Statistical methods for decision support systems in finance: how Benford’s law predicts financial risk
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
DOI: 10.1007/s10479-022-04742-z
Download full text from publisher
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
- Rosella Castellano & Roy Cerqueti & Giulia Rotundo, 2020. "Exploring the financial risk of a temperature index: a fractional integrated approach," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 284(1), pages 225-242, January.
- Valeriy Gavrishchaka & Supriya Banerjee, 2006. "Support Vector Machine as an Efficient Framework for Stock Market Volatility Forecasting," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 3(2), pages 147-160, April.
- Tim Bollerslev & Benjamin Hood & John Huss & Lasse Heje Pedersen, 2018.
"Risk Everywhere: Modeling and Managing Volatility,"
The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(7), pages 2729-2773.
- Pedersen, Lasse Heje & Bollerslev, Tim & Hood, Benjamin & Huss, John, 2018. "Risk Everywhere: Modeling and Managing Volatility," CEPR Discussion Papers 12687, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Ausloos, Marcel & Castellano, Rosella & Cerqueti, Roy, 2016.
"Regularities and discrepancies of credit default swaps: a data science approach through Benford's law,"
Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 8-17.
- Marcel Ausloos & Rosella Castellano & Roy Cerqueti, 2016. "Regularities and Discrepancies of Credit Default Swaps: a Data Science approach through Benford's Law," Papers 1603.01103, arXiv.org.
- De Ceuster, Marc J. K. & Dhaene, Geert & Schatteman, Tom, 1998. "On the hypothesis of psychological barriers in stock markets and Benford's Law," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 263-279, September.
- David Feldman & Xin Xu, 2018. "Equilibrium-based volatility models of the market portfolio rate of return (peacock tails or stotting gazelles)," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 262(2), pages 493-518, March.
- Maria Rosa Borges, 2010.
"Efficient market hypothesis in European stock markets,"
The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(7), pages 711-726.
- Maria Rosa Borges, 2008. "Efficient Market Hypothesis in European Stock Markets," Working Papers Department of Economics 2008/20, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
- Hales, Douglas N. & Chakravorty, Satya S. & Sridharan, V., 2009. "Testing Benford's Law for improving supply chain decision-making: A field experiment," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(2), pages 606-618, December.
- Shi, Jing & Ausloos, Marcel & Zhu, Tingting, 2018.
"Benford’s law first significant digit and distribution distances for testing the reliability of financial reports in developing countries,"
Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 492(C), pages 878-888.
- Jing Shi & Marcel Ausloos & Tingting Zhu, 2017. "Benford's law first significant digit and distribution distances for testing the reliability of financial reports in developing countries," Papers 1712.00131, arXiv.org.
- Cooper, W.W. & Kingyens, Angela T. & Paradi, Joseph C., 2014. "Two-stage financial risk tolerance assessment using data envelopment analysis," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 233(1), pages 273-280.
- John B. Guerard & Ganlin Xu & Harry Markowitz, 2021. "A further analysis of robust regression modeling and data mining corrections testing in global stocks," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 303(1), pages 175-195, August.
- Gurjeet Dhesi & Bilal Shakeel & Marcel Ausloos, 2021. "Modelling and forecasting the kurtosis and returns distributions of financial markets: irrational fractional Brownian motion model approach," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 299(1), pages 1397-1410, April.
- Carrera, César, 2015.
"Tracking exchange rate management in Latin America,"
Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 35-41.
- César Carrera, 2015. "Tracking exchange rate management in Latin America," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 25(1), pages 35-41, April.
- Carrera, César, 2014. "Tracking the Exchange Rate Management in Latin America," Working Papers 2014-020, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
- César Carrera, 2015. "Tracking the Exchange Rate Management in Latin America," Working Papers 28, Peruvian Economic Association.
- Clippe, Paulette & Ausloos, Marcel, 2012.
"Benford’s law and Theil transform of financial data,"
Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(24), pages 6556-6567.
- Paulette Clippe & Marcel Ausloos, 2012. "Benford's law and Theil transform of financial data," Papers 1208.5896, arXiv.org.
- Michael A. Noakes & Kanshukan Rajaratnam, 2016. "Testing market efficiency on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange using the overlapping serial test," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 243(1), pages 273-300, August.
- Andrew J. Patton & Tarun Ramadorai & Michael Streatfield, 2015.
"Change You Can Believe In? Hedge Fund Data Revisions,"
Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 70(3), pages 963-999, June.
- Patton, Andrew & Streatfield, Michael, 2012. "Change You Can Believe In? Hedge Fund Data Revisions," CEPR Discussion Papers 8898, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Meng, Xiaochun & Taylor, James W., 2020. "Estimating Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall using the intraday low and range data," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 280(1), pages 191-202.
- Tomasz Michalski & Gilles Stoltz, 2013.
"Do Countries Falsify Economic Data Strategically? Some Evidence That They Might,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(2), pages 591-616, May.
- Tomasz Michalski & Gilles Stoltz, 2013. "Do countries falsify economic data strategically? Some evidence that they might," Post-Print halshs-00482106, HAL.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1986.
"Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
- Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
- T. Mir, 2016. "The leading digit distribution of the worldwide illicit financial flows," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 50(1), pages 271-281, January.
- Druică, Elena & Oancea, Bogdan & Vâlsan, Călin, 2018. "Benford's law and the limits of digit analysis," International Journal of Accounting Information Systems, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 75-82.
- du Jardin, Philippe & Séverin, Eric, 2012.
"Forecasting financial failure using a Kohonen map: A comparative study to improve model stability over time,"
European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 221(2), pages 378-396.
- du Jardin, Philippe & Severin, Eric, 2011. "Forecasting financial failure using a Kohonen map: A comparative study to improve model stability over time," MPRA Paper 39935, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 03 Apr 2012.
- Cuiqing Jiang & Zhao Wang & Ruiya Wang & Yong Ding, 2018. "Loan default prediction by combining soft information extracted from descriptive text in online peer-to-peer lending," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 266(1), pages 511-529, July.
- Ding, Zhuanxin & Granger, Clive W. J., 1996. "Modeling volatility persistence of speculative returns: A new approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 185-215, July.
- Ioannis Kyriakou & Parastoo Mousavi & Jens Perch Nielsen & Michael Scholz, 2021. "Forecasting benchmarks of long-term stock returns via machine learning," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 297(1), pages 221-240, February.
- Baillie, Richard T., 1996. "Long memory processes and fractional integration in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 5-59, July.
- Ioana Sorina Deleanu, 2017. "Do Countries Consistently Engage in Misinforming the International Community about Their Efforts to Combat Money Laundering? Evidence Using Benford’s Law," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(1), pages 1-19, January.
- Andrew J. Patton & Tarun Ramadorai & Michael Streatfield, 2015. "Change You Can Believe In? Hedge Fund Data Revisions: Erratum," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 70(4), pages 1862-1862, August.
- Cerqueti, Roy & Ausloos, Marcel, 2015.
"Evidence of economic regularities and disparities of Italian regions from aggregated tax income size data,"
Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 421(C), pages 187-207.
- Roy Cerqueti & Marcel Ausloos, 2014. "Evidence of Economic Regularities and Disparities of Italian Regions From Aggregated Tax Income Size Data," Papers 1411.7880, arXiv.org.
- Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
- Tariq Ahmad Mir & Marcel Ausloos, 2018. "Benford's law: A “sleeping beauty†sleeping in the dirty pages of logarithmic tables," Journal of the Association for Information Science & Technology, Association for Information Science & Technology, vol. 69(3), pages 349-358, March.
- Erdinc Akyildirim & Ahmet Goncu & Ahmet Sensoy, 2021. "Prediction of cryptocurrency returns using machine learning," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 297(1), pages 3-36, February.
- Endre Boros & Yves Crama & Peter Hammer & Toshihide Ibaraki & Alexander Kogan & Kazuhisa Makino, 2011. "Logical analysis of data: classification with justification," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 188(1), pages 33-61, August.
- Efsun Kürüm & Gerhard-Wilhelm Weber & Cem Iyigun, 2018. "Early warning on stock market bubbles via methods of optimization, clustering and inverse problems," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 260(1), pages 293-320, January.
- Ausloos, Marcel & Cerqueti, Roy & Mir, Tariq A., 2017.
"Data science for assessing possible tax income manipulation: The case of Italy,"
Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 238-256.
- Marcel Ausloos & Roy Cerqueti & Tariq A. Mir, 2017. "Data science for assessing possible tax income manipulation: The case of Italy," Papers 1709.02129, arXiv.org.
- Riccioni, Jessica & Cerqueti, Roy, 2018. "Regular paths in financial markets: Investigating the Benford's law," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 186-194.
- Jennifer L. Juergens & Laura Lindsey, 2009. "Getting Out Early: An Analysis of Market Making Activity at the Recommending Analyst's Firm," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(5), pages 2327-2359, October.
- Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
- Pietronero, L. & Tosatti, E. & Tosatti, V. & Vespignani, A., 2001. "Explaining the uneven distribution of numbers in nature: the laws of Benford and Zipf," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 293(1), pages 297-304.
- Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-370, March.
- Vijay Desai & Rakesh Bharati, 1998. "A comparison of linear regression and neural network methods for predicting excess returns on large stocks," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 78(0), pages 127-163, January.
- Cerqueti, Roy & Maggi, Mario, 2021. "Data validity and statistical conformity with Benford’s Law," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
- Nye John & Moul Charles, 2007. "The Political Economy of Numbers: On the Application of Benford's Law to International Macroeconomic Statistics," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-14, July.
- Rita Laura D’Ecclesia & Daniele Clementi, 2021. "Volatility in the stock market: ANN versus parametric models," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 299(1), pages 1101-1127, April.
- repec:hal:journl:hal-02455189 is not listed on IDEAS
- Marco Realdon, 2008. "Credit default swap rates and stock prices," Applied Financial Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(4), pages 241-248.
- Tariq Ahmad Mir & Marcel Ausloos & Roy Cerqueti, 2014. "Benford's law predicted digit distribution of aggregated income taxes: the surprising conformity of Italian cities and regions," Papers 1410.2890, arXiv.org.
- Christos Avdoulas & Stelios Bekiros & Sabri Boubaker, 2018. "Evolutionary-based return forecasting with nonlinear STAR models: evidence from the Eurozone peripheral stock markets," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 262(2), pages 307-333, March.
- Hales, Douglas N. & Sridharan, V. & Radhakrishnan, Abirami & Chakravorty, Satya S. & Siha, Samia M., 2008. "Testing the accuracy of employee-reported data: An inexpensive alternative approach to traditional methods," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 189(3), pages 583-593, September.
- R. K. Jana & Indranil Ghosh & Debojyoti Das, 2021. "A differential evolution-based regression framework for forecasting Bitcoin price," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 306(1), pages 295-320, November.
- Fischer, Thomas & Krauss, Christopher, 2018. "Deep learning with long short-term memory networks for financial market predictions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 270(2), pages 654-669.
- Lian Duan & Lida Xu & Ying Liu & Jun Lee, 2009. "Cluster-based outlier detection," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 168(1), pages 151-168, April.
- Venkatesh, Kamini & Ravi, Vadlamani & Prinzie, Anita & Poel, Dirk Van den, 2014. "Cash demand forecasting in ATMs by clustering and neural networks," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 232(2), pages 383-392.
- Bernhard Rauch & Max G�ttsche & Gernot Br�hler & Thomas Kronfeld, 2014. "Deficit versus social statistics: empirical evidence for the effectiveness of Benford's law," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(3), pages 147-151, February.
- P. Du Jardin & E. Séverin, 2012. "Forecasting financial failure using a Kohonen map: a comparative study to improve bankruptcy model over time," Post-Print hal-00801853, HAL.
- Douglas G. Santos & Flavio A. Ziegelmann, 2014. "Volatility Forecasting via MIDAS, HAR and their Combination: An Empirical Comparative Study for IBOVESPA," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(4), pages 284-299, July.
- Gilles Zumbach, 2004. "Volatility processes and volatility forecast with long memory," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 70-86.
- Kizilaslan, Recep & Freund, Steven & Iseri, Ali, 2016. "A data analytic approach to forecasting daily stock returns in an emerging marketAuthor-Name: Oztekin, Asil," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 253(3), pages 697-710.
- Mazin Al Janabi, 2013. "Optimal and coherent economic-capital structures: evidence from long and short-sales trading positions under illiquid market perspectives," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 205(1), pages 109-139, May.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Ausloos, Marcel & Ficcadenti, Valerio & Dhesi, Gurjeet & Shakeel, Muhammad, 2021.
"Benford’s laws tests on S&P500 daily closing values and the corresponding daily log-returns both point to huge non-conformity,"
Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 574(C).
- Marcel Ausloos & Valerio Ficcadenti & Gurjeet Dhesi & Muhammad Shakeel, 2021. "Benford's laws tests on S&P500 daily closing values and the corresponding daily log-returns both point to huge non-conformity," Papers 2104.07962, arXiv.org.
- Cerqueti, Roy & Maggi, Mario, 2021. "Data validity and statistical conformity with Benford’s Law," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
- Roy Cerqueti & Claudio Lupi, 2021.
"Some New Tests of Conformity with Benford’s Law,"
Stats, MDPI, vol. 4(3), pages 1-17, September.
- Roy Cerqueti & C Lupi, 2021. "Some New Tests of Conformity with Benford’s Laws," Post-Print hal-03789183, HAL.
- Riccioni, Jessica & Cerqueti, Roy, 2018. "Regular paths in financial markets: Investigating the Benford's law," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 186-194.
- Ausloos, Marcel & Cerqueti, Roy & Mir, Tariq A., 2017.
"Data science for assessing possible tax income manipulation: The case of Italy,"
Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 238-256.
- Marcel Ausloos & Roy Cerqueti & Tariq A. Mir, 2017. "Data science for assessing possible tax income manipulation: The case of Italy," Papers 1709.02129, arXiv.org.
- Arezzo, Maria Felice & Cerqueti, Roy, 2023. "A Benford’s Law view of inspections’ reasonability," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 632(P1).
- Franses,Philip Hans & Dijk,Dick van & Opschoor,Anne, 2014.
"Time Series Models for Business and Economic Forecasting,"
Cambridge Books,
Cambridge University Press, number 9780521520911, January.
- Franses,Philip Hans & Dijk,Dick van & Opschoor,Anne, 2014. "Time Series Models for Business and Economic Forecasting," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521817707, January.
- Alexander Subbotin & Thierry Chauveau & Kateryna Shapovalova, 2009. "Volatility Models: from GARCH to Multi-Horizon Cascades," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00390636, HAL.
- Subbotin, Alexandre, 2009. "Volatility Models: from Conditional Heteroscedasticity to Cascades at Multiple Horizons," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 15(3), pages 94-138.
- Ausloos, Marcel & Cerqueti, Roy & Bartolacci, Francesca & Castellano, Nicola G., 2018.
"SME investment best strategies. Outliers for assessing how to optimize performance,"
Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 509(C), pages 754-765.
- Marcel Ausloos & Roy Cerqueti & Francesca Bartolacci & Nicola G. Castellano, 2018. "SME investment best strategies. Outliers for assessing how to optimize performance," Papers 1807.09583, arXiv.org.
- Deniz Erdemlioglu & Sébastien Laurent & Christopher J. Neely, 2013.
"Econometric modeling of exchange rate volatility and jumps,"
Chapters, in: Adrian R. Bell & Chris Brooks & Marcel Prokopczuk (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Finance, chapter 16, pages 373-427,
Edward Elgar Publishing.
- Deniz Erdemlioglu & Sebastien Laurent & Christopher J. Neely, 2012. "Econometric modeling of exchange rate volatility and jumps," Working Papers 2012-008, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Brooks, Robert D. & Faff, Robert W. & McKenzie, Michael D. & Mitchell, Heather, 2000. "A multi-country study of power ARCH models and national stock market returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 377-397, June.
- Pınar Kaya Soylu & Mustafa Okur & Özgür Çatıkkaş & Z. Ayca Altintig, 2020. "Long Memory in the Volatility of Selected Cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-21, May.
- Tzouras, Spilios & Anagnostopoulos, Christoforos & McCoy, Emma, 2015. "Financial time series modeling using the Hurst exponent," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 425(C), pages 50-68.
- Jovanovic, Franck & Schinckus, Christophe, 2017. "Econophysics and Financial Economics: An Emerging Dialogue," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780190205034.
- Franses,Philip Hans & Dijk,Dick van, 2000.
"Non-Linear Time Series Models in Empirical Finance,"
Cambridge Books,
Cambridge University Press, number 9780521779654, November.
- Franses,Philip Hans & Dijk,Dick van, 2000. "Non-Linear Time Series Models in Empirical Finance," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521770415, January.
- Bogdan Vasile Ileanu & Marcel Ausloos & Claudiu Herteliu & Marian Pompiliu Cristescu, 2019. "Intriguing behavior when testing the impact of quotation marks usage in Google search results," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 53(5), pages 2507-2519, September.
- BAUWENS, Luc & HAFNER, Christian & LAURENT, Sébastien, 2011.
"Volatility models,"
LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE
2011058, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Bauwens, L. & Hafner C. & Laurent, S., 2011. "Volatility Models," LIDAM Discussion Papers ISBA 2011044, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
- Bauwens, L. & Hafner, C. & Laurent, S., 2012. "Volatility Models," LIDAM Reprints ISBA 2012028, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
- Herteliu, Claudiu & Jianu, Ionel & Dragan, Irina Maria & Apostu, Simona & Luchian, Iuliana, 2021. "Testing Benford’s Laws (non)conformity within disclosed companies’ financial statements among hospitality industry in Romania," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 582(C).
- Pedro J. F. de Lima & Michelle L. Barnes, 2000. "Modeling Financial Volatility: Extreme Observations, Nonlinearities and Nonstationarities," School of Economics and Public Policy Working Papers 2000-05, University of Adelaide, School of Economics and Public Policy.
More about this item
Keywords
Data regularity; $$chi ^2$$ χ 2 test; Financial risk prediction; Statistical analysis;All these keywords.
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:annopr:v:342:y:2024:i:3:d:10.1007_s10479-022-04742-z. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.