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Is the Stagnation of Individual Car Travel a General Phenomenon in France? A Time-Series Analysis by Zone of Residence and Standard of Living

Author

Listed:
  • Richard Grimal

    (SETRA - Service d'Etudes Techniques des Routes et Autoroutes - Avant création Cerema, Cerema Equipe-projet ESPRIM - Centre d'Etudes et d'Expertise sur les Risques, l'Environnement, la Mobilité et l'Aménagement - Equipe-projet ESPRIM - Cerema - Centre d'Etudes et d'Expertise sur les Risques, l'Environnement, la Mobilité et l'Aménagement)

  • Roger Collet

    (INRETS/DEST - Département Economie et Sociologie des Transports - INRETS - Institut National de Recherche sur les Transports et leur Sécurité)

  • Jean-Loup Madre

    (INRETS/DEST - Département Economie et Sociologie des Transports - INRETS - Institut National de Recherche sur les Transports et leur Sécurité)

Abstract

At the aggregate level, the growth in individual car use (in vehicle*kilometres per adult) over time has considerably slowed down in France in the 2000s, but is this tendency observed whatever the area and standard of living? Relying on annual data drawn from the French Household Continuous Surveys (1974–1994) and the Car Fleet surveys (1994–2010), time-series of annual mileage per adult is compared in the four quartiles of the household income scale, in three types of zone: core cities, suburbs and low-density areas. We observe that the recent stagnation of individual car use is a general phenomenon, as it has occurred in all the income groups and in all the areas, but at different levels and moments in time nonetheless. In the 2000s, fuel price has dramatically increased, providing a likely explanation for the slowdown observed in the time-series. Using a Chapman–Richards growth model where the saturation level depends on economic factors, we disentangle their effect from the diffusion process of individual car use over time. As expected, the saturation level is found to be an increasing function of income, and a decreasing function of fuel price and population density. Besides, the estimation results show that the diffusion of individual car use among low-income households in 2010 was still ongoing in all the types of zone, while it was ending for high-income households. Moreover, the model assumes that the fuel price sensitivity of individual car use is decreasing as the standard of living raises: it is probably the combination of these effects that has led the annual mileage per adult to stabilize in the 2000s.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard Grimal & Roger Collet & Jean-Loup Madre, 2013. "Is the Stagnation of Individual Car Travel a General Phenomenon in France? A Time-Series Analysis by Zone of Residence and Standard of Living," Post-Print hal-02162249, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02162249
    DOI: 10.1080/01441647.2013.801930
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Bastian, Anne & Börjesson, Maria, 2014. "It's the economy, stupid: increasing fuel price is enough to explain Peak Car in Sweden," Working papers in Transport Economics 2014:15, CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI).
    2. Tammaru, Tiit & Sevtsuk, Andres & Witlox, Frank, 2023. "Towards an equity-centred model of sustainable mobility: Integrating inequality and segregation challenges in the green mobility transition," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    3. Sotirios Thanos & Maria Kamargianni & Andreas Schäfer, 2018. "Car Travel Demand: Spillovers and Asymmetric Price Effects in a Spatial Setting," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 52(3), pages 621-636, June.
    4. Elzbieta Szymanska & Zofia Koloszko-Chomentowska, 2022. "Sustainable Innovative Mobility Solutions Preferred by Inhabitants of Rural Areas—The Case of Lithuania and Poland," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-21, May.
    5. Meng Zhou & Donggen Wang, 2019. "Investigating inter-generational changes in activity-travel behavior: a disaggregate approach," Transportation, Springer, vol. 46(5), pages 1643-1687, October.
    6. Bussière, Yves D. & Madre, Jean-Loup & Tapia-Villarreal, Irving, 2019. "Will peak car observed in the North occur in the South? A demographic approach with case studies of Montreal, Lille, Juarez and Puebla," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 39-54.
    7. Lyons, Glenn & Davidson, Cody, 2016. "Guidance for transport planning and policymaking in the face of an uncertain future," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 104-116.
    8. Truffer, Bernhard & Schippl, Jens & Fleischer, Torsten, 2017. "Decentering technology in technology assessment: prospects for socio-technical transitions in electric mobility in Germany," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 34-48.
    9. Richard Grimal, 2017. "Modeling Auto-Mobility: Combining Cohort Analysis with Panel Data Econometrics," Post-Print hal-02162281, HAL.
    10. Richard Grimal, 2018. "Faut-Il Reduire L'Usage De La Voiture ? Couts Sociaux Et Benefices Environnementaux De Differents Scenarios Economiques Et Technologiques A L'Horizon 2060," Post-Print hal-02164869, HAL.
    11. Bastian, Anne & Börjesson, Maria, 2015. "Peak car? Drivers of the recent decline in Swedish car use," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 94-102.
    12. Richard Grimal, 2019. "Is there a limit to car traffic growth ? Potential demand and convergence paths towards saturation," Post-Print hal-02164984, HAL.
    13. Richard Grimal, 2017. "Why Change Behaviors ? Cost-Benefit Analysis Of Different Strategic Scenarios With Respect To Equity And Sustainability," Post-Print hal-02165011, HAL.
    14. Ortar, Nathalie, 2018. "Dealing with energy crises: Working and living arrangements in peri-urban France," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 72-78.
    15. Toshiyuki Yamamoto & Jean-Loup Madre & Matthieu Lapparent & Roger Collet, 2020. "A random heaping model of annual vehicle kilometres travelled considering heterogeneous approximation in reporting," Transportation, Springer, vol. 47(3), pages 1027-1045, June.
    16. Zhao, Pengjun, 2014. "Private motorised urban mobility in China’s large cities: the social causes of change and an agenda for future research," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 53-63.

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