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The U.S. Intertemporal Budget Constraint: Restoring Equilibrium Through Increased Revenues or Decreased Spending?

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  • William J. Crowder

    (University of Texas at Arlington)

Abstract

This paper tests the stability of the U.S. federal intertemporal budget constraint over the postwar period. The implied equilibrium budget path is estimated and used to determine which component of the budget has greater responsibility for the recent intertemporal violations.

Suggested Citation

  • William J. Crowder, 1997. "The U.S. Intertemporal Budget Constraint: Restoring Equilibrium Through Increased Revenues or Decreased Spending?," Macroeconomics 9702002, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 25 Feb 1997.
    • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpma:9702002
    Note: Type of Document - PostScript; prepared on IBM-PC; to print on HPLaserjet postscript; pages: 34; figures: included in the paper
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Henning Bohn, "undated". "Budget Balance Through Revenue or Spending Adjustments ? Some Historical Evidence for the United States (Reprint 013)," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 03-91, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    2. Kremers, Jeroen J. M., 1988. "Long-run limits on the US Federal debt," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 259-262.
    3. Haug, Alfred A, 1995. "Has Federal Budget Deficit Policy Changed in Recent Years?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 33(1), pages 104-118, January.
    4. Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-472, August.
    5. Trehan, Bharat & Walsh, Carl E., 1988. "Common trends, the government's budget constraint, and revenue smoothing," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 425-444.
    6. Hamilton, James D & Flavin, Marjorie A, 1986. "On the Limitations of Government Borrowing: A Framework for EmpiricalTesting," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(4), pages 808-819, September.
    7. Hakkio, Craig S & Rush, Mark, 1991. "Is the Budget Deficit "Too Large?"," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 29(3), pages 429-445, July.
    8. Dolado, Juan J., 1992. "A note on weak exogeneity in VAR cointegrated models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 139-143, February.
    9. Quintos, Carmela E, 1995. "Sustainability of the Deficit Process with Structural Shifts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(4), pages 409-417, October.
    10. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Zeineb Gouasmi & Riadh El Ferktaji, 2022. "Detecting and date-stamping unsustainability: The case of Tunisian Budget Deficit," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 42(4), pages 2065-2078.
    2. Christophe Ehrhart & Matthieu Llorca, 2008. "The sustainability of fiscal policy: evidence from a panel of six South-Mediterranean countries," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(10), pages 797-803.
    3. Cunado, J. & Gil-Alana, L. A. & Perez de Gracia, F., 2004. "Is the US fiscal deficit sustainable?: A fractionally integrated approach," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 501-526.
    4. Huseyin Kalyoncu, 2005. "Fiscal policy sustainability: test of intertemporal borrowing constraints," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(15), pages 957-962.
    5. António Afonso, 2000. "Fiscal policy sustainability: some unpleasant European evidence," Working Papers Department of Economics 2000/12, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    6. Andrea Cipollini & Bassam Fattouh & Kostas Mouratidis, 2009. "Fiscal Readjustments In The United States: A Nonlinear Time‐Series Analysis," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 47(1), pages 34-54, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Budget Deficit; Intertemporal; Cointegration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables

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