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Potential Bottleneck in the Energy Transition: the Case of Cobalt in an Accelerating Electro-Mobility World

Author

Listed:
  • Gondia Sokhna Seck

    (IFPEN - IFP Energies nouvelles)

  • Emmanuel Hache

    (IFPEN - IFP Energies nouvelles, The French Institute for International and Strategic Affairs, (IRIS), EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Charlène Barnet

    (IFPEN - IFP Energies nouvelles)

Abstract

Within the context of the energy transition, decarbonization of the transport sector is the cornerstone of many public policies. As a key component in the cathodes of lithium-ion batteries and nickel metal hydride batteries used in electric or hybrid vehicles, cobalt is expected to face a dynamic demand in the coming decades. Numerous questions are arising regarding the criticality risks of this key metal of the energy transition. In order to assess the availability of cobalt until 2050, we rely on our linear programming world energy-transport model, TIAM-IFPEN. Two climate scenarios were considered (2 °C and 4 °C), each with two different mobility scenarios (Business-as-Usual mobility and Sustainable mobility) and for each mobility scenario, three lithium-ion battery chemistry mix trajectories were considered (high, central and low cobalt content) by 2050. Results show that in the most stringent scenario 83,2% of cobalt resources identified in 2013 would be extracted from the ground by 2050 to satisfy global consumption. Two Thirds of world production is from Africa while China consumes 1/3 of the total demand by 2050. We identify several ways to meet the increasing demand for cobalt resources. Public policies must therefore focus on 3 complementary axes: promoting the development of sustainable mobility; prioritizing low cobalt content batteries in electric vehicles; and concentrating efforts on the implementation and the deployment of a system for recovering, sorting and recycling waste.

Suggested Citation

  • Gondia Sokhna Seck & Emmanuel Hache & Charlène Barnet, 2022. "Potential Bottleneck in the Energy Transition: the Case of Cobalt in an Accelerating Electro-Mobility World," Post-Print hal-03563296, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03563296
    DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2021.102516
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://ifp.hal.science/hal-03563296
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    2. Anni Orola & Anna Härri & Jarkko Levänen & Ville Uusitalo & Stig Irving Olsen, 2022. "Assessing WELBY Social Life Cycle Assessment Approach through Cobalt Mining Case Study," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(18), pages 1-26, September.
    3. Ali, Hayder & Khan, Hassan Abbas & Pecht, Michael, 2022. "Preprocessing of spent lithium-ion batteries for recycling: Need, methods, and trends," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    4. Seck, Gondia Sokhna & Hache, Emmanuel & D'Herbemont, Vincent & Guyot, Mathis & Malbec, Louis-Marie, 2023. "Hydrogen development in Europe: Estimating material consumption in net zero emissions scenarios," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    5. Islam, Md. Monirul & Sohag, Kazi & Mariev, Oleg, 2023. "Geopolitical risks and mineral-driven renewable energy generation in China: A decomposed analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    6. Hamid M. Pouran & Seyed M. Karimi & Mariana Padilha Campos Lopes & Yong Sheng, 2022. "What China’s Environmental Policy Means for PV Solar, Electric Vehicles, and Carbon Capture and Storage Technologies," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(23), pages 1-13, November.
    7. Hoarau, Quentin & Lorang, Etienne, 2022. "An assessment of the European regulation on battery recycling for electric vehicles," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    8. Compagnoni, Marco & Grazzi, Marco & Pieri, Fabio & Tomasi, Chiara, 2023. "Extended producer responsibility and trade flows in waste: The case of batteries," FEEM Working Papers 338789, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    9. Alma Delia Torres-Rivera & Angel de Jesus Mc Namara Valdes & Rodrigo Florencio Da Silva, 2023. "The Resilience of the Renewable Energy Electromobility Supply Chain: Review and Trends," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-21, July.
    10. Restrepo, Natalia & Ceballos, Juan Camilo & Uribe, Jorge M., 2023. "Risk spillovers of critical metals firms," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(PB).
    11. Md. Monirul Islam & Kazi Sohag & Faheem ur Rehman, 2022. "Do Geopolitical Tensions and Economic Policy Uncertainties Reorient Mineral Imports in the USA? A Fat-Tailed Data Analysis Using Novel Quantile Approaches," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-25, December.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Energy Transition; Transport Sector; Critical Raw Materials; EV Battery; Cobalt; Bottom-up Modeling;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q32 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Exhaustible Resources and Economic Development
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General
    • Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources
    • R40 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - General
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis

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