IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/hal/journl/hal-02162281.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Modeling Auto-Mobility: Combining Cohort Analysis with Panel Data Econometrics

Author

Listed:
  • Richard Grimal

    (Cerema Equipe-projet ESPRIM - Centre d'Etudes et d'Expertise sur les Risques, l'Environnement, la Mobilité et l'Aménagement - Equipe-projet ESPRIM - Cerema - Centre d'Etudes et d'Expertise sur les Risques, l'Environnement, la Mobilité et l'Aménagement)

Abstract

In this paper, we present an ad hoc model for car traffic generation, which is used to make projections in 2060, according to a number of scenarios based on various assumptions about fuel prices, fuel efficiency, income growth and travel behaviors of new generations. Two sets of scenarios are successively tested, corresponding either to the "business as usual" case, or to a declining appetite for car ownership in new generations. Projection results serve to discuss the "peak car" hypothesis of a decline to come in average car travel per adult. The modelling framework is based on a sequential and individual approach to car traffic generation where the age-cohort framework is combined with panel data econometrics. Projection results suggest that under stable behaviors, "peak car" is less likely to happen than a plateau. A decline in car travel could happen, nonetheless, in case of changing behaviors in new generations.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard Grimal, 2017. "Modeling Auto-Mobility: Combining Cohort Analysis with Panel Data Econometrics," Post-Print hal-02162281, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02162281
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-02162281
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hal.science/hal-02162281/document
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jean-Loup Madre & Yves D. Bussière & Roger Collet & Irving Tapia Villareal, 2012. "Are we Heading Towards a Reversal of the Trend for Ever-Greater Mobility?," International Transport Forum Discussion Papers 2012/16, OECD Publishing.
    2. Masanao Aoki & Hiroshi Yoshikawa, 2004. "Demand saturation – creation and economic growth," Chapters, in: Paolo Onofri (ed.), The Economics of an Ageing Population, chapter 4, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    3. Richard Grimal & Roger Collet & Jean-Loup Madre, 2013. "Is the Stagnation of Individual Car Travel a General Phenomenon in France? A Time-Series Analysis by Zone of Residence and Standard of Living," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(3), pages 291-309, May.
    4. repec:cai:popine:popu_p1996_51n4-5_0977 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Gardes, Francois & Langlois, Simon & Richaudeau, Didier, 1996. "Cross-section versus time-series income elasticities of Canadian consumption," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 169-175, May.
    6. Richard Grimal & Roger Collet & Jean-Loup Madre, 2013. "Is the Stagnation of Individual Car Travel a General Phenomenon in France? A Time-Series Analysis by Zone of Residence and Standard of Living," Post-Print hal-02162249, HAL.
    7. Mundlak, Yair, 1978. "On the Pooling of Time Series and Cross Section Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 69-85, January.
    8. Heckman, James, 2013. "Sample selection bias as a specification error," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 31(3), pages 129-137.
    9. Dargay, Joyce & Gately, Dermot, 1999. "Income's effect on car and vehicle ownership, worldwide: 1960-2015," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 101-138, February.
    10. Fred Mannering & Clifford Winston, 1985. "A Dynamic Empirical Analysis of Household Vehicle Ownership and Utilization," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 16(2), pages 215-236, Summer.
    11. Bhat, Chandra R. & Pulugurta, Vamsi, 1998. "A comparison of two alternative behavioral choice mechanisms for household auto ownership decisions," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 61-75, January.
    12. Dargay, Joyce M, 2001. "The effect of income on car ownership: evidence of asymmetry," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 35(9), pages 807-821, November.
    13. Kitamura, Ryuichi, 1990. "Panel Analysis in Transportation Planning: An Overview," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt86v0f7zh, University of California Transportation Center.
    14. Ingram, Gregory K. & Zhi Liu, 1999. "Determinants of motorization and road provision," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2042, The World Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Richard Grimal, 2018. "Faut-Il Reduire L'Usage De La Voiture ? Couts Sociaux Et Benefices Environnementaux De Differents Scenarios Economiques Et Technologiques A L'Horizon 2060," Post-Print hal-02164869, HAL.
    2. Richard Grimal, 2019. "Is there a limit to car traffic growth ? Potential demand and convergence paths towards saturation," Post-Print hal-02164984, HAL.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bussière, Yves D. & Madre, Jean-Loup & Tapia-Villarreal, Irving, 2019. "Will peak car observed in the North occur in the South? A demographic approach with case studies of Montreal, Lille, Juarez and Puebla," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 39-54.
    2. Salon, Deborah, 2009. "Neighborhoods, cars, and commuting in New York City: A discrete choice approach," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 180-196, February.
    3. Richard Grimal, 2019. "Is there a limit to car traffic growth ? Potential demand and convergence paths towards saturation," Post-Print hal-02164984, HAL.
    4. Quaglione, Davide & Cassetta, Ernesto & Crociata, Alessandro & Marra, Alessandro & Sarra, Alessandro, 2019. "An assessment of the role of cultural capital on sustainable mobility behaviours: Conceptual framework and empirical evidence," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 24-34.
    5. Salon, Deborah, 2008. "Neighborhoods, Cars, and Commuting in New York City: A Discrete Choice Approach," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt1673h3w3, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    6. Shaheen, Susan & Kemmerer, Charlene, 2008. "Smart Parking Linked to Transit: Lessons Learned from the Field Test in San Francisco Bay Area of California," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt2bd6m65k, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    7. Zhao, Pengjun, 2014. "Private motorised urban mobility in China’s large cities: the social causes of change and an agenda for future research," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 53-63.
    8. Richard Grimal, 2018. "Faut-Il Reduire L'Usage De La Voiture ? Couts Sociaux Et Benefices Environnementaux De Differents Scenarios Economiques Et Technologiques A L'Horizon 2060," Post-Print hal-02164869, HAL.
    9. Javier Aliaga Lordemann & Alejandra Terán Orsini, 2020. "Vehicle fleets path and non-linear ownership elasticity for Bolivia, 2000-2035," Development Research Working Paper Series 04/2020, Institute for Advanced Development Studies.
    10. He, Sylvia Y. & Thøgersen, John, 2017. "The impact of attitudes and perceptions on travel mode choice and car ownership in a Chinese megacity: The case of Guangzhou," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 57-67.
    11. Toshiyuki Yamamoto & Jean-Loup Madre & Matthieu Lapparent & Roger Collet, 2020. "A random heaping model of annual vehicle kilometres travelled considering heterogeneous approximation in reporting," Transportation, Springer, vol. 47(3), pages 1027-1045, June.
    12. Whelan, Gerard, 2007. "Modelling car ownership in Great Britain," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 205-219, March.
    13. Salon, Deborah, 2006. "Cars and the City: An Investigation of Transportation and Residential Location Choices in New York City," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt1br223vz, University of California Transportation Center.
    14. Sotirios Thanos & Maria Kamargianni & Andreas Schäfer, 2018. "Car Travel Demand: Spillovers and Asymmetric Price Effects in a Spatial Setting," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 52(3), pages 621-636, June.
    15. Nolan, Anne, 2010. "A dynamic analysis of household car ownership," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 44(6), pages 446-455, July.
    16. Tobias Brändle & Laszlo Goerke, 2018. "The one constant: a causal effect of collective bargaining on employment growth? Evidence from German linked‐employer‐employee data," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 65(5), pages 445-478, November.
    17. François Gardes, 2021. "Endogenous Prices in a Riemannian Geometry Framework," Post-Print halshs-03325414, HAL.
    18. Bastian, Anne & Börjesson, Maria, 2014. "It's the economy, stupid: increasing fuel price is enough to explain Peak Car in Sweden," Working papers in Transport Economics 2014:15, CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI).
    19. Tammaru, Tiit & Sevtsuk, Andres & Witlox, Frank, 2023. "Towards an equity-centred model of sustainable mobility: Integrating inequality and segregation challenges in the green mobility transition," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    20. Jou, Rong-Chang & Huang, Wen-Hsiu & Wu, Yuan-Chan & Chao, Ming-Che, 2012. "The asymmetric income effect on household vehicle ownership in Taiwan: A threshold cointegration approach," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 46(4), pages 696-706.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02162281. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: CCSD (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.