IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/halshs-00757079.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

2°C or not 2°C?

Author

Listed:
  • Céline Guivarch

    (CIRED - centre international de recherche sur l'environnement et le développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

Political attention has increasingly focused on limiting warming to 2°C. However, there is no consensus on both questions "Is the 2°C target achievable?" and "What should be done with this target that becomes increasingly difficult to achieve?". This paper aims at disentangling the points of deep uncertainty underlying this absence on consensus. It first gives simple visualizations of the challenge posed by the 2°C target and shows how key assumptions (on the points of deep uncertainty) influence the answer to the target achievability question. It then proposes an "uncertainties and decisions tree", linking different beliefs on climate change, the achievability of different policies, and current international policy dynamics to various options to move forward on climate change.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Céline Guivarch, 2012. "2°C or not 2°C?," Post-Print halshs-00757079, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00757079
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
    1. Check below whether another version of this item is available online.
    2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
    3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Philippe Ambrosi & Jean-Charles Hourcade & Stéphane Hallegatte & Franck Lecocq & Patrice Dumas & Minh Ha Duong, 2009. "Optimal Control Models and Elicitation of Attitudes towards Climate Damages," International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, in: Jerzy A. Filar & Alain Haurie (ed.), Uncertainty and Environmental Decision Making, chapter 0, pages 177-209, Springer.
    2. Detlef Vuuren & Elke Stehfest & Michel Elzen & Tom Kram & Jasper Vliet & Sebastiaan Deetman & Morna Isaac & Kees Klein Goldewijk & Andries Hof & Angelica Mendoza Beltran & Rineke Oostenrijk & Bas Ruij, 2011. "RCP2.6: exploring the possibility to keep global mean temperature increase below 2°C," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 95-116, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Li, Jun & Hamdi-Cherif, Meriem & Cassen, Christophe, 2017. "Aligning domestic policies with international coordination in a post-Paris global climate regime: A case for China," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 258-274.
    2. Audoly, Richard & Vogt-Schilb, Adrien & Guivarch, Céline & Pfeiffer, Alexander, 2018. "Pathways toward zero-carbon electricity required for climate stabilization," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 225(C), pages 884-901.
    3. Hallegatte, Stephane & Fay, Marianne & Vogt-Schilb, Adrien, 2013. "Green industrial policies : when and how," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6677, The World Bank.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Guivarch, Celine & Hallegatte, Stephane, 2011. "2C or Not 2C?," Climate Change and Sustainable Development 120019, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    2. Cai, Yiyong & Newth, David & Finnigan, John & Gunasekera, Don, 2015. "A hybrid energy-economy model for global integrated assessment of climate change, carbon mitigation and energy transformation," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 381-395.
    3. Renaud Crassous & Jean Charles Hourcade & Olivier Sassi, 2006. "Endogenous structural change and climate targets," Post-Print halshs-00009335, HAL.
    4. Fujimori, Shinichiro & Dai, Hancheng & Masui, Toshihiko & Matsuoka, Yuzuru, 2016. "Global energy model hindcasting," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 293-301.
    5. Yan Lu & Haikun Wang & Qin’geng Wang & Yanyan Zhang & Yiyong Yu & Yu Qian, 2017. "Global anthropogenic heat emissions from energy consumption, 1965–2100," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 145(3), pages 459-468, December.
    6. Valentina Bosetti & Laurent Gilotte, 2005. "Carbon Capture and Sequestration: How Much Does this Uncertain Option Affect Near-Term Policy Choices?," Working Papers 2005.86, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    7. Vladimir F. Krapivin & Costas A. Varotsos & Vladimir Yu. Soldatov, 2017. "The Earth’s Population Can Reach 14 Billion in the 23rd Century without Significant Adverse Effects on Survivability," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-19, August.
    8. David Bryngelsson & Fredrik Hedenus & Daniel J. A. Johansson & Christian Azar & Stefan Wirsenius, 2017. "How Do Dietary Choices Influence the Energy-System Cost of Stabilizing the Climate?," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-13, February.
    9. Amouzou, Kokou Adambounou & Naab, Jesse B. & Lamers, John P.A. & Borgemeister, Christian & Becker, Mathias & Vlek, Paul L.G., 2018. "CROPGRO-Cotton model for determining climate change impacts on yield, water- and N- use efficiencies of cotton in the Dry Savanna of West Africa," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 85-96.
    10. Hamdi-Cherif, Meriem & Waisman, Henri & Guivarch, Céline & Hourcade, Jean-Charles, 2012. "Mitigation costs in second-best economies: time profile of emission reductions and sequencing of accompanying measures," Conference papers 332206, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    11. Alice Favero & Robert Mendelsohn, 2013. "Evaluating the Global Role of Woody Biomass as a Mitigation Strategy," Working Papers 2013.37, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    12. Kokou Amega & Yendoubé Laré & Ramchandra Bhandari & Yacouba Moumouni & Aklesso Y. G. Egbendewe & Windmanagda Sawadogo & Saidou Madougou, 2022. "Solar Energy Powered Decentralized Smart-Grid for Sustainable Energy Supply in Low-Income Countries: Analysis Considering Climate Change Influences in Togo," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(24), pages 1-24, December.
    13. Tol, Richard S.J., 2006. "The Polluter Pays Principle and Cost-Benefit Analysis of Climate Change: An Application of Fund," Climate Change Modelling and Policy Working Papers 12058, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    14. Lecocq, Franck & Crassous, Renaud, 2003. "International climate regime beyond 2012 - are quota allocation rules robust to uncertainty?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3000, The World Bank.
    15. Renaud Crassous, Jean-Charles Hourcade, Olivier Sassi, 2006. "Endogenous Structural Change and Climate Targets Modeling Experiments with Imaclim-R," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 259-276.
    16. Jean-Charles Hourcade & Philippe Ambrosi & Patrice Dumas, 2009. "Beyond the Stern Review: Lessons from a risky venture at the limits of the cost–benefit analysis," Post-Print hal-00716769, HAL.
    17. Marschinski, Robert & Lecocq, Franck, 2006. "Do intensity targets control uncertainty better than quotas ? Conditions, calibrations, and caveats," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4033, The World Bank.
    18. Bing-Chen Jhong & Ching-Pin Tung, 2018. "Evaluating Future Joint Probability of Precipitation Extremes with a Copula-Based Assessing Approach in Climate Change," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(13), pages 4253-4274, October.
    19. Franck Lecocq & Jean-Charles Hourcade, 2016. "Unspoken Ethical Issues in the Climate Affair: Insights from a Theoretical Analysis of Negotiation Mandates," Studies in Economic Theory, in: Graciela Chichilnisky & Armon Rezai (ed.), The Economics of the Global Environment, pages 311-340, Springer.
    20. Hallegatte, Stephane & Heal, Geoffrey & Fay, Marianne & Treguer, David, 2011. "From growth to green growth -- a framework," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5872, The World Bank.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00757079. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.