimate of Chinese male occupational structure during 1734–1898 by sector, sub‐sector pattern, and region," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 75(4), pages 1270-1313, November.
    10. Ahmed, Khalid & Bhattacharya, Mita & Qazi, Ahmer Qasim & Long, Wei, 2016. "Energy consumption in China and underlying factors in a changing landscape: Empirical evidence since the reform period," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 224-234.
    11. Bo, Shiyu & Chen, Ting & Liu, Cong, 2022. "Trade shocks, industrial growth, and electrification in early 20th-century China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 732-749.
    12. MA, Ye & JONG, Herman de, 2016. "Unfolding the Turbulent Century: A Reconstruction of China's Economic Development, 1840-1912," Discussion paper series HIAS-E-29, Hitotsubashi Institute for Advanced Study, Hitotsubashi University.
    13. Long, Cheryl & Murrell, Peter & Yang, Li, 2019. "Memories of colonial law: The inheritance of human capital and the location of joint ventures in early-reform China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • F23 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - Multinational Firms; International Business
    • N81 - Economic History - - Micro-Business History - - - U.S.; Canada: Pre-1913
    • N83 - Economic History - - Micro-Business History - - - Europe: Pre-1913
    • N85 - Economic History - - Micro-Business History - - - Asia including Middle East
    • N95 - Economic History - - Regional and Urban History - - - Asia including Middle East
    • O43 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Institutions and Growth

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