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Les échelles de temps sur les marchés financiers

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  • Christian Walter

    (LAP - Laboratoire d’anthropologie politique – Approches interdisciplinaires et critiques des mondes contemporains, UMR 8177 - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

La modélisation financière moderne instrumente massivement des lois d'échelle pour la formalisation des fluctuations des marchés, à travers l'usage des processus aléatoires dans les équations de comportement des cours boursiers. D'abord implicites, présentes dans le mouvement brownien mais non perçues en tant que telles, les lois d'échelle sont réapparues explicitement comme enjeu de la modélisation depuis que les autorités de tutelle des marchés financiers ont attiré l'attention des établissements bancaires sur le problème du contrôle des risques, mal quantifiés par les distributions gaussiennes classiques. On présente les éléments de ce débat, en adoptant comme fil conducteur la postérité des modèles fractals de Mandelbrot dans le sillage desquels s'inscrivent les principaux conflits de modélisation des variations boursières depuis les quarante dernières années. On montre que la question de l'existence de lois d'échelle renvoie à la question plus fondamentale de la nature du temps des marchés.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Walter, 2001. "Les échelles de temps sur les marchés financiers," Post-Print hal-04530012, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04530012
    DOI: 10.1007/BF02990501
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-04530012
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
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