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An Examination of the Sustainability of Indian Fiscal Policy

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  • Cashin, P.
  • Olekalns, N.

Abstract

India has a long history of running fiscal deficits. This paper asks whether the magnitude of these deficits has involved a violation of India's intertemporal budget constraint. Times series evidence on Central government tax revenues and expenditures are examined for cointegration using procedures that are robust in the presence of structural change. We find no evidence of cointegration, a result that implies a violation of intertemporal solvency and that current fiscal policies are unlikely to be sustainable in the long-run.

Suggested Citation

  • Cashin, P. & Olekalns, N., 2000. "An Examination of the Sustainability of Indian Fiscal Policy," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 748, The University of Melbourne.
    • Handle: RePEc:mlb:wpaper:748
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. A. Bhatt Hakhu & C. Sardoni, 2021. "Public expenditure and growth: the Indian case," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 18(1), pages 77-101, April.
    2. Balbir Kaur & Atri Mukherjee & Anand Prakash Ekka, 2018. "Debt sustainability of states in India: An assessment," Indian Economic Review, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 93-129, December.
    3. Kannan, R & Singh, Bhupal, 2007. "Debt-deficit dynamics in India and macroeconomic effects: A structural approach," MPRA Paper 16480, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2007.
    4. Christophe Ehrhart & Matthieu Llorca, 2008. "The sustainability of fiscal policy: evidence from a panel of six South-Mediterranean countries," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(10), pages 797-803.
    5. Shiv Shankar & Pushpa Trivedi, 2023. "Assessing India’s fiscal sustainability considering debt–deficit and financing dynamics," Indian Economic Review, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 41-70, June.
    6. Hakhu, Antra Bhatt, 2015. "Productive Public Expenditure and Debt Dynamics: An Error Correction Representation using Indian Data," Working Papers 15/149, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
    7. Owolabi A. Usman & Dauda Gbolagade Adebisi, 2017. "A Structural Break Analysis of Fiscal Deficit Process in Nigeria," The Review of Black Political Economy, Springer;National Economic Association, vol. 44(3), pages 341-352, December.
    8. Goyal, Rajan & Khundrakpam, J. K. & Ray, Partha, 2004. "Is India's public finance unsustainable? Or, are the claims exaggerated?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 401-420, April.
    9. Das, Panchanan, 2016. "Debt Dynamics, Fiscal Deficit, and Stability in Government Borrowing in India: A Dynamic Panel Analysis," ADBI Working Papers 557, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    10. Mendes, Cassandro, 2015. "Fiscal sustainability: a note for Cabo Verde," MPRA Paper 65552, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Narayana, M.R., 2014. "Impact of population ageing on sustainability of India’s current fiscal policies: A Generational Accounting approach," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 3(C), pages 71-83.
    12. Rath, Deba Prasad & Misra, Biswa Swarup, 2006. "Examining Sustainability of Federal Finances in India: An Application of Non-stationary Panel Methods," MPRA Paper 21894, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Shruti SHASTRI & A.K. GIRI & Geetilaxmi MOHAPATRA, 2017. "An empirical assessment of fiscal sustainability for selected South Asian economies," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(1(610), S), pages 163-178, Spring.
    14. Loganathan, Nanthakumar & Mori Kogid & Suriyani Muhamad & Nor Haslina Mohamad Akhir, 2011. "Fiscal Adjustment And Dynamic Economics Performance: The Case Of Malaysia," Journal of Global Business and Economics, Global Research Agency, vol. 3(1), pages 1-10, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    FISCAL POLICY ; DEBT ; ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • O23 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Development

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