IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/foi/wpaper/2018_02.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Chinese Export Displacement Effect Revisited

Author

Listed:
  • Christian Elleby

    (Department of Food and Resource Economics, University of Copenhagen)

  • Wusheng Yu

    (Department of Food and Resource Economics, University of Copenhagen)

  • Qian Yu

    (Department of Food and Resource Economics, University of Copenhagen)

Abstract

China’s global export share has increased dramatically over the past decades. This development has prompted an empirical literature on whether Chinese exports displace those originated from elsewhere in various destination markets. In this paper we focus on the growth of China’s exports to the East African Community (EAC) countries and show how it has affected exports from the European Union (EU) to the EAC. Our main contribution to the literature on the displacement effect of Chinese exports is a set of total and relative displacement estimates based on different specifications of the gravity model where we control for country-year fixed effects so as to avoid the “gold medal mistake” of not accounting for time varying “multilateral resistance”. Our findings do not support the hypothesis that Chinese exports have displaced exports from other countries in general. Nor do they support the hypothesis that Chinese exports have displaced exports from EU countries to the EAC countries or elsewhere. There has been no displacement in the sense that, although exporters from the EU and elsewhere have lost market share to China, the value of their exports to the EAC and elsewhere have still increased.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Elleby & Wusheng Yu & Qian Yu, 2018. "The Chinese Export Displacement Effect Revisited," IFRO Working Paper 2018/02, University of Copenhagen, Department of Food and Resource Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:foi:wpaper:2018_02
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://okonomi.foi.dk/workingpapers/WPpdf/WP2018/IFRO_WP_2018_02.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Disdier, Anne-Celia & Fontagne, Lionel & Mimouni, Mondher, 2008. "AJAE Appendix: The Impact of Regulations on Agricultural Trade: Evidence from the SPS and TBT Agreements," American Journal of Agricultural Economics APPENDICES, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 90(2), pages 1-7.
    2. Head, Keith & Mayer, Thierry, 2014. "Gravity Equations: Workhorse,Toolkit, and Cookbook," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 131-195, Elsevier.
    3. Anne-Célia Disdier & Silvio Tai & Lionel Fontagné & Thierry Mayer, 2010. "Bilateral trade of cultural goods," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 145(4), pages 575-595, January.
    4. Anne-Célia Disdier & Lionel Fontagné & Olivier Cadot, 2015. "North-South Standards Harmonization and International Trade," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 29(2), pages 327-352.
    5. Richard Baldwin & Daria Taglioni, 2006. "Gravity for Dummies and Dummies for Gravity Equations," NBER Working Papers 12516, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Dutt, Pushan & Mihov, Ilian & Van Zandt, Timothy, 2013. "The effect of WTO on the extensive and the intensive margins of trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 204-219.
    7. Prema‐chandra Athukorala, 2009. "The Rise of China and East Asian Export Performance: Is the Crowding‐Out Fear Warranted?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(2), pages 234-266, February.
    8. Alemayehu Geda & Atnafu Meskel, 2008. "China and India's Growth Surge: Is it a curse or blessing for Africa? The Case of Manufactured Exports," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 20(2), pages 247-272.
    9. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/c8dmi8nm4pdjkuc9g8o0n71o2 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Andrew K. Rose, 2001. "Currency unions and trade: the effect is large," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 16(33), pages 449-461.
    11. Head, Keith & Mayer, Thierry & Ries, John, 2010. "The erosion of colonial trade linkages after independence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 1-14, May.
    12. Subramanian, Arvind & Wei, Shang-Jin, 2007. "The WTO promotes trade, strongly but unevenly," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 151-175, May.
    13. Isabelle Bensidoun & Françoise Lemoine & Deniz Ünal, 2009. "The integration of China and India into the world economy: a comparison," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 6(1), pages 131-155, June.
    14. Cong S. Pham & Xuan Nguyen & Pasquale Sgro & Xueli Tang, 2017. "Has China Displaced its Competitors in High†tech Trade?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(8), pages 1569-1596, August.
    15. Gaulier, Guillaume & Zignago, Soledad, 2004. "Notes on BACI (analytical database of international trade). 1989-2002 version," MPRA Paper 32401, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. He, Yong, 2013. "Does China's trade expansion help African development? — an empirical estimation," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 28-38.
    17. Vandenbussche, Hylke & Zanardi, Maurizio, 2010. "The chilling trade effects of antidumping proliferation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(6), pages 760-777, August.
    18. Yong He, 2013. "Does China's trade expansion help African development? -- an empirical estimation," Post-Print halshs-00839540, HAL.
    19. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/c8dmi8nm4pdjkuc9g8o0n71o2 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. James E. Anderson, 2011. "The Gravity Model," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 133-160, September.
    21. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March.
    22. Barry Eichengreen & Yeongseop Rhee & Hui Tong, 2007. "China and the Exports of Other Asian Countries," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 143(2), pages 201-226, July.
    23. Giorgia Giovannetti & Marco Sanfilippo, 2009. "Do Chinese Exports Crowd-out African Goods? An Econometric Analysis by Country and Sector," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 21(4), pages 506-530, September.
    24. Baier, Scott L. & Bergstrand, Jeffrey H., 2007. "Do free trade agreements actually increase members' international trade?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 72-95, March.
    25. Jason H. Grant & Kathryn A. Boys, 2012. "Agricultural Trade and the GATT/WTO: Does Membership Make a Difference?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 94(1), pages 1-24.
    26. Peter Egger & Mario Larch & Kevin E. Staub & Rainer Winkelmann, 2011. "The Trade Effects of Endogenous Preferential Trade Agreements," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 113-143, August.
    27. Andrew K. Rose, 2004. "Do We Really Know That the WTO Increases Trade?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 98-114, March.
    28. Antoine Berthou & Hélène Ehrhart, 2017. "Trade networks and colonial trade spillovers," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(4), pages 891-923, September.
    29. Yeats, Alexander J, 1990. "On the Accuracy of Economic Observations: Do Sub-Saharan Trade Statistics Mean Anything?," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 4(2), pages 135-156, May.
    30. Anne-Célia Disdier & Silvio Tai & Lionel Fontagné & Thierry Mayer, 2010. "Bilateral trade of cultural goods," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 145(4), pages 575-595, January.
    31. David Greenaway & Aruneema Mahabir & Chris Milner, 2010. "Has China Displaced Other Asian Countries’ Exports?," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: David Greenaway & Chris Milner & Shujie Yao (ed.), China and the World Economy, chapter 4, pages 60-90, Palgrave Macmillan.
    32. Baier, Scott L. & Bergstrand, Jeffrey H., 2009. "Estimating the effects of free trade agreements on international trade flows using matching econometrics," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 63-76, February.
    33. Baier, Scott L. & Bergstrand, Jeffrey H. & Feng, Michael, 2014. "Economic integration agreements and the margins of international trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 339-350.
    34. Robert Barro & Silvana Tenreyro, 2007. "Economic Effects Of Currency Unions," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 45(1), pages 1-23, January.
    35. Robert C. Feenstra, 2002. "Border Effects and the Gravity Equation: Consistent Methods for Estimation," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 49(5), pages 491-506, November.
    36. Andrew K. Rose, 2000. "One money, one market: the effect of common currencies on trade," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 15(30), pages 08-45.
    37. Edmund Amann & Barry Lau & Frederick Nixson, 2009. "Did China Hurt the Textiles and Clothing Exports of Other Asian Economies, 1990-2005?," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(4), pages 333-362.
    38. Dai, Mian & Yotov, Yoto V. & Zylkin, Thomas, 2014. "On the trade-diversion effects of free trade agreements," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 122(2), pages 321-325.
    39. Giorgia Giovannetti & Marco Sanfilippo & Margherita Velucchi, 2011. "The “China effect” on EU Exports to OECD markets – A focus on Italy," Working Papers - Economics wp2011_17.rdf, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Scienze per l'Economia e l'Impresa.
    40. repec:hal:pseose:hal-00975529 is not listed on IDEAS
    41. Giorgio Gomel & Daniela Marconi & Ignazio Musu & Beniamino Quintieri (ed.), 2013. "The Chinese Economy," Springer Books, Springer, edition 127, number 978-3-642-28638-4, July.
    42. Edwards, Lawrence & Jenkins, Rhys, 2014. "The margins of export competition: A new approach to evaluating the impact of China on South African exports to Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(S1), pages 132-150.
    43. Andrew K. Rose & Eric van Wincoop, 2001. "National Money as a Barrier to International Trade: The Real Case for Currency Union," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 386-390, May.
    44. Gaure, Simen, 2013. "OLS with multiple high dimensional category variables," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 8-18.
    45. Anne-Célia Disdier & Lionel Fontagné & Olivier Cadot, 2015. "North-South Standards Harmonization and International Trade," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 29(2), pages 327-352.
    46. Anderson, James E, 1979. "A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(1), pages 106-116, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Christian Elleby & Wusheng Yu & Qian Yu, 2023. "The Chinese Export Displacement Effect Revisited: The Case of the East African Community," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 31(6), pages 4-32, November.
    2. Yoke Fong Kong & Richard Kneller, 2016. "Measuring the Impact of China's Export Growth on its Asian Neighbours," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(2), pages 195-220, February.
    3. Salvador Gil-Pareja & Rafael Llorca-Vivero & José Antonio Martínez-Serrano, 2016. "A Re-Examination of the Effect of GATT/WTO on Trade," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 561-584, July.
    4. Katharina Längle, 2020. "Upgrading of Exports: Does the Integration into Trade Agreements Pave the Way to Product Upgrading?," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 20006, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    5. Katharina Längle, 2020. "Upgrading of Exports: Does the Integration into Trade Agreements Pave the Way to Product Upgrading?," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-02899973, HAL.
    6. Katharina Längle, 2020. "Upgrading of Exports: Does the Integration into Trade Agreements Pave the Way to Product Upgrading?," Post-Print halshs-02899973, HAL.
    7. (ed.), 0. "Research Handbook on Economic Diplomacy," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 16053.
    8. Katharina Längle, 2020. "Upgrading of Exports: Does the Integration into Trade Agreements Pave the Way to Product Upgrading?," Working Papers hal-02548689, HAL.
    9. Dutt, Pushan, 2020. "The WTO is not passé," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    10. Katharina Längle, 2020. "Upgrading of Exports: Does the Integration into Trade Agreements Pave the Way to Product Upgrading?," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-02548689, HAL.
    11. Scott L. Baier & Amanda Kerr & Yoto V. Yotov, 2018. "Gravity, distance, and international trade," Chapters, in: Bruce A. Blonigen & Wesley W. Wilson (ed.), Handbook of International Trade and Transportation, chapter 2, pages 15-78, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    12. Yoto V. Yotov, 2022. "On the role of domestic trade flows for estimating the gravity model of trade," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 40(3), pages 526-540, July.
    13. Head, Keith & Mayer, Thierry, 2014. "Gravity Equations: Workhorse,Toolkit, and Cookbook," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 131-195, Elsevier.
    14. Emanuel Ornelas & Marcos Ritel, 2020. "The not‐so‐generalised effects of the Generalized System of Preferences," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(7), pages 1809-1840, July.
    15. Jayjit Roy, 2014. "On the robustness of the trade-inducing effects of trade agreements and currency unions," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 253-304, August.
    16. Melitz, Jacques & Toubal, Farid, 2014. "Native language, spoken language, translation and trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 351-363.
    17. Mario Larch & Jeff Luckstead & Yoto V. Yotov, 2024. "Economic sanctions and agricultural trade," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 106(4), pages 1477-1517, August.
    18. Fabien Candau & Geoffroy Guepie & Reine Kouakou, 2018. "In Gravity no Veritas: Dubious Trade Elasticiy and Weak Effects of Regional Trade Agreements in Africa," Working Papers hal-02625930, HAL.
    19. de Sousa, José & Mayer, Thierry & Zignago, Soledad, 2012. "Market access in global and regional trade," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1037-1052.
    20. Gabriele Spilker & Thomas Bernauer & In Song Kim & Helen Milner & Iain Osgood & Dustin Tingley, 2018. "Trade at the margin: Estimating the economic implications of preferential trade agreements," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 189-242, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    habits; trade; gravity equation; export displacement; China; East African Community; European Union;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:foi:wpaper:2018_02. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Geir Tveit (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/foikudk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.