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The relative power of individual distancing efforts and public policies to curb the COVID-19 epidemics

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  • Cécile Aubert

    (TSE-R - Toulouse School of Economics - UT Capitole - Université Toulouse Capitole - UT - Université de Toulouse - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, GREThA - Groupe de Recherche en Economie Théorique et Appliquée - UB - Université de Bordeaux - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Emmanuelle Augeraud-Véron

    (GREThA - Groupe de Recherche en Economie Théorique et Appliquée - UB - Université de Bordeaux - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

Lockdown curbs the COVID-19 epidemics but at huge costs. Public debates question its impact compared to reliance on individual responsibility. We study how rationally chosen self-protective behavior impacts the spread of the epidemics and interacts with policies. We first assess the value of lockdown in terms of mortality compared to a counterfactual scenario that incorporates self-protection efforts; and second, assess how individual behavior modify the epidemic dynamics when public regulations change. We couple an SLIAR model, that includes asymptomatic transmission, with utility maximization: Individuals trade off economic and wellbeing costs from physical distancing with a lower infection risk. Physical distancing effort depends on risk aversion, perceptions of the epidemics and average distancing effort in the population. Rational distancing effort is computed as a Nash Equilibrium. Equilibrium effort differs markedly from constant, stochastic or proportional contacts reduction. It adjusts to daily incidence of hospitalization in a way that creates a slightly decreasing plateau in epidemic prevalence. Calibration on French data shows that a business-as-usual benchmark yields an overestimation of the number of deaths by a factor of 10 compared to benchmarks with equilibrium efforts. However, lockdown saves nearly twice as many lives as individual efforts alone. Public policies post-lockdown have a limited impact as they partly crowd out individual efforts. Communication that increases risk salience is more effective.

Suggested Citation

  • Cécile Aubert & Emmanuelle Augeraud-Véron, 2021. "The relative power of individual distancing efforts and public policies to curb the COVID-19 epidemics," Post-Print hal-03239997, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-03239997
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0250764
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-03239997
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    1. Aminjonov, Ulugbek & Bargain, Olivier & Bernard, Tanguy, 2023. "Gimme shelter. Social distancing and income support in times of pandemic," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    2. José Juan Carrión-Martínez & Cristina Pinel-Martínez & María Dolores Pérez-Esteban & Isabel María Román-Sánchez, 2021. "Family and School Relationship during COVID-19 Pandemic: A Systematic Review," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(21), pages 1-18, November.
    3. Fezzi, Carlo & Fanghella, Valeria, 2021. "Tracking GDP in real-time using electricity market data: Insights from the first wave of COVID-19 across Europe," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    4. Caixia Wang & Huijie Li, 2022. "Public Compliance Matters in Evidence-Based Public Health Policy: Evidence from Evaluating Social Distancing in the First Wave of COVID-19," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(7), pages 1-13, March.
    5. Aubert, Cécile & Dang, Hai-Anh H & Nguyen, Manh-Hung, 2022. "The Unequal Impact of the COVID Pandemic: Theory and Evidence on Health and Economic Outcomes for Different Income Groups," IZA Discussion Papers 15396, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

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    Keywords

    Medical risk factors; COVID 19; Public Policy; Decision making; Epidemiology; Game theory; France; Health economics;
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